Reply to: UK scientists call for debate on allowing ‘big wave of infection’

[AtW]

Covid has an R rate of 3.

The flu pandemic of 1918 the average R rate was 1.8 while seasonal flu is about 1.2

The R rate of measles in a population with no immunity is 15.

What about R of Kent variant, must be 4+ if bog standard Covid is 3.

10% instant drop-dead mortality won’t slow down such virus, considering we already had such coronaviruses and that they mutate a lot if allowed to spread it follows that things can get real deadly anytime in the future if position of “let’s just live with the plague” is adopted

[mattster]

There's a trade off between lethality and contagiousness. Corpses don't spread disease. It's been good at spreading because we have no immunity at all. Our bodies are fighting off viruses all the time. Mostly we don't notice.

There are still plenty of diseases with both higher R and higher lethality than Covid, so its certainly possible. Smallpox was horrendous, with an R0 of 5 and mortality of 30%. I wonder how much better we would be at treating it these days? Hopefully we won't have to find out.

[SueEllen]

Lethality could be “just” 10% - that won’t slow down virus if has got R=2, or 3 like SARS-2 seems to have (without mitigations)

SARS-1/MERS (also coronaviruses) had lethality like 30-40%, they were only stopped with heavy mitigations.

Covid has an R rate of 3.

The flu pandemic of 1918 the average R rate was 1.8 while seasonal flu is about 1.2

The R rate of measles in a population with no immunity is 15.

[AtW]

Lethality could be “just” 10% - that won’t slow down virus if has got R=2, or 3 like SARS-2 seems to have (without mitigations)

SARS-1/MERS (also coronaviruses) had lethality like 30-40%, they were only stopped with heavy mitigations.

[BrilloPad]

Now now, every debate has limits. Don't play down manflu , it's a very serious and very real condition. I don't go around mocking childbirth.

Neither do I. When MrsBP got pregnant she put a beach ball where the sun doesn't shine and inflated it just to make me have empathy...

[BrilloPad]

We need to kill off as many old white males as possible particularly in developed countries. Some of them are just so damn expensive to keep living....

Can we just kill those with an orange tinge?

[ladymuck]

Corpses do spread disease, just not the one we're currently talking about

There's a reason all cultures put the dead somewhere separate from the living, at least until all the squishy bits have gone.

[NotAllThere]

...what would stop SARS-2 from evolving into more lethal version? ...

My point is that Covid is far deadlier than the flu, and spreads better (even before new variants).

There's a trade off between lethality and contagiousness. Corpses don't spread disease. It's been good at spreading because we have no immunity at all. Our bodies are fighting off viruses all the time. Mostly we don't notice.

You forgot men and their terrible man flu sufferings. I just don't know how the poor lambs cope.

It's not man 'flu. It's man cold. And it's very serious. More painful than childbirth. You may scoff, but you'll never experience a man cold.

[AtW]

"LONDON — British government scientists are increasingly finding the coronavirus variant first detected in Britain to be linked to a higher risk of death than other versions of the virus, a devastating trend that highlights the serious risks and considerable uncertainties of this new phase of the pandemic."

Coronavirus Live News and Updates - The New York Times

But it should be ok in 100 years, maybe!

[DonaldJTrump]

We need to kill off as many old white males as possible particularly in developed countries. Some of them are just so damn expensive to keep living....

If I said something similar for young black males to reduce crime waves there would be uproar

[SueEllen]

That's God for the invention of Life Insurance!

We need to kill off as many old white males as possible particularly in developed countries. Some of them are just so damn expensive to keep living....

[Scoobos]

You forgot men and their terrible man flu sufferings. I just don't know how the poor lambs cope.

Now now, every debate has limits. Don't play down manflu , it's a very serious and very real condition. I don't go around mocking childbirth.

[AtW]

You forgot men and their terrible man flu sufferings. I just don't know how the poor lambs cope.

That's God for the invention of Life Insurance!

[ladymuck]

I suspect it will be more like within 5 years.

And dont underesimtate common colds:

"a cold can also have more severe symptoms in the very young and the very old. Older people are more likely to develop a more serious infection compared with adults or older children.

Another group of people who are more severely affected by infection with cold-causing viruses are people with an existing lung condition. They can include people with asthma, cystic fibrosis or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Infection with a virus that causes inflammation of the airways can make breathing much harder"

You forgot men and their terrible man flu sufferings. I just don't know how the poor lambs cope.

[AtW]

I suspect it will be more like within 5 years.

Are you prepared to bet your life on it?

Boris sure is.