Gold

[Jog On]

Are you going to take a punt on the movement before the Bernanke speech tomorrow?

I'm not sure - I've already got one fairly heavily underwater but will see what the charts look like at the end of the day and tomorrow morning. Already looking a bit promising

[Jog On]

Would Robbie Burns be measured as "successful" using your yardstick?

How about the likes of:

John W henry (yank that bought Liverpool)
Ed Seykota
Richard Dennis

All long term technical trend followers - were they successful?

[sasguru]

Again - How much?

If I was convinced I would get the data correctly, a very large sum.
I'm about 95% convinced I'm right, so say 95% of my savings and investment.

[Jog On]

Silver is looking good..

[eek]

Actually I've invented a new method of investing called Historical Pattern Analysis that works quite well.

So basically its Elliott wave analysis without the annoying wave bit.

[AtW]

DimPrawn is the original CUK fantasy market player, and he is out of it for some time.

For this reason I am also out.

HTH

[Jog On]

And I'm also willing to wager that no individual day trader is succesful over the long run.

For the 3rd time - how much?!

This might be my new signature.

[sasguru]

How about the likes of:

John W henry (yank that bought Liverpool)
Ed Seykota
Richard Dennis

All long term technical trend followers - were they successful?

Never heard of them so I wiki-ied the last 2:

1.
Much of Seykota's success was attributed to his development and utilization of computerized trading systems

Ok so that proves my point that you need computerised trading systems.

2.
Dennis held positions for longer periods—riding out short-term fluctuations and holding over the intermediate term.
The exact system taught to the Turtles by Dennis has been published in at least two books and can be back-tested to check its performance in recent years. The result of such back-test shows a drastic drop in performance after 1986, and even a flat performance from 1996 to 2009.[7] However, a number of turtles (eg. Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital, Liz Cheval of EMC, Paul Rabar) began and continued careers as successful commodity trading managers, using techniques similar, but not identical, to the Turtle System.

Dennis managed pools of capital for others in the markets for a while, but withdrew from such management in the spring of 1988 after his clients suffered heavy losses. In the Black Monday stock market crash of 1987, he reportedly lost $10 million,[8] with a total of $50 million reportedly lost in
...

So this guy was really crap and lost all his clients money

[Jog On]

If you're going to talk about technical analysis you really should have heard of these guys.. - kind of says it all

[sasguru]

If you're going to talk about technical analysis you really should have heard of these guys.. - kind of says it all

But I think it's crap like astrology. Would I know all the astrologists?
BTW Found this about the Henry fella, from BusinessWeek:

John W. Henry, the famed futures trader and principal owner of the Boston Red Sox, was the king of Beantown in October, 2004, when his Sox won the World Series and broke the most fabled curse in sports. But he has been in a dreadful slump ever since. In 2005, 9 of Henry's 11 managed futures funds posted double-digit losses. And with those losses extending through February, his firm has shed $1 billion in assets, down 30% from the peak at the end of 2004, when stray pieces of confetti still littered the Boston streets

He managed to lose in a booming economy? These are your heroes?

In other words, its random, you win some and lose some. Over the long run you're even.
Fundamental mathematical probability of a random system

HTH but IDI.