Where can I find expert analysis on housing predictions?

[AtW]

Face it AtW, with some exceptions, if long-term residents of working age don't own property by the age of 40 they either live an unusual lifestyle (not necessarily discreditable) or, to put it bluntly, they're failures. That's just the way it is in this country.

I'd prefer to buy a house. However not at really stupid prices - 50% off current prices (more in London but I would not want to live there anyway) and I might be tempted.

In Europe majority of people rent - in this country stupid Govt made renting much more riskier - that was totally wrong (BTL brigade will obviously disagree).

I am not against house owning - I am very much for it. What I am against is artificially creating conditions for house price bubbles in order to grow economy on the basis of debt, something that NL is guilty of.

[Mailman_1]

Well that's great for high earners, but high earners won't decide the market


IIRC 2 years ago you could get 4% discounted rates
who is offering those rates now? and what exactly is the APR (including arrangement or reservation fees?)

The cheapest rates I have seen are over 6% APR with many over 7% APR

High earners or anyone who already has a property with a fair bit of equity in it already. Which will be most people who bought prior to 2005.

[AtW]

IIRC 2 years ago you could get 4% discounted rates
who is offering those rates now? and what exactly is the APR (including arrangement or reservation fees?)

Exactly baggy. People were overstretching themselves on 4% because brokers were saying - in 2 years time you will just re-morgage with another provider, again at 4% so you will be all right. A lot of those people won't get new morgage at all, and those who stay will have to pay 7-8%. How would they handle it when they already overstretched themselves at 4-5%? No chance.

[Diver]

Landlords will have to be flexible now to get tenants.

Mine allows pets, never seen her at all. The rest however is true, but when a choice is between this OR getting into lifetime of debt with repo coming soon and negative equity, then I'd pick renting. Actually I did pick renting

Er! I refer you to my post last week Link when I was drawing up new tenancy agreements.
If they don't like it, tough. There are plenty of people on my ever growing waiting list.

[51st State]

Supply and demand for property can only work if other factors remain unchanged,but hang on, things are changing, demand is fuelled by the availability of cheap credit, the unrealistic expectation that house prices won't fall, and rising yields, ultimately as credit dries up and yields fall further there is only one way for prices to go.



The fact that people can't afford the house of their dreams doesn't immediately mean that prices should drop, or would you suggest that Ferrari should price based on the average affordability?

An average house is hardy in the same market as a Ferrari, you are comparing apples with oranges, moreover the luxury car market has been fairly stable. When it comes to property average income cannot afford an average house price, ultimately that does mean the price will have to fall especailly as credit dries up and lending becomes more expensive, forget the BoE lowering rates, the banks are raising their rates and removing their cheap deals now unless Britain is more cash rich than reports of debt would indicate just exactly what is going to fund the market?

Something tells me you have a vested interest?

No vested interest at all. I just think that there's too many people who "read" the Daily Star and believe everything in there. Forgetting that it's a journo's job to sell newspapers by creating sensational stories out of facts.

Don't forget as well that banks are removing cheap deals because they potentially see this as a way of maximising profits by taking advantage of the current market conditions. They are buying cheap and selling high at the moment, and also removing the possible bad debt element by oulling deals to those who have carp deposits or want high income multiples.

[AtW]

Er! I refer you to my post last week Link when I was drawing up new tenancy agreements.
If they don't like it, tough. There are plenty of people on my ever growing waiting list.

I think you are getting a bit too overconfident my friend.

[Mailman_1]

I think you are getting a bit too overconfident my friend.

The rental market is bouyant. Only this morning i accepted an offer and took a deposit on one of my BTL's at the asking price which i have upped by 10% on the last tenancy. I even swiped the microwave from the property as mine has expired.

[Diver]

I think you are getting a bit too overconfident my friend.

Those that were due to sign new leases (I only do short term) signed them willingly when I pointed out that the other option was to find somewhere else.
I also gave permission for one tenant to keep a cat (none of the others wanted pets)
PS. I also went and decorated one ladies bedroom. (Because I've seen her decorating)

[Bagpuss]

No vested interest at all. I just think that there's too many people who "read" the Daily Star and believe everything in there. Forgetting that it's a journo's job to sell newspapers by creating sensational stories out of facts.

Don't forget as well that banks are removing cheap deals because they potentially see this as a way of maximising profits by taking advantage of the current market conditions. They are buying cheap and selling high at the moment, and also removing the possible bad debt element by oulling deals to those who have carp deposits or want high income multiples.

It didn't think it was possible to read the Daily Star. A rudimentary understanding of economics is all that's required. Argueing about price falls is a moot point, they are already falling despite "the shortage of supply". The economy is about to hit skid row and with it the get rich quick pyramid scheme that was the UK housing market.

[sasguru]

I think you are getting a bit too overconfident my friend.

A fall in demand in the sales market=A rise in demand in the rental market=Landlords have the upper hand.
Or is that too difficult for you?