Will there be a Grexit?

[BrilloPad]

I believe pensions and government pay is due tomorrow? If that is paid then it might assuage the great unwashed.

[d000hg]

How is this still going on?

[Unix]

How is this still going on?

Because the European project is flawed, a currency and monetary policy union without fiscal policy union is doomed to fail. This is the start of the end. Either there will be a United States of Europe (fiscal policy union) or the whole thing will unravel.

[eek]

Because the European project is flawed, a currency and monetary policy union without fiscal policy union is doomed to fail. This is the start of the end. Either there will be a United States of Europe (fiscal policy union) or the whole thing will unravel.

the whole thing will unravel.. Given that this isn't even a very large country needing help I really can't see things working out when Italy or France hits a similar issue...

And that's before you realise that every decision made throughout this story has either made the issue worse or just skipped the answering the actual question part...

[sal]

I hope the Greek people will look forward 6 months. There will be short term pain. If they leave the Euro and devalue then in 6 months they will be recovering with good prospects.

If a deal is done now, it just kicks the can down the road. Nothing will get better - in fact things will just get worse.

You have obviously never lived in a country with high/hyper inflation caused by currency devaluation. Even if there is no some sort of mandatory currency conversion of the bank deposits from Euro to Drahma (or w/e), what will happen is that people will start getting paid in Drahmas. The problem comes with all the imported goods as the importers will have to pay Euro (or w/e) to the supplier but only get Drahmas in return. So the first month a Greek will be able to by X amount of goods with his salary of Y Drahma, as the Drahma quickly devaluates against the Euro due to the insane money printing, the second month they will be only able to afford less and less goods, causing them to dip into their savings in Euro. At some point their Euro savings will run out and they will be feked.

And the big problem is that even if they manage to please the masses for a while printing Drahmas and trowing it at the people, this doesn't help their debts which are in Euro, IMF doesn't want their stinking Drahmas.

It's like being a household that racked a mountain of cc debt, went to Wonga to cover the monthly cc payments and now thinking that using monopoly money will help them get out of the mess... No what will help is to shackle the entire family with ball and chain and bring them to the quarry to crush stones until they pay out their debts.

[BrilloPad]

How is this still going on?

See the quotes below :-

I think a week of being shown what the Greek banks will look like without EU support will push most people to accept the deal rather than follow Syriza's recomendation to reject it

After week of not getting money out the ATM, it's a no brainer.

"Do you want money out the ATM, yes or no".

People will vote to delay the inevitable. Even though the longer it goes on, the worse it will be.

[Unix]

.....
And the big problem is that even if they manage to please the masses for a while printing Drahmas and trowing it at the people, this doesn't help their debts which are in Euro, IMF doesn't want their stinking Drahmas.

It's like being a household that racked a mountain of cc debt, went to Wonga to cover the monthly cc payments and now thinking that using monopoly money will help them get out of the mess... No what will help is to shackle the entire family with ball and chain and bring them to the quarry to crush stones until they pay out their debts.

They won't have any debts if they default though.

[SimonMac]

I hope the Greek people will look forward 6 months. There will be short term pain. If they leave the Euro and devalue then in 6 months they will be recovering with good prospects.

If a deal is done now, it just kicks the can down the road. Nothing will get better - in fact things will just get worse.

They have been looking forward 6 months for the last 5 years!

[SimonMac]

They won't have any debts if they default though.

But unless they are running a surplus they will get debts very quickly again

[VectraMan]

Because the European project is flawed, a currency and monetary policy union without fiscal policy union is doomed to fail. This is the start of the end. Either there will be a United States of Europe (fiscal policy union) or the whole thing will unravel.

The problem is the debt and the chronic overspending, not the currency. Okay so if they had their own currency maybe it wouldn't have been so bad, and what you say isn't wrong, but what should be learned is that the Eurozone should have had stricter criteria on who could enter. No matter what, the northern Eurozone countries are likely to continue successfully with The Euro even if it does lose a few members.

If you hadn't noticed, the UK also has problems with a debt mountain, unpopular austerity, and political instability as a result. It's not a Euro problem.

As Sal says, a Grexit isn't exactly going to solve their problems overnight, though it might make Greece a cheap place to go on holiday again (as long as you don't mind all the beggars).