DOOM: "Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK"

[d000hg]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59673150 - just under 80k new cases in 24 hours. Highest number ever, and something like 50% up on the start of the week. Omicron has properly arrived?

[AtW]

"Omicron likely biggest threat of Covid pandemic so far, says UK health chief

Head of UK Health Security Agency warns MPs to expect ‘staggering’ growth rate in coming days

The head of the UK Health Security Agency has called the Omicron variant “probably the most significant threat” since the start of the pandemic as she told MPs to expect “staggering” growth rate over the coming days.

Dr Jenny Harries told the Commons transport select committee on Wednesday that it was still too early to judge the potential risk of the new Covid variant and warned that the virus was “growing faster”.

Her stark warning came after the government’s most senior public health adviser, Dr Susan Hopkins, told MPs on Tuesday that Omicron infections in Britain could reach 1m a day by the end of the month.

“It’s probably the most significant threat we’ve had since the start of the pandemic and I’m sure for example the numbers that we see on data over the next few days will be quite staggering compared to the rate of growth that we’ve seen in cases for previous variants,” Harries said."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-health-chief



Clearly Dr Jenny Harries does not read malvolio on here, that's total incompetence to ignore such an eminent expert in everything, she must be sacked at once and malvolio installed as the Head of the UK Health Security Agency.

[d000hg]

Mal clearly just wants a bit of validation from strangers on the internet about how smart he is.

[Lost It]

Hospitalisation rates in the UK are currently 6.4 per 100,000. That's 0.0064%, rather less than the above "even if Omicron causes a less severe hospitalisation rate of 1% or 0.5% compared with Delta’s 1.5%, " and the bulk of those are for unvaccinated patients. So why trust the rest of the article?

Scientists have agendas too, you know.

As for the evolutionary pressure thesis, it's neither the Darwin/Wallace speciation mechanism nor Lamarck's deterministic one but the rather more recent studies on how evolution works and the speed at which Darwin's "beneficial mutations" operate in a real world population. Facebook is oddly quiet on that subject sadly, so I had to go and read some published (and peer reviewed) papers. It's what happens when you have a life-long interest in the subject. But agsint ignoraance, the Gods themselves strive in vain.

Again this information is sadly lacking in, erm, information.
Without knowing what section of the population, i.e. does it effect people of certain age groups, ethnicity, what other ailments make it worse, if you are a heavy woodbine smoker with damaged lungs are you more likely to catch it or less likely to die if you do, if you have diabetes or are suffering some other ailment, reduced immunity, already had it in one form or another, have "long" covid, there's lots of information missing. Information that might just make a section of the population not worry so much?

Until this is included in the information released then the results, up to and including Darwinism effects don't really help. They just add worry.

There's lies, there's damned lies then there's statistics.

[PCTNN]

Crunch time is the next 3 days I reckon.

That's my biggest fear. If I test positive from now that's it, our Christmas plans are fecked

[mattster]

Have not seen any yet, but much quicker incubation seems necessary for such fast spread.

Does that necessarily follow? If you assume a doubling time of 2 days, then you could achieve that by infecting 2 people within 2 days, or 10 people within a week. I suppose if you had a solid R number you could back out the time until infectious?

[AtW]

That does seem possible, wonder if there's any data on that?

Have not seen any yet, but much quicker incubation seems necessary for such fast spread.

[mattster]

Omicron must be incubating quicker to get such speeds

That does seem possible, wonder if there's any data on that?

[AtW]

"Omicron now dominant Covid variant in London, analysis suggests

Some 51.8% of a sample of new coronavirus cases in London with specimen dates for December 11 and 12 were found to have S gene target failure (SGTF) - a way of detecting the likely presence of Omicron."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...083aad70475f86

Omicron must be incubating quicker to get such speeds

[mattster]

On the other hand, my partner and I went to a wedding on Saturday with 100+ people and so far both of us are testing negative and we haven't been pinged yet.

Either immunity system is the freaking bomb or lateral flow tests are garbage

Median incubation is something like 5.5 days, so you wouldn't really expect a positive result until tomorrow or Friday. I and the rest of my family are still testing negative with fully infected son in the house (symptomatic/pos test since Saturday). Crunch time is the next 3 days I reckon.