The beginning of the end of the PC?

[TimberWolf]

I can't remember where I saw the trucking metaphor, I'll look again later. He refers to pos-PC devices (which I guess is a typo for post-PC) in his talk yesterday.

Here you go:

7:05 pm: When you did your presentation on the iPad, you described it as a new category of device, says Walt. But in order for it to succeed, people have to feel that it’s worth carrying around. Do you think the tablet will succeed the laptop, he asks.

Jobs: “When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks, because that’s what you needed on the farm. But as vehicles started to be used in the urban centers, cars got more popular. Innovations like automatic transmission and power steering and things that you didn’t care about in a truck as much started to become paramount in cars. … PCs are going to be like trucks. They’re still going to be around, they’re still going to have a lot of value, but they’re going to be used by one out of X people. … I think that we’re embarked on that. Is the next step the iPad? Who knows? Will it happen next year or five years from now or seven years from now? Who knows? But I think we’re headed in that direction.”
Apple CEO Steve Jobs Live at D8 | D8 Conference | AllThingsD

[Sysman]

Whatever happened to voice recognition? To embarrassing or slow to use?

I had it in 1997. It was pretty good except when I put down the coffee mug OLAQHO0

I believe hospital consultants, barristers and the like used it extensively, but that was probably because they were used to dictating to a secretary and thought keyboards were beneath them. I doubt it's much good for anyone working in an open plan office.

But I preferred to listen to the radio or my CDs through proper speakers while working.

Accents - that's what happened.

This is where I was lucky to find a British version of the software. I didn't have to learn Yank to get it to understand me. It learned as it went along, but I've just remembered that it was quite a memory hog.

[Sysman]

Imagine sitting the train in the morning loudly dictating into the device "Due to this latest of Please many mind dangerous the product gap failures, we will have to cut back and sack 50% of the lazy permies. Do not leak this as it will be stock price sensitive!"

Not the best scenario.

FTFY.

[amcdonald]

Imagine sitting the train in the morning loudly dictating into the device "Due to this latest of Please many mind dangerous the product gap failures, we will have to cut back and sack 50% of the look at that lazy permies. Do not leak this milf as it will be stock price sensitive!"

Not the best scenario

FTFY

[realityhack]

Thinner ice.

If keyboards are going to be superceded in any meaningful way then the designers are going to have to get past the tactile feedback that allows those who touch-type to do so so quickly. I've tried typing on an iPad and it's nowhere near as good in that respect as a keyboard - same with projected keyboards or 'paper' keyboards. Dictation software would be ideal for use at home (but not in an open environment) if they could just make it more reliable.

The iPad is just too kiddie for me to be interested - maybe if they properly thought through a deeper OS that would be operable by touchscreen. Until then it's just an overgrown iPod Touch to me, and it doesn't matter how slim or fast they make it. Interestingly - Apple have filed a patent to develop some sort of tactile feedback system for their touchscreen keyboards - hopefully it's not as shameful as the Blackberry's effort.

[Sysman]

Thinner ice.

If keyboards are going to be superceded in any meaningful way then the designers are going to have to get past the tactile feedback that allows those who touch-type to do so so quickly. I've tried typing on an iPad and it's nowhere near as good in that respect as a keyboard - same with projected keyboards or 'paper' keyboards. Dictation software would be ideal for use at home (but not in an open environment) if they could just make it more reliable.

Apple have already had a go at keyboards. You can't get a Bluetooth keyboard with a numeric keypad any more.

[NickFitz]

So Steve Jobs' answers to your questions:

Is 2011 to mark the beginning of the end of the gas guzzling PC?

...will the future office need the PC's larger screen and locally connected boxes, wires and peripherals, such as a keyboard and mouse?

Is the iPad2 first and foremost an office laptop killer?

would be:

Here you go:

PCs are going to be like trucks. They’re still going to be around, they’re still going to have a lot of value, but they’re going to be used by one out of X people. … I think that we’re embarked on that. Is the next step the iPad? Who knows? Will it happen next year or five years from now or seven years from now? Who knows? But I think we’re headed in that direction.

or, to summarise: no, yes, and no.

[TimberWolf]

I'm not a touch typist and, given a large enough keyboard, I don't think my typing speed would change a great deal.

[AtW]

I think the machine you use will show your status in the hierarchy.
Lower level technical types like analysts, developers and support people will be wedded to a keyboard for obvious reasons.
Higher level strategic types will only need the output that the lower levels produce - and a touchscreen is good enough for that.

And what would your types do?

[AtW]

Apple have already had a go at keyboards. You can't get a Bluetooth keyboard with a numeric keypad any more.

Well, I'll just connect my trusty PS2 keyboard... on wait!