Where can I find expert analysis on housing predictions?

[EternalOptimist]

Roger Bootle sticks in my mind because he was the housing market expert who predicted a collapse in house prices about two and a half years ago, on moneybox,r4.
He was on again a year ago eating his words, and to give hime his due, he made a five course meal out of it. If HE can't get it right, what chance have the rest of us got ?

We all know that tomorrow it will either rain, or it wont, but thats not the same as making a prediction.

[Bagpuss]

One thing for sure those with a vested interest will be talking the market up e.g. the Nationwide et al and the association of estate agents. Ultimately the best predicitor is what has occured before. Historically there has always been a correction of over inflated house prices (anyone who thinks prices are sustainable needs their head testing) why is this time different?

[EternalOptimist]

One thing for sure those with a vested interest will be talking the market up e.g. the Nationwide et al and the association of estate agents. Ultimately the best predicitor is what has occured before. Historically there has always been a correction of over inflated house prices (anyone who thinks prices are sustainable needs their head testing) why is this time different?

Well thats about as much of a prediction as Jonathan Cainer saying 'there will be a woman in the Whitehouse in 2008'

[51st State]

One thing for sure those with a vested interest will be talking the market up e.g. the Nationwide et al and the association of estate agents. Ultimately the best predicitor is what has occured before. Historically there has always been a correction of over inflated house prices (anyone who thinks prices are sustainable needs their head testing) why is this time different?

Why do you think that the current level of house pricing is unsustainable? If a resource is finite then the price goes up if it's something that people want.

The fact that people can't afford the house of their dreams doesn't immediately mean that prices should drop, or would you suggest that Ferrari should price based on the average affordability?

The whole economic landscape is different from previous cycles. Interest rates are very low, for one.

You'll be citing Japan as an example next no doubt?

[Turion]

Why do you think that the current level of house pricing is unsustainable? If a resource is finite then the price goes up if it's something that people want.

The fact that people can't afford the house of their dreams doesn't immediately mean that prices should drop, or would you suggest that Ferrari should price based on the average affordability?

The whole economic landscape is different from previous cycles. Interest rates are very low, for one.

You'll be citing Japan as an example next no doubt?

Prices will fall simply because it is possible to rent a much nicer home for much less than actually buying it. I can rent a 200k house for £800/month = £9600/yr. The interest on the average 200k mortage needed to buy it @ say 7% a.p.r = £1166/mo = £14000/yr. That is without all the additional costs involved in home ownership and repaying the capital! In a normal market situation the rent should be higher. My calculations prove that house prices are at least 40% overvalued at current prices.

BTL landlords, the ones who will not be forced to sell, are getting less than 5% yield after costs. This paltry amount together with falling asset values will cause collapse of the BTL market during thenext 3 years, as they start selling. BTL type housing is likely to fall 50% or more.

[51st State]

Prices will fall simply because it is possible to rent a much nicer home for much less than actually buying it. I can rent a 200k house for £800/month = £9600/yr. The interest on the average 200k mortage needed to buy it @ say 7% a.p.r = £1166/mo = £14000/yr. That is without all the additional costs involved in home ownership and repaying the capital! In a normal market situation the rent should be higher. My calculations prove that house prices are at least 40% overvalued at current prices.

BTL landlords, the ones who will not be forced to sell, are getting less than 5% yield after costs. This paltry amount together with falling asset values will cause collapse of the BTL market during thenext 3 years, as they start selling. BTL type housing is likely to fall 50% or more.

What absolute twaddle.

A £200k mortgage will cost about £1300 per month over 25 years - and that's repaying the capital.

Those people that can't afford to buy rent. End of. Rental prices and yields don't drive the whole of the housing market.

You do talk some tulipe pal.

[tim123]

What absolute twaddle.

A £200k mortgage will cost about £1300 per month over 25 years - and that's repaying the capital.

Those people that can't afford to buy rent. End of. Rental prices and yields don't drive the whole of the housing market.

You do talk some tulipe pal.

How is it absolute twaddle. All your figures show is that by investing payments of 400K you end up with a 200K asset and free rent for 25 years. How is this different from paying the rent and investing the residual to produce the 200K?

tim

[tim123]

The whole economic landscape is different from previous cycles. Interest rates are very low, for one.

Oh look. The "it's different this time" arguement

tim

[sasguru]

Ask atw. He is the first person in history to have got economics down to a hard science. Plus he made loads of money on property, oh hang on....

[51st State]

How is it absolute twaddle. All your figures show is that by investing payments of 400K you end up with a 200K asset and free rent for 25 years. How is this different from paying the rent and investing the residual to produce the 200K?

tim

A £200k asset? Where's the growth then? Even you must agree that the £200k will appreciate by a reasonable amount over 25 years?

Or are you now trying to say that this particluar piece of history won't repeat itself?