Italy's bond yields at record levels today ....

[doodab]

Italy would be fine as long as the markets didn't push their interest rates up too high. One has to marvel at the collective wisdom that will do just that, thus effectively ensuring that those who have lent Italy money will lose it. It's a funny old world.

[sasguru]

Well lets check yet another source shall we.


https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...s/2003.html#it

2010 UK GDP 1.3% growth
2010 Italy GDP 1.3% growth



Interesting 3 different sources have exactly the same figures.

It's always good practice to debate with someone who's as thick as pigsh*t.

So you're comparing 1 years GDP after a recession as opposed to trend growth over 15 years? And you call me thick?


You really are a moron. And your lack of university degree is no excuse, we are talking CSE maths here

[BrilloPad]

Italy would be fine as long as the markets didn't push their interest rates up too high.

In the short term yes. In the long term no.

France/Germany have played chicken with the markets like John Major did in 1992. The markets always win.

[Mich the Tester]

So you're comparing 1 years GDP after a recession as opposed to trend growth over 15 years? And you call me thick?


You really are a moron. And your lack of university degree is no excuse, we are talking CSE maths here

To be fair, I have to wonder whether 'trend growth' is really much use anyway seeing as the last couple of years everything has gone mental and before that a lot of 'growth' in some couontries was obviously based on huge amounts of borrowing.

[sasguru]

Italy would be fine as long as the markets didn't push their interest rates up too high. One has to marvel at the collective wisdom that will do just that, thus effectively ensuring that those who have lent Italy money will lose it. It's a funny old world.

Isn't that the beauty of the markets though, because people take different positions, the collective wisdom ensures that unsustainable situations are brought to a head?

Compare and contrast with the Soviet Union which was effectively bust in the 70s but its command economy kept going and made the situation worse before it broke up in 1989.

[sasguru]

To be fair, I have to wonder whether 'trend growth' is really much use anyway seeing as the last couple of years everything has gone mental and before that a lot of 'growth' in some couontries was obviously based on huge amounts of borrowing.

You could compare Italy's growth from 1990 to 1999 with the UK's. They've never really hit much more than 1%.
That's why the markets think their can't pay their debts*. And the markets are right.

*Not if they are part of the Euro anyway. And that's when a debt crisis becomes a currency crisis

[Mich the Tester]

You could compare Italy's growth from 1990 to 1999 with the UK's. They've never really hit much more than 1%.
That's why the markets think their can't pay their debts*. And the markets are right.

*Not if they are part of the Euro anyway. And that's when a debt crisis becomes a currency crisis

They possibly can service their debts IF they're borrowing from the EU/EFSF etc fund at interest rates lower than the market; in other words, Mrs Merkel will have to lend them some money. They actually have plans to reduce the deficit next year, but the question should really be whether they can build a government that's able to push through the cuts and reforms. As I keep saying, essentially they have very good businesses and their consumer debt is very low, but they need some changes and they don't seem to like change. One of those changes might be to let in some more immigrants, which won't be popular.

[sasguru]

They possibly can service their debts IF they're borrowing from the EU/EFSF etc fund at interest rates lower than the market; in other words, Mrs Merkel will have to lend them some money. They actually have plans to reduce the deficit next year, but the question should really be whether they can build a government that's able to push through the cuts and reforms. As I keep saying, essentially they have very good businesses and their consumer debt is very low, but they need some changes and they don't seem to like change.

They can service their debts, but no chance of paying or even reducing the debt.
They do have very good businesses but also an entrenched bloated, crony-ist public sector, bit like Greece's.

[Mich the Tester]

They can service their debts, but no chance of paying or even reducing the debt.
They do have very good businesses but also an entrenched bloated, crony-ist public sector, bit like Greece's.

True, and that's why people should give Mr Cameron and his chums a bit more credit; they're at least trying to reduce the huge public sector, which would inevitably become similarly malignant if allowed to grow further. Again, in Italy, the demographics are causing a problem; young people protest about high youth unemployment, but the public sector is bloated with middle aged people and the businesses are burdened with paying for it; there aren't enough angry young voters to force the changes they need.

I don't think it's entirely a lost cause though; Italy has a lot more potential for the future than Greece; it just needs a solid government that will actually do something about the vested interests. Unfortunately, it's only ever had one government that did something about vested interests, and that one handed over the jews to Hitler. They need a radical government without the fascism of the past.

[BlasterBates]

So you're comparing 1 years GDP after a recession as opposed to trend growth over 15 years? And you call me thick?


You really are a moron. And your lack of university degree is no excuse, we are talking CSE maths here

What the figures demonstrate is that the ones you posted are wrong because they don't tally with the US govt's, Eurotstat or Wikpedia figures.

They're just bollox.

The trouble is that you're so thick you don't understand.