Russia cutting off oil?

[AtW]

You really are a moron, aren't you? The Chinese may not have paid in cold hard cash, but they pay in other ways.

You can bet Iran did not lose out in that deal compared to if they sold the oil to the US.

I am not interested in whether Iran profits from it - they don't have good relations with most wealthy countries, so selling oil to someone like China is more or less their main option - that's why they have to offer lower than market prices and that's why China deals with those dodgy people - the whole point is that you pay less than otherwise. Why the fk would China do something like this if they had to pay same market prices? Might as well buy from Saudi Arabia or just on world market - no point to get involved in these things, unless you get much better prices.

Naturally China (and mainly Russia) cover up Iran in UN and you bet Chinese get paid for that, most likely in cheap energy that they need. This just reinforces the point of them not willing to pay market prices and doing deals with dodgy people in order to get cheaper prices.

Now think about it - China buys 150k barrels per day from Iran and get cheaper price by virtue of getting fixed price on huge contract in the same deal, Russia produces 10 mln barrels of oil per day of which 5 mln barrels are exported (mostly to Europe). So, China uses 6 mln barrels in total and suddenly they get next door supplier of oil that can't sell 5 mln barrels anywhere else but to China, what kind of price do you think the Chinese would pay, market price? Hell no - I doubt they'd pay more than 25% of market price in this case, if that.

It's like when a truck full of stuff gets stolen and dodgy people start offering it around, the prices would be low already because its stolen dodgy goods but if the quantity of them would be great then the price would go even lower as it would be the buyers market.

[sasguru]

I am not interested in whether Iran profits from it - they don't have good relations with most wealthy countries, so selling oil to someone like China is more or less their main option - that's why they have to offer lower than market prices and that's why China deals with those dodgy people - the whole point is that you pay less than otherwise. Why the fk would China do something like this if they had to pay same market prices? Might as well buy from Saudi Arabia or just on world market - no point to get involved in these things, unless you get much better prices.

Naturally China (and mainly Russia) cover up Iran in UN and you bet Chinese get paid for that, most likely in cheap energy that they need. This just reinforces the point of them not willing to pay market prices and doing deals with dodgy people in order to get cheaper prices.

Now think about it - China buys 150k barrels per day from Iran and get cheaper price by virtue of getting fixed price on huge contract in the same deal, Russia produces 10 mln barrels of oil per day of which 5 mln barrels are exported (mostly to Europe). So, China uses 6 mln barrels in total and suddenly they get next door supplier of oil that can't sell 5 mln barrels anywhere else but to China, what kind of price do you think the Chinese would pay, market price? Hell no - I doubt they'd pay more than 25% of market price in this case, if that.

It's like when a truck full of stuff gets stolen and dodgy people start offering it around, the prices would be low already because its stolen dodgy goods but if the quantity of them would be great then the price would go even lower as it would be the buyers market.

More bollux. They sell oil to Japan, South Korea and a lot of European countries as well as China.

Do you get some sort of Tourettes syndrome that makes you spout utter tulipe?

[AtW]

Closing the case here:

Russian exports: 6-7 mln barrels of oil per day (source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Russia/Oil.html )
Chinese imports: 3.25 mln barrels of oil per day (source: http://www.energyinvestmentstrategie...imports-ahead/ )

Therefore even if China buys all the oil they need from Russia, Russia's sales would drop 50%. And naturally when supply exceeds demand its buyers market and China won't pay anywhere closer to market price therefore reducing Russia's revenues further. Oil wells will have to be closed since Russia won't be able to sell all oil it gets now.

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Case closed in my view.

[sasguru]

Closing the case here:

Russian exports: 6-7 mln barrels of oil per day (source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Russia/Oil.html )
Chinese imports: 3.25 mln barrels of oil per day (source: http://www.energyinvestmentstrategie...imports-ahead/ )

Therefore even if China buys all the oil they need from Russia, Russia's sales would drop 50%. And naturally when supply exceeds demand its buyers market and China won't pay anywhere closer to market price therefore reducing Russia's revenues further. Oil wells will have to be closed since Russia won't be able to sell all oil it gets now.

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Case closed in my view.

I think the Russians would be able to get rid of their oil at market prices somewhere.
It may have escaped your non-market communistic brain, but supply and demand will dictate that.

[AtW]

I think the Russians would be able to get rid of their oil at market prices somewhere.

Yeah like where? You do know that Russia does not have tanker fleet? The only viable buyer is China because you can put pipe there (after big investment and lots of work).

Who will they sell to if the West won't buy it? Even if they manage to workaround the embargo it will hit revenues 2-3 times minimum.

[sasguru]

Anyway it's been fun pounding some sense into your thick Russian skull, as always.
I'm off t'pub!
Have a nice weekend and do try to get laid, won't you?

[Incognito]

Ah was wondering when dopey would arrive.

Do you think the US or the UK don't do the same sort of deal for example by supplying Saudi with fighters/arms in exchange for preferential terms on oil?

Actually you've got that completely wrong.

Link

[sasguru]

Actually you've got that completely wrong.

Link

Hey Incompleto I know I must be right when you weigh in on the other side

[Incognito]

Hey Incompleto I know I must be right when you weigh in on the other side

No, I agree with you that Russia will just flog it's oil and gas elsewhere, but what you don't realise is that we had to bribe the Saudis to take our planes and tanks.

[DodgyAgent]

Anyway it's been fun pounding some sense into your thick Russian skull, as always.
I'm off t'pub!
Have a nice weekend and do try to get laid, won't you?

Dont forget your biscuit tin shorty