Greece Defaults

[BlasterBates]

2-4% of GDP is nothing compared to what will happen if Greece defaults, and hence everyone else as well. If the Eurozone breaks up, banks will go bankrupt (check Iceland for the consequences, absolutely dire), the remaining Euro without the defaulters will shoot up strangling exports, not forgetting Germany exports mainly in the Euro zone, the ensuing credit crunch will casue a worldwide recession so exacerbating the recession, and there will be no credit, making it trebly worse. The consequences will easily wipe off the current growth around 2% for several years. Nope they'll keep Greece alive, because they've no choice. There may be a minimal default with nodding agreements from French banks, but there will be no full scale "hey guys we're bankrupt". Nope Germany may gnash it's teeth but in the end they'll pay.

[TimberWolf]

France's GDP, however, is around €2 trillion by International Monetary Fund estimates – while the balance sheets of French banks "are some 400% of that number," says David Zervos, head of global fixed income strategy at securities and investment banking group Jeffries, which manages around $3 billion of assets

"The banks are dead men walking with massive leverage...Europe as a whole is about to embark on a sloppy financial market socialization process."

Rest of doom article here

[DimPrawn]

Who has done best out of Greece being in the Euro? Greece, EU, speculators or other? And who the worst?

If it's anything like Cyprus, they have done well out of it. Billions of German taxpayers Euros been flooding in in subsidies for new infrastructure etc.

[DimPrawn]

2-4% of GDP is nothing compared to what will happen if Greece defaults, and hence everyone else as well. If the Eurozone breaks up, banks will go bankrupt (check Iceland for the consequences, absolutely dire), the remaining Euro without the defaulters will shoot up strangling exports, not forgetting Germany exports mainly in the Euro zone, the ensuing credit crunch will casue a worldwide recession so exacerbating the recession, and there will be no credit, making it trebly worse. The consequences will easily wipe off the current growth around 2% for several years. Nope they'll keep Greece alive, because they've no choice. There may be a minimal default with nodding agreements from French banks, but there will be no full scale "hey guys we're bankrupt". Nope Germany may gnash it's teeth but in the end they'll pay.

WHS.

It's Germany pay up or pay for the next 20 years with a Euro wide depression and perhaps even a few wars thrown in.

[Lockhouse]

WHS.

It's Germany pay up or pay for the next 20 years with a Euro wide depression and perhaps even a few wars thrown in.

I reckon there'll be a managed default.

[sasguru]

French banks will need recapitalisation. But French government debt is about the same as British government debt NOW before anything happens.
British government debt was relatively low compared to France and Germany before this crisis.
And so the British government could put some money into our banks, France cannot afford to borrow more in order to do so.

[Le Rosbif]

I reckon there'll be a managed default.

Exactly - Then a managed dismantlement of the Eurozone.

Going back to national currencies (and devalue them) is the only way European countries will be able to reduce their debt (along with sacking half of the civil servants)

[Le Rosbif]

And so the British government could put some money into our banks

As they did in 2008?
What would the public opinion in the UK be if the government decides to recapitalizes UK banks one more time?

[Doggy Styles]

Let's not forget that this is the fault of every single person who supported the common currency. They never thought it through properly, did they.

Anyone over here in the UK who opposed the euro was called a Little Englander, a xenophobe, even a racist. "Left behind" was one of the more stupid pronouncements on the UK not joining.

Well, they were wrong and those opposing it were right, Q.E.D. The common currency is fast becoming the biggest financial disaster in peacetime since <pick your own date from long ago>.

[sasguru]

As they did in 2008?
What would the public opinion in the UK be if the government decides to recapitalizes UK banks one more time?

No I mean they have already done so and should not need to again, whereas if Greece goes bust, the French banks will have to be.
AFAIK British banks are not as exposed to Greece as the French and so should not need further recap. But who the fook knows?