DOOM: "Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK"

[jamesbrown]

Quite possibly. I'm rather losing interest in the whole non-debate. But in my defence (such as it is!) I was using the figures from the ONS website, which should be accurate. A lot of other numbers come from American research results, which are not directly comparable to the UK situation..

Fwiw, I don't think the Graun is helping matters with their reporting. There's a difference between the actual science and the reporting of it, which is often quite bad.

[malvolio]

I think you’re confusing two separate things. There’s a hospitalisation rate and an infection hospitalisation rate. Two different denominators.

Quite possibly. I'm rather losing interest in the whole non-debate. But in my defence (such as it is!) I was using the figures from the ONS website, which should be accurate. A lot of other numbers come from American research results, which are not directly comparable to the UK situation..

[jamesbrown]

Hospitalisation rates in the UK are currently 6.4 per 100,000. That's 0.0064%, rather less than the above "even if Omicron causes a less severe hospitalisation rate of 1% or 0.5% compared with Delta’s 1.5%, " and the bulk of those are for unvaccinated patients. So why trust the rest of the article?

Scientists have agendas too, you know.

As for the evolutionary pressure thesis, it's neither the Darwin/Wallace speciation mechanism nor Lamarck's deterministic one but the rather more recent studies on how evolution works and the speed at which Darwin's "beneficial mutations" operate in a real world population. Facebook is oddly quiet on that subject sadly, so I had to go and read some published (and peer reviewed) papers. It's what happens when you have a life-long interest in the subject. But agsint ignoraance, the Gods themselves strive in vain.

I think you’re confusing two separate things. There’s a hospitalisation rate and an infection hospitalisation rate. Two different denominators.

[malvolio]

So multiple academics in the field are going to the trouble of pointing out that this old trope is total misinformation, but we're supposed to ignore them and listen to someone who researches via Facebook whilst on the can?

Hospitalisation rates in the UK are currently 6.4 per 100,000. That's 0.0064%, rather less than the above "even if Omicron causes a less severe hospitalisation rate of 1% or 0.5% compared with Delta’s 1.5%, " and the bulk of those are for unvaccinated patients. So why trust the rest of the article?

Scientists have agendas too, you know.

As for the evolutionary pressure thesis, it's neither the Darwin/Wallace speciation mechanism nor Lamarck's deterministic one but the rather more recent studies on how evolution works and the speed at which Darwin's "beneficial mutations" operate in a real world population. Facebook is oddly quiet on that subject sadly, so I had to go and read some published (and peer reviewed) papers. It's what happens when you have a life-long interest in the subject. But agsint ignoraance, the Gods themselves strive in vain.

[mattster]

The problem with using the Grauniad as a source...

If your host is moving about and not incapacitated or at death's door , the virus will have more opportunity to spread. So a strain with a lower or slower lethality will have the evolutionary advantage.

Don't confuse Darwin with Lamarck.

But I agree the lethality of omicron is still an unknown.

So multiple academics in the field are going to the trouble of pointing out that this old trope is total misinformation, but we're supposed to ignore them and listen to someone who researches via Facebook whilst on the can?

[AtW]

""It adds: “The rapid spread of Omicron means that action to limit pressures on the health system might have to come earlier than intuition suggests.” Its calculations suggest that even if Omicron causes a less severe hospitalisation rate of 1% or 0.5% compared with Delta’s 1.5%, then “stringent national measures’” would be needed by 18 December at the latest."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...k-leak-reveals

[AtW]

If your host is moving about and not incapacitated or at death's door , the virus will have more opportunity to spread. So a strain with a lower or slower lethality will have the evolutionary advantage.

“99% of transmission occurs before anybody even gets to hospital,” the severity of disease is “a very minor selection pressure”.

[malvolio]

For idiots who keep posting tulip about "200 years of viral understanding bulltulip" -

""Ferguson said, at present, however, there was very little data on the severity of disease caused by the new variant, and that it was not necessarily the case that viruses evolved to cause less severe illness – such a situation only occurs if it favours their transmission. With Covid, as “99% of transmission occurs before anybody even gets to hospital,” the severity of disease is “a very minor selection pressure”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-ferguson-says

The problem with using the Grauniad as a source...

If your host is moving about and not incapacitated or at death's door , the virus will have more opportunity to spread. So a strain with a lower or slower lethality will have the evolutionary advantage.

Don't confuse Darwin with Lamarck.

But I agree the lethality of omicron is still an unknown.

[AtW]

For idiots who keep posting tulip about "200 years of viral understanding bulltulip" -

""Ferguson said, at present, however, there was very little data on the severity of disease caused by the new variant, and that it was not necessarily the case that viruses evolved to cause less severe illness – such a situation only occurs if it favours their transmission. With Covid, as “99% of transmission occurs before anybody even gets to hospital,” the severity of disease is “a very minor selection pressure”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-ferguson-says

[NorthWestPerm2Contr]

Really? Most people I know haven't had it at all.

Working is fully remote but every week we have at least a couple of staff off due to covid. In the local schools entire classes are catching it and taking it home. Football games are getting cancelled! I think nearly everybody will have caught at at least once by now.