UK scientists call for debate on allowing ‘big wave of infection’

[AtW]

Lethality could be “just” 10% - that won’t slow down virus if has got R=2, or 3 like SARS-2 seems to have (without mitigations)

SARS-1/MERS (also coronaviruses) had lethality like 30-40%, they were only stopped with heavy mitigations.

[SueEllen]

Lethality could be “just” 10% - that won’t slow down virus if has got R=2, or 3 like SARS-2 seems to have (without mitigations)

SARS-1/MERS (also coronaviruses) had lethality like 30-40%, they were only stopped with heavy mitigations.

Covid has an R rate of 3.

The flu pandemic of 1918 the average R rate was 1.8 while seasonal flu is about 1.2

The R rate of measles in a population with no immunity is 15.

[mattster]

There's a trade off between lethality and contagiousness. Corpses don't spread disease. It's been good at spreading because we have no immunity at all. Our bodies are fighting off viruses all the time. Mostly we don't notice.

There are still plenty of diseases with both higher R and higher lethality than Covid, so its certainly possible. Smallpox was horrendous, with an R0 of 5 and mortality of 30%. I wonder how much better we would be at treating it these days? Hopefully we won't have to find out.

[AtW]

Covid has an R rate of 3.

The flu pandemic of 1918 the average R rate was 1.8 while seasonal flu is about 1.2

The R rate of measles in a population with no immunity is 15.

What about R of Kent variant, must be 4+ if bog standard Covid is 3.

10% instant drop-dead mortality won’t slow down such virus, considering we already had such coronaviruses and that they mutate a lot if allowed to spread it follows that things can get real deadly anytime in the future if position of “let’s just live with the plague” is adopted