Greece/EURO/shares etc...

[AtW]

What goods would be based on hard currency?

Everything they currently buy for their extensive imports: fuel, cloth, building materials, cars etc etc.

[Old Hack]

Everything they currently buy for their extensive imports: fuel, cloth, building materials, cars etc etc.

Any new cars they bought, I'd agree. But if I was worried about money, a new car would be last on my list of things to buy. Fuel, well, that's an issue most in the EU have to worry about and will only get worse, but I see your point there. Cloth? Grown there throughout the country. Building materials? I am sure they're pretty self sufficient there too.

The Main thing they import is fuel oil, aviation goods, cars and Military items. They actually export fuel oil products too, as well as building materials, telco equipment, tobacco, machinery, etc.

I just don't think it's as cut and dried as you, thats all.

I'm all for a default to shake it up.

[AtW]

I just don't think it's as cut and dried as you, thats all.

It is, look at numbers I posted - they import FAR more than what they export. FAR MORE - even if all their imports were luxury goods that people can live without then still suddenly reducing imports by 50% would be extremely painful - since they won't earn as much hard currency their exports would also fall.

Basically they'd be totally and utterly ****ed if they get out of euro zone.

[Old Hack]

It is, look at numbers I posted - they import FAR more than what they export. FAR MORE - even if all their imports were luxury goods that people can live without then still suddenly reducing imports by 50% would be extremely painful - since they won't earn as much hard currency their exports would also fall.

Basically they'd be totally and utterly ****ed if they get out of euro zone.

OK, thats cool to disagree.

I don't see how their exports will fall, especially as they will appear cheaper. Reducing imports will be tough, in some respects, but not in others; farms aren't going to fail as Stavros no longer has the money to buy an X5, but if they retain an ability to build their own goods, which I think they have (they have a great area of expertise in mining equipment so I just found out), then they'll manage. They are a robust lot, historically, and would fair better than most in the same situation.

I genuinely believe that no longer having access to luxury goods isnt the be all and end all, especially for a nation who, in my opinion, have a cultural ability to live on less.

Again, this is just my view and as I said, I am no economist.

[SupremeSpod]

OK, thats cool to disagree.

I don't see how their exports will fall, especially as they will appear cheaper. Reducing imports will be tough, in some respects, but not in others; farms aren't going to fail as Stavros no longer has the money to buy an X5, but if they retain an ability to build their own goods, which I think they have (they have a great area of expertise in mining equipment so I just found out), then they'll manage. They are a robust lot, historically, and would fair better than most in the same situation.

I genuinely believe that no longer having access to luxury goods isnt the be all and end all, especially for a nation who, in my opinion, have a cultural ability to live on less.

Again, this is just my view and as I said, I am no economist.

You're assuming that they(the populace) will knuckle down and get through it.

Personally I think you're more likely to see anarchy on the streets. It may even be the start of a "European Fall" - as in "Arab Spring"...

[AtW]

Personally I think you're more likely to see anarchy on the streets. It may even be the start of a "European Fall" - as in "Arab Spring"...

At least they'll have better cause for riots than getting free plasma TVs and new trainers

[Old Hack]

Just looking into this a bit more. But in the period 1970 through 1995 they were the poorest European country, and on the 'economic miracle of 1996 - 2002 (which we know about) got them into the Euro.

I am trying to get numbers, but it seems the numbers, pro rata, you've put for Iceland would work for Greece between 1970 and 1995, which was kind of what I was saying. They are used to not having much.

I do agree we could see a few interesting uprisings throughout Europe soon enough. Just takes one to fail, soon, and I can see quite a few. No one seems happy in Spain, or Portugal. I am sure Italy would like a scrap soon, and those French do like a bit of a blockade and birning from time to time...

[lukemg]

Trouble is democracy, pushes short term thinking on every party due to being bounced if they don't.
In this case people will simply vote for the party who says we won't cut as much as the other lot. Self interest rules...

[AtW]

Trouble is democracy, pushes short term thinking on every party due to being bounced if they don't.

They are doing ok in Norway - saved lots of money for the future from their big revenues.

Edukation edukation edukation ...

[DodgyAgent]

Everything they currently buy for their extensive imports: fuel, cloth, building materials, cars etc etc.

They now have incentives to build and grow their own stuff and Oil has been found off the coast of Crete and I am going to buy myself a nice little taverna that will be called "Dodgy's Mousaka and Kebab house" plate smashing on Fridays and table dancing on saturdays