Mini Budget aka Fiscal Statement

[Whorty]

It seems unlikely but it might be a decent idea. Far too sensible. I wonder if he'd take the role, it would be a huge feather in his cap but then he'd be responsible for all the damage already done.

He's on a win-win .... if he regains confidence everyone will love him. If it all collapses, he can blame Truss/Kwasi

But is she brave enough to talk to him.

[AtW]

And watch the Gilts market collapse, bringing down many pensions (especially defined benefit / final salary ones), and the pound drop so low, that we import even higher inflation.

They were not collapsing over 45% tax cut - they are collapsing because Govt can’t be trusted with not u-turning on major policies they announce, even if it’s a bad policy being predictable is far better for markets than unpredictable easily u-turnable Govt

[AtW]

She has one “heavy” measure available, removing the whip. You can’t remove the whip from tens of MPs. That’s just another way of saying game over, which it is.

She got far more effective and less visible measures

[jamesbrown]

She got far more effective and less visible measures

She hasn't. The "dark arts" only work on individual MPs and the mood is way too sulphurous for any of that low-level nonsense.

[jamesbrown]

They were not collapsing over 45% tax cut - they are collapsing because Govt can’t be trusted with not u-turning on major policies they announce, even if it’s a bad policy being predictable is far better for markets than unpredictable easily u-turnable Govt

No, they were collapsing because the markets could see the massive black hole in the UK's fiscal position and the gov'ts willingess to hide it by failing to ask the OBR to report. It wasn't about any individual budget measure, it was about the aggregate measures, the briefing about doubling down later, and the willingness to avoid scrutiny or combine them with spending cuts.

[jamesbrown]

He's on a win-win .... if he regains confidence everyone will love him. If it all collapses, he can blame Truss/Kwasi

But is she brave enough to talk to him.

No, because it's effectively saying "I give up". There's no way in which she can put Sunak in (who is, in any case, hated by a large fraction of MPs and members) and retain her position. Even the remotest hint of authority will be shot. You may say it already is, but things can always get worse until they end.

[AtW]

No, they were collapsing because the markets could see the massive black hole in the UK's fiscal position and the gov'ts willingess to hide it by failing to ask the OBR to report. It wasn't about any individual budget measure, it was about the aggregate measures, the briefing about doubling down later, and the willingness to avoid scrutiny or combine them with spending cuts.

And before we had balanced budget without black hole?

One “tax cut” was just reversal of new uncalled for and manifesto breaking tax (NICs), another was also introduced by ****ed Rishi totally out of the blue (corp tax) - 1% cut to 19% was already planned for 2023 (or 24).

Truss was on record during her “election” that she will do the above - it was known for months

So the only “new” thing was 45% tax cut which would have made money or at least cost little

[AtW]

No, because it's effectively saying "I give up". There's no way in which she can put Sunak in (who is, in any case, hated by a large fraction of MPs and members) and retain her position. Even the remotest hint of authority will be shot. You may say it already is, but things can always get worse until they end.

Give him Northern Ireland’s portfoilio? He can spend quality time there convincing locals that their 12.5% corp tax rate is bad

[AtW]

She hasn't. The "dark arts" only work on individual MPs and the mood is way too sulphurous for any of that low-level nonsense.

Better go down fighting

[jamesbrown]

And before we had balanced budget without black hole?

One “tax cut” was just reversal of new uncalled for and manifesto breaking tax (NICs), another was also introduced by ****ed Rishi totally out of the blue (corp tax) - 1% cut to 19% was already planned for 2023 (or 24).

Truss was on record during her “election” that she will do the above - it was known for months

So the only “new” thing was 45% tax cut which would have made money or at least cost little

It's pretty obvious that when the Eye of Sauron is looking for cretins on which to cast its gaze, you don't run out into the open and start screaming "look at me!".

Unfortunately, the markets did look.

This has nothing to do with Truss's leadership election promises. If she'd stuck to those and done a smaller energy package, this would not have happened. Obviously.

The size of the energy package was "new".

The SDLT cut was "new".

The Chapter 10 IR35 reversal was "new".

The dividend tax cuts were "new".

The 45% rate cut was "new".

The 1% income tax cut was "new".

The doubling down on "we're just getting started with tax cuts" was new.