Doom: English Lockdown

[AtW]

We have family members who work in the NHS and even in Spanish hospitals. They all say the same... nowhere near capacity, not being overwhelmed and don't understand the government policy panic.

Where I am it's obvious where the spread vectors are, Boomers continuously going for lunch/dinner as they can't cook for themselves and have massive final salary pensions and no hobbies to entertain themselves. Just lock-down the Boomers and raid their pensions to pay for everything.

It’s not what happens now that’s important, but what will happen very soon (matter of weeks) unless course of Titanic is changed - before the collision with iceberg everything was totally fine

[darmstadt]

All the media is reporting 4000+ from coronavirus itself but who knows if they are reporting it correctly since I don't believe there was any official press release or anything.

You cannot accurately predict something that hasn't happened before (although people always try). No where has reached the level of death they were predicting nor the level of infections. I find it hard to believe we are going to hit 3 times what we did earlier in the year when everyone was at work, using public transport, not social distancing or wear masks, etc.

The 4000 is a worse case scenario which was extrapolated using slightly different criteria:

[Old Greg]

It’s not what happens now that’s important, but what will happen very soon (matter of weeks) unless course of Titanic is changed - before the collision with iceberg everything was totally fine

It's very odd thinking that people who work in the NHS must be experts in epidemiology. It reminds me of the CUK poster who thought that a civil engineer climate change skeptic had expertise in climate change because civil engineers build dams and bridges, which are imp[acted by climate change.

[AtW]

Does one need to be an expert in anything other than basic geometrical progression and some knowledge about limits in hospital capacity?

[minestrone]

The 4000 is a worse case scenario which was extrapolated using slightly different criteria:

Warwick should stick to tenable, I don't know who's idea it was to ask him for a COVID death rate prediction.

[jayn200]

The 4000 is a worse case scenario which was extrapolated using slightly different criteria:

Thank you. That makes sense now. Much better context then the media just saying 4000+ deaths a day expected.

[northernladuk]

Yeah I agree but the government also putting out estimates of 4000+ deaths a day doesn't help either when there is no data to support that. That would imply like at least 1/4 - 1/5 of the population getting infected in a single week.... There is absolutely nothing to support this happening.

But you've missed some details around that i.e. a timeline again. Ok they might have gotten it wrong time wise but if we keep on like this and don't do something to stop it it's highly possible will hit it.
If someone quoted the infection figures to us 4 months ago we'd have moaned and complained about it being unrealistic blah blah blah and look at us now.

These are worst case predictions if something doesn't change. The fact they might be out by a good percetage doesn't mean we should do any less. This is still people dying. 4000, 3000, 2500... we still need to do something pretty drastic to avoid it.

[northernladuk]

The 4000 is a worse case scenario which was extrapolated using slightly different criteria:

Not sure why people are arguing about that graph. None of the numbers on there are acceptable or should make a blind bit of difference about the action needed to stop it.

[jayn200]

But you've missed some details around that i.e. a timeline again. Ok they might have gotten it wrong time wise but if we keep on like this and don't do something to stop it it's highly possible will hit it.
If someone quoted the infection figures to us 4 months ago we'd have moaned and complained about it being unrealistic blah blah blah and look at us now.

These are worst case predictions if something doesn't change. The fact they might be out by a good percetage doesn't mean we should do any less. This is still people dying. 4000, 3000, 2500... we still need to do something pretty drastic to avoid it.

I do agree that something needs to be done to alter course but just saying 4000 a day doesn't pass the sense check. Now that darmstadt posted the models it makes sense that it's just the worst case model put out there amoung many that are being reviewed.

[Hobosapien]

Better prepare yourselves for the long haul, this ain't going away anytime soon:


Covid: When will it be over and we can do this again?

I don't think it will settle down at all in the next 18 months.

Game over man, game over.


Seeing as the root of the problem in the UK is the top heavy population in terms of age and the lack of infrastructure to cope with them all getting ill around the same time, maybe it needs some proper out of the box thinking. How about putting the most vulnerable in quarantine for 2 weeks then onto deep cleaned cruise ships for the winter until a vaccine is available. They can sail the world while the rest of us get on with normal life. If there's too many of them, turn a mediteranian island into an over 60s only holiday camp. Strict controls to stop the virus getting in. Sorted.