Where can I find expert analysis on housing predictions?

[51st State]

Oh look. The "it's different this time" arguement

tim

Oh look, it's the "I'm a sheep and I hope houses devalue 'cos I can't afford to buy" argument.

ar$e.

[Mailman_1]

How is it absolute twaddle. All your figures show is that by investing payments of 400K you end up with a 200K asset and free rent for 25 years. How is this different from paying the rent and investing the residual to produce the 200K?

tim

The property will be worth a lot more than 200k in 25 yrs.

A lot of people see paying rent as throwing money away as you have nothing to show for your investment at the end of the rental period.

[AtW]

Ask atw. He is the first person in history to have got economics down to a hard science. Plus he made loads of money on property, oh hang on....

Yes I did not make any money on this bubble. Just like on other bubbles. This does not mean that my prediction if a crash is not happening now.

It's like as if drug addictics on heroin were saying that you have not tried it so you can't know what it will lead to. Newsflash - I don't need to jump of a cliff to know what this is likely to lead to, I will stay away from that, yet this won't mean that my predictions are incorrect - it would just mean I am behaving in an honourable consistent way with my views.

[DimPrawn]

The property will be worth a lot more than 200k in 25 yrs.

A lot of people see paying rent as throwing money away as you have nothing to show for your investment at the end of the rental period.

And you have to worry about your rental agreement ending and be willing to move every 6 months if need be, and can't make alterations to your home and cannot have pets, or sub-let a room or not be able to smoke at home and have to endure "inspections" by your landlord.

[AtW]

And you have to worry about your rental agreement ending and be willing to move every 6 months if need be, and can't make alterations to your home and cannot have pets, or sub-let a room or not be able to smoke at home and have to endure "inspections" by your landlord.

Landlords will have to be flexible now to get tenants.

Mine allows pets, never seen her at all. The rest however is true, but when a choice is between this OR getting into lifetime of debt with repo coming soon and negative equity, then I'd pick renting. Actually I did pick renting

[Bagpuss]

Why do you think that the current level of house pricing is unsustainable? If a resource is finite then the price goes up if it's something that people want.?


The whole economic landscape is different from previous cycles. Interest rates are very low, for one.

You'll be citing Japan as an example next no doubt?

Supply and demand for property can only work if other factors remain unchanged,but hang on, things are changing, demand is fuelled by the availability of cheap credit, the unrealistic expectation that house prices won't fall, and rising yields, ultimately as credit dries up and yields fall further there is only one way for prices to go.



The fact that people can't afford the house of their dreams doesn't immediately mean that prices should drop, or would you suggest that Ferrari should price based on the average affordability?

An average house is hardy in the same market as a Ferrari, you are comparing apples with oranges, moreover the luxury car market has been fairly stable. When it comes to property average income cannot afford an average house price, ultimately that does mean the price will have to fall especailly as credit dries up and lending becomes more expensive, forget the BoE lowering rates, the banks are raising their rates and removing their cheap deals now unless Britain is more cash rich than reports of debt would indicate just exactly what is going to fund the market?

Something tells me you have a vested interest?

[Mailman_1]

Supply and demand for property can only work if other factors remain unchanged,but hang on, things are changing, demand is fuelled by the availability of cheap credit, the unrealistic expectation that house prices won't fall, and rising yields, ultimately as credit dries up and yields fall further there is only one way for prices to go.



The fact that people can't afford the house of their dreams doesn't immediately mean that prices should drop, or would you suggest that Ferrari should price based on the average affordability?

An average house is hardy in the same market as a Ferrari, you are comparing apples with oranges, moreover the luxury car market has been fairly stable. When it comes to property average income cannot afford an average house price, ultimately that does mean the price will have to fall especailly as credit dries up and lending becomes more expensive, forget the BoE lowering rates, the banks are raising their rates and removing their cheap deals now unless Britain is more cash rich than reports of debt would indicate just exactly what is going to fund the market?

Something tells me you have a vested interest?

Banks are raising the rates for high risk borrowers. Borrowing with a 20%+ deposit is as cheap as always.

[Marina]

And you have to worry about your rental agreement ending and be willing to move every 6 months if need be, and can't make alterations to your home and cannot have pets, or sub-let a room or not be able to smoke at home and have to endure "inspections" by your landlord.

Very true, and you probably have to make do with cheapskate fixtures and furniture. Also, many landlords are slow to sort out problems like boilers failing, and leaking taps.

Face it AtW, with some exceptions, if long-term residents of working age don't own property by the age of 40 they either live an unusual lifestyle (not necessarily discreditable) or, to put it bluntly, they're failures. That's just the way it is in this country.

(I'd agree this doesn't apply to younger people, because practically nobody has been able to get on the housing ladder for the last few years without a big bunk up from relatives. But hopefully all that is changing now, and who knows even AtW may make the plunge in a year or two!)

[Bagpuss]

Banks are raising the rates for high risk borrowers. Borrowing with a 20%+ deposit is as cheap as always.

Well that's great for high earners, but high earners won't decide the market


IIRC 2 years ago you could get 4% discounted rates
who is offering those rates now? and what exactly is the APR (including arrangement or reservation fees?)

The cheapest rates I have seen are over 6% APR with many over 7% APR

[PAH]

Face it AtW, with some exceptions, if long-term residents of working age don't own property by the age of 40 they either live an unusual lifestyle (not necessarily discreditable) or, to put it bluntly, they're failures. That's just the way it is in this country.

How do the people on mainland Europe cope as life-long tennants seeing as the UK is pretty unique (from what I understand) in its residents obsession with property ownership? Maybe I need to understand their mindset, seeing as I'm at the wrong end of 30 and have no intentions of buying any property in the UK in the foreseeable future.

If that changes at least I've the comfort of knowing I can raise a decent deposit in months not years, providing the contracting market continues to afford me the luxury of work.

Also, apart from my contractor lifestyle meaning I don't really consider one area of the UK my home anymore, I have a dream of retiring in the sun, which will inevitably be abroad somewhere.