Why there will be no real recovery from this recession

[sasguru]

The way war in Afghanistan goes you might just get what you wished for - better pray shaunbhoy and Churchill are on the same team with you

Why? Do you think sending some over-weight, middle-aged, not very bright guys will help the situation in Afghanistan?

[minestrone]

I think the 80s & 90s were a blip and we are going back to the level we were at in the 50s, 60s and 70s. In a bad way but still the belief that we are a true world power. Gordon screwed any chance we have of staying on the top rung.

I would rather we moved in the direction of Spain, admit we are useless and just tried to have a better life.

[sasguru]

Other Western nations spend more than we do and are doing OK.

They are either small or have old fashioned things like factories and stuff, which we got rid off in the 80s.
Do you know Britain's biggest manufacturer is British Aerospace which employs, wait for it, 20,000 people, AFAIK.
Where are people meant to get jobs, which generate taxes, which can pay for generous welfare states?

[d000hg]

Where are people meant to get jobs, which generate taxes, which can pay for generous welfare states?

If there are no jobs, taking welfare away isn't really going to achieve anything. We'll go bankrupt slower but starve faster.

[sasguru]

If there are no jobs, taking welfare away isn't really going to achieve anything. We'll go bankrupt slower but starve faster.

If there is no wealth created, we can't pay for welfare without borrowing too much and ultimately going bust.
Oh hang on ....

[Doggy Styles]

It is structural rather than cyclical. What happened is that reality intruded and pointed out we are living beyond our means.
We may blame bankers for creating sub-prime mortgages, but the fact is that if there wasn't a demand created by government, the media and other forces there wouldn't have been any sub-prime.
There is no solution except to increase productivity and accept real cuts in wages. However this is unacceptable to most.
And so we will drift on, papering over the cracks.

I'm with you up to there, sir (the rest became a whinge).

As you imply there is no realistic alternative to cutting public spending and encouraging free enterprise to take up the slack, but we'll need to win a popular war or something in 2014 to keep the w**kers out who get us into these messes.

Oh dear, I've just whinged as well. That's allowed though, because it was about the Labour government.

[HairyArsedBloke]

If there are no jobs, taking welfare away isn't really going to achieve anything. We'll go bankrupt slower but starve faster.

There are plenty of jobs. More than enough to absorb all those currently on welfare that want to/should be working and all those being displaced from their public sector jobs.

Unfortunately the jobs are currently being done by others from outside the UK.

It will not make the slightest difference how poor you make British people in the mistaken belief that it will make them work; employers will not have them.

Only the elimination of minimum wage, employment protection laws, union rights, and welfare will begin to make British workers competitive again.

[Saddo]

It is structural rather than cyclical. What happened is that reality intruded and pointed out we are living beyond our means

Actually I think what you have said is generously negative, and I would like to put some positive spit on it.

In the short term I don't doubt your assessment is correct. But medium term (say 5-10 years from now to put a figure on it) I reckon smelly stuff will meet revolving fan blades when politicians around the world finally realise that they can't vaseline their way out of this crisis.

What we see happening in France presently is in my view the way to go. The french government are attempting to force workers to retire at 62 rather than 60, and the workforce don't like it. I happen to agree with them.

And what is happening across the world? Governments are forcing people to retire later. Our very own Gordon Brown oversaw a situation where people would have to continue working longer. Fair enough, we are living longer and the cost of supporting the old farts gets higher - let's get the blighters out there earning money which we can then tax them on to pay for all this care. Job's a good 'un, init?

Well actually no, job isn't a good 'un. The wrinklies staying in work denies opportunity to the youngsters entering the job market, and what we are currently already doing is committing a generation of youngsters who will probably never work, and all that money we "saved" in solving the wrinklies problem has been diverted to the younngsters instead. Crime will rise etc.

What we have to bear in mind is that the world only needs so many widgets, you can't keep adding workers to the pile dreaming that they can just make more widgets. Unfortunately that's what the politicians are currently doing. They are assuming infinite demand and that you just can't make enough widgets.

I think the situation has to change - for the better for everyone. Instead of creating an environment where people have to work longer, instead go the other way so that people can retire EARLIER. And find ways to keep them occupied. State sponsored bingo anyone? And why not?

That requires a mindshift on the part of global government. They are stuck with the idea that people are born to work. Let's shift the paradigm to people being allowed some free time in their lives. We can't keep creating jobs in an endless cycle, and there are only so many wars you can invent to keep the population in check.

I would rather see future generations born where the number of years they work compared to their life expectancy fell in real terms, so that people had more time enjoying their pastimes and getting on with others. The current world model doesn't support that approach.

[Saddo]

If there is no wealth created, we can't pay for welfare without borrowing too much and ultimately going bust

Using the measure where "PROFIT = GOOD". Banking/financiers term. Are you sure they are right?

I figure that the world needs to shift to recognising some other measure of corporate success. Whilst squeaking pips might be today's measure of success, just maybe we can find another alternative which measures success on something like social responsibility, where a company is keeping people occupied in a profitable way without that actually being measured in pounds and pennies.

[HairyArsedBloke]

.... wibble...