Gold

[Jog On]

He uses a strategy called "Technical Analysis". This relies on the idea that the stock market is not random and that patterns can be observed in the short term.However most serious players believe that any anomalies (deviations from randomness) are fleeting and can only be exploited by hedge funds using large volumes of money and automated algorithmic trading. Under this belief any individuals using Technical Analysis will not make money because any trends they notice will be balanced by those they don't. Add in the small volumes and transaction costs and most individual short-term traders will lose over the long run.
Of course most humans are not rational and psychologically can persuade themselves of anything they wish.

The theory is easily tested. Any earnings minus any expenses. I'm willing to wager Jog On does not make a living doing this. And I'm also willing to wager that no individual day trader is succesful over the long run.

Don't trade stocks

I've never heard of your definition of technical analysis, it sounds way too complicated for my simple needs

I don't trade full time because I don't have the equity for it.

And I'm also willing to wager that no individual day trader is succesful over the long run.

How much?

[sasguru]

The relative frequency model of probability is a long run theory.
If you flip a non-baised coin 100000 times there will be periods when you keep getting heads. After 50 heads you might conclude the coin is biased i.e. it is non-random.
Until you get a period of 50 tails.

The graph is surprisingly wobbly in the initial stages and can lead to a kind of "gamblers ruin" type belief where you think you have found a pattern.

[sasguru]

Don't trade stocks

Applies to any market.

[sasguru]

Define "long run" because I've a feeling you may lose that one.

Oh I don't know - say 10 years.

[sasguru]

I've never heard of your definition of technical analysis, ?

You use all the jargon.

[AtW]

He uses a strategy called "Technical Analysis". This relies on the idea that the stock market is not random and that patterns can be observed in the short term.
However most serious players believe that any anomalies (deviations from randomness) are fleeting and can only be exploited by hedge funds using large volumes of money and automated algorithmic trading. Under this belief any individuals using Technical Analysis will not make money because any trends they notice will be balanced by those they don't. Add in the small volumes and transaction costs and most individual short-term traders will lose over the long run.
Of course most humans are not rational and psychologically can persuade themselves of anything they wish.

The theory is easily tested. Any earnings minus any expenses. I'm willing to wager Jog On does not make a living doing this. And I'm also willing to wager that no individual day trader is succesful over the long run.

WHS

And also: HFT people know suckers use outdated technical analysis models, so they can create patterns that suckers expect and clean up their pockets before they can react. That's why you see this tulip now when there is a rally but then it falls back.

[TimberWolf]

It's looking interesting, 1730 is quite a key level, previous support and a fib retracement, silver is up as well.

This could be it but I'll wait for more confirmation...

Are you going to take a punt on the movement before the Bernanke speech tomorrow?

[Churchill]

Oh I don't know - say 10 years.

Would Robbie Burns be measured as "successful" using your yardstick?

[Jog On]

And I'm also willing to wager that no individual day trader is succesful over the long run.

Again - How much?

[sasguru]

Actually I've invented a new method of investing called Historical Pattern Analysis that works quite well.
It involves comparing current conditions with similar conditions that pertained historically and predicting what will happen now by what happened then.
Humans en masse are surprisingly predictable, you know.
I may write a book about it and clean up