Reply to: Italy's bond yields at record levels today ....

[Mich the Tester]

Why can't we do what Switzerland does and boot them out after 10 years?

Not sure if they do that anymore, but if they do it's after said immigrants have managed to earn themselves quite a nice nest egg and store it in a Swiss bank. To do that, they have to be paid a few quid more than they are in the UK or Italy.

[sasguru]

But the UK, from 1996-2006 was actually just above 2.5%...

2.5% versus 1% is massive over 10/20 years.

[Mich the Tester]

But it does if its bond yields are close to 7%. Why is it that you Eurolanders cannot make the distinction between "should not" and "is"?

We is idealistic innit.

Can they not borrow money from the ECB at a lower rate with gold as collateral, seeing as they have a huge gold reserve?

[BrilloPad]

Or, more sensibly, raising the state retirement age.

Otherwise, what happens when those immigrants get old too? The problem is even worse.

Why can't we do what Switzerland does and boot them out after 10 years?

[sasguru]

Whatever:

"Italy does not face the crisis that the euro area's other peripheral countries suffer from, nor the drastic austerity measures that go with it. However, it also lacks the buoyancy of the area's core. Growth in 2011 (+1.0%) should be slightly lower than the already weak pace recorded in 2010 (+1.2%) and barely improve in 2012 (+1.4%).
"

But it does if its bond yields are close to 7%. Why is it that you Eurolanders cannot make the distinction between "should not" and "is"?

[darmstadt]

Whatever:

Italy is not experiencing the same financing difficulties as the other countries at the periphery of the euro area. It has therefore escaped the drastic austerity measures that are plunging most of them into recession. However, it is not showing the same buoyancy as the euro area's core economies.


This divergence is nothing new: over the past 20 years, Italy's average annual growth rate was only 1.0%, versus 1.6% for France and 1.7% for Germany. This differential is notably due to Italy's continuous loss of competitiveness compared to its main euro area partners. As a result, its trade balance has been deteriorating since 1997, thus weighing on growth.


The main source of growth should remain domestic demand, which would nevertheless be constrained by the introduction of austerity measures decided on last year and by the stagnation of the unemployment rate. In particular, the expiry of the on-the-job unemployment scheme for many employees should impact employment and wages in 2011. Higher inflation (2.5% in 2011) should also subtract from household purchasing power. Consumption should therefore grow only slightly.


Italy does not face the crisis that the euro area's other peripheral countries suffer from, nor the drastic austerity measures that go with it. However, it also lacks the buoyancy of the area's core. Growth in 2011 (+1.0%) should be slightly lower than the already weak pace recorded in 2010 (+1.2%) and barely improve in 2012 (+1.4%).

Today, the UK economy faces another struggle to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. Presently, the recovery effort has been sluggish. Although global economic prospects appear to be improving, economic forecasts for the UK have been fairly negative. In April 2011, The IMF slashed its 2011 growth forecast for UK’s economy to 1.75 percent, its third downgrade in a year. A report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also ranked UK as the slowest growing economy in the G7, with the exception of Japan.

But the UK, from 1996-2006 was actually just above 2.5%...

[Mich the Tester]

Good point, but I was defining it like we do over here - the age when they can start drawing their state pension, which would apply to private sector workers too.

Oh OK. Yep, it could help, but again it involves taking on a lot of vested interests; the Northern League won't support it, which makes it difficult for a right wing government to push it through, and the unions would go apetulip, making it impossible for the left to do it. Agreed that it's the right thing to do.

[Doggy Styles]

I'm all in favour of raising the state retirement age, but that's the STATE retirement age for government workers in Italy, most of whom basically aren't productive anyway so it won't really help.

Good point, but I was defining it like we do over here - the age when they can start drawing their state pension, which would apply to private sector workers too.

[Mich the Tester]

Or, more sensibly, raising the state retirement age.

Otherwise, what happens when those immigrants get old too? The problem is even worse.

I'm all in favour of raising the state retirement age, but that's the STATE retirement age for government workers in Italy, most of whom basically aren't productive anyway so it won't really help.

[Doggy Styles]

...now they have to translate the same growth in productivity to a working population that remains stable, if necessary by attracting educated immigrants, perhaps from countries with large Italian communities, like Argentina, the USA and Aus.

Or, more sensibly, raising the state retirement age.

Otherwise, what happens when those immigrants get old too? The problem is even worse.

[Mich the Tester]

FFS Can someone else take over cretin watch today?
And explain to this thicko that every single source of data, economic experts and the markets know that Italy's long run real growth rate over the last 20 years has been very poor and less than the EU average, usually bumping along at less than 1% I believe.

From here e.g.

ttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth

"Historically, from 1981 until 2011, Italy's average quarterly GDP Growth was 0.35 percent reaching an historical high of 2.20 percent in December of 1983 and a record low of -3.00 percent in March of 2009"

Italy only needs 1% growth to keep its citizens buying Alfas, Armani suits and smart bicycles, because the population is shrinking; that's good in that standards of living increase, BUT it needs more growth than that because it has debts which were taken on when their workforce was bigger than it is now. It's actually quite impressive to achieve 1% economic growth with a shrinking working population; now they have to translate the same growth in productivity to a working population that remains stable, if necessary by attracting educated immigrants, perhaps from countries with large Italian communities, like Argentina, the USA and Aus.

[sasguru]

What the figures demonstrate is that the ones you posted are wrong because they don't tally with the US govt's, Eurotstat or Wikpedia figures.

They're just bollox.

The trouble is that you're so thick you don't understand.

FFS Can someone else take over cretin watch today?
And explain to this thicko that every single source of data, economic experts and the markets know that Italy's long run real growth rate over the last 20 years has been very poor and less than the EU average, usually bumping along at less than 1% I believe.

From here e.g.

ttp://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/gdp-growth

"Historically, from 1981 until 2011, Italy's average quarterly GDP Growth was 0.35 percent reaching an historical high of 2.20 percent in December of 1983 and a record low of -3.00 percent in March of 2009"

[DimPrawn]

Google "Italian women" and look at the images. Italy has a lot going for it.

[BlasterBates]

So you're comparing 1 years GDP after a recession as opposed to trend growth over 15 years? And you call me thick?


You really are a moron. And your lack of university degree is no excuse, we are talking CSE maths here

What the figures demonstrate is that the ones you posted are wrong because they don't tally with the US govt's, Eurotstat or Wikpedia figures.

They're just bollox.

The trouble is that you're so thick you don't understand.

[Mich the Tester]

They can service their debts, but no chance of paying or even reducing the debt.
They do have very good businesses but also an entrenched bloated, crony-ist public sector, bit like Greece's.

True, and that's why people should give Mr Cameron and his chums a bit more credit; they're at least trying to reduce the huge public sector, which would inevitably become similarly malignant if allowed to grow further. Again, in Italy, the demographics are causing a problem; young people protest about high youth unemployment, but the public sector is bloated with middle aged people and the businesses are burdened with paying for it; there aren't enough angry young voters to force the changes they need.

I don't think it's entirely a lost cause though; Italy has a lot more potential for the future than Greece; it just needs a solid government that will actually do something about the vested interests. Unfortunately, it's only ever had one government that did something about vested interests, and that one handed over the jews to Hitler. They need a radical government without the fascism of the past.