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R>1

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    You don't just get many weeks of 30-40% growth in infection sand then suddely turning into 30-40% drop without any levelling off - does not happen naturally, and if it did then it must be first.

    My theory -

    1. "Pingdemic" bulltulip in the press and real pings (due to increased infections) made lots of young people delete app, so that they don't get pinged.
    2. Since they don't get pinged they'll be less likely taking a test that would have picked up asymptomatics (more likely among the young).
    3. YUGE DROP IN REPORTED INFECTIONS!

    Hospital admissions over next 4-6 weeks should show if this is correct.

    Comment


      Originally posted by minestrone View Post
      It's falling because 91% of us have antibodies and we have one of the highest take ups for vaccines that we have known for 9 months are 90% effective in stopping you getting it.

      This thread has been one long bed wetting session for the CUK deranged. No surprise AtW is bang in the middle of it.
      sorry matey but if you believe in any of the policies of this gov and how society works today is in your interest I think you are the deranged one...

      most of they people vaccinated initially with AZ - higher risk groups that got it through first wave or >6m ago might not have much immunity left from the vaccine + delta variant coming along.
      obviously I would wish that you are right and I am very wrong because there might be serious economical and political issues coming after it but I also think it is not wise to write everything off for now.

      Comment



        Originally posted by AtW View Post
        You don't just get many weeks of 30-40% growth in infection sand then suddely turning into 30-40% drop without any levelling off - does not happen naturally, and if it did then it must be first.

        My theory -

        1. "Pingdemic" bulltulip in the press and real pings (due to increased infections) made lots of young people delete app, so that they don't get pinged.
        2. Since they don't get pinged they'll be less likely taking a test that would have picked up asymptomatics (more likely among the young).
        3. YUGE DROP IN REPORTED INFECTIONS!

        Hospital admissions over next 4-6 weeks should show if this is correct.
        Like any of your predictions have been remotely right.

        Originally posted by AtW View Post
        Prediction: hospitalisation numbers will be well above 10k by end of July.

        1st July number - 1905.

        Comment


          Originally posted by minestrone View Post
          Like any of your predictions have been remotely right.
          Well, I was right about R>1.

          Latest number for hospitalisations I have is 5238 for 23 July, so 7 more days to go - will probably be at 6k+, less than what I thought, which is good, but what was your prediction? Oh you did not have one, so STFU then and let adults talk.

          Comment


            Originally posted by AtW View Post
            You don't just get many weeks of 30-40% growth in infection sand then suddely turning into 30-40% drop without any levelling off - does not happen naturally, and if it did then it must be first.

            My theory -

            1. "Pingdemic" bulltulip in the press and real pings (due to increased infections) made lots of young people delete app, so that they don't get pinged.
            2. Since they don't get pinged they'll be less likely taking a test that would have picked up asymptomatics (more likely among the young).
            3. YUGE DROP IN REPORTED INFECTIONS!

            Hospital admissions over next 4-6 weeks should show if this is correct.
            we had infection numbers accelerating week after week, it will be naive to expect for them to suddenly stop especially after freedom day & football final so close to each other. they are fiddling with the numbers or making them somehow disappear. We just don't know how yet...

            could be them youngsters innit roaming the towns and deleting apps or they've hired someone very competent for the job of adding up cells in excel...

            Comment


              Originally posted by AtW View Post

              Well, I was right about R>1.

              Latest number for hospitalisations I have is 5238 for 23 July, so 7 more days to go - will probably be at 6k+, less than what I thought, which is good, but what was your prediction? Oh you did not have one, so STFU then and let adults talk.
              au contraire...

              Vaccine - Contractor UK Bulletin Board

              My information has been flawless on covid.

              Comment


                Yeah, and Biden is lost the election, according to you...

                Today's numbers for 26 Jul : 5918 in hospital (+1303) on week, 5 days to go, so probably will hit 6500, with +1500 increase per week we'll hit 10k by mid August, so I'll be off by 2 weeks in this case.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by AtW View Post
                  Yeah, and Biden is lost the election, according to you...

                  Today's numbers for 26 Jul : 5918 in hospital (+1303) on week, 5 days to go, so probably will hit 6500, with +1500 increase per week we'll hit 10k by mid August, so I'll be off by 2 weeks in this case.
                  I'll just quote this here.

                  And you said "well above" not "just getting there"

                  Comment


                    TestMangler Where is you when one needs?

                    Comment


                      Hospitalisations will level off in about 7-10 days. Maybe high 8s. Won't hit 10.

                      Certainly not "well above"

                      Comment

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