Greece/EURO/shares etc...

[BrilloPad]

If anything, by not accepting the austerity measures laid down by the EU (not just Germany) then they're in for very tough times ahead, in fact they're probably ****ed.

In the short to medium term, yes. But once they have a free floating currency then recovery can start. A few years ago they said Iceland was doomed - now it seems to be doing okay.

Of course when the grreks refusae to pay quite a few banks are going to be stuffed. Especially those who have done the "carry trade" using funds borrowed at 1% recently.

[AtW]

In the short to medium term, yes. But once they have a free floating currency then recovery can start. A few years ago they said Iceland was doomed - now it seems to be doing okay.

Iceland:

Exports: $5.3 billion (2011 est.)
Imports: $4.495 billion (2011 est.)

Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/ic.html

See that the difference is around 25% and they EXPORT more than they import, this means given debt write off (which took place) they can be ok because they actually live within their means.

Now let's look at Greece:

Exports: $26.64 billion (2011 est.)
Imports: $65.79 billion (2011 est.)

See that Greece consumes A LOT more, this means if they had their own currency it will go down and they won't be able to afford previous lifestyle. Their only hope not to have REALLY painful austerity and less than 100% inflation is to stick with euros.

Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/gr.html

[Old Hack]

I am no economist, but the consumerism that befell Greece only really started post Euro, when I was backpacking there in the 80's, they all had 10% of not very much anyway.


They can open the printing presses a la Merv, exports become much cheaper, holidays much cheaper and I always did like a bit of retsina once or twice a year.


May even be a good place to look at buying a bolt hole.


I can see the down sides of them leaving the euro, but I don't think it will be the armegeddon predicted by some people.


When did Argentina default?

[BrilloPad]

When did Argentina default?

Which time? They default every few years.

[Old Hack]

Which time? They default every few years.

Haha, yes, very true. I am sure the last one was in the early 90's wasn't it? Banks locked doors overnight, etc. They seemed to have recovered rather well in a shortish while, and as someone else has offered, Iceland haven't done too bad since telling the EU and Kent County Council to go and multiply

[AtW]

They can open the printing presses a la Merv, exports become much cheaper, holidays much cheaper and I always did like a bit of retsina once or twice a year.

Cheaper holidays for you would mean they get LESS hard currency.

Meanwhile their essential goods priced in hard currency will use up higher proportion of their income - the cut backs they'd have to make would be total crazy. If anything they'll be forced to increase prices for their services, ie - much more expensive booze.

[eek]

Cheaper holidays for you would mean they get LESS hard currency.

Meanwhile their essential goods priced in hard currency will use up higher proportion of their income - the cut backs they'd have to make would be total crazy. If anything they'll be forced to increase prices for their services, ie - much more expensive booze.

I Love your current Avatar Atw. I'm impressed you are so self aware.

[AtW]

I Love your current Avatar Atw. I'm impressed you are so self aware.

[lukemg]

On the plus side, itching to fill me ISA and SIPP boots with lovely shares....

[Old Hack]

Cheaper holidays for you would mean they get LESS hard currency.

Meanwhile their essential goods priced in hard currency will use up higher proportion of their income - the cut backs they'd have to make would be total crazy. If anything they'll be forced to increase prices for their services, ie - much more expensive booze.

What goods would be based on hard currency?

What I am trying to say, is that the world wouldn't end, they'd live, they'd adjust, like they did before. Greece has never been a rich country, nor a particularly indebted one, imo (or should I say iirc), they done this since joining the euro. When I was there in the 80's, they seemed to be fairly robust, self contained people. I don't see the fianancial, or personal armegeddon others are predicting. Look to Iceland, look to Argentina. IIRC, loads of International businesses piled out of Iceland when they went down the default route, and they simply readjusted. Smaller population, yes, but I don't believe it's that big a deal; you don't have any credit anymore, so you live on what you have. It's not like they have any credit now, is it, hence the massive austerity drive. When the IMF/EU gave them millions, they didn't give them millions, they held off their creditors. I can't see it being any different by an open default, as opposed to a closed door one.