11K per week extra dead than average

[WTFH]

Prediction is 43 million infected, 1.46 million dead (at the current rate of 3.4%)
We'll hit the limit on infections in about another 4 weeks, although if extra hygiene measures are in place, that might reduce the limit to around 30 million, and in 16 weeks time, with deaths reduced to under 1 million

In theory, in 2-3 weeks time, if the restrictions work, then we’ll see a reduction in new cases (whether tested or not). After that, the only new cases we should get are from HCPs, their families and the families of those who have the virus but stayed at home.

With that, and the 6 month window Dr Harris talked about, then someone could probably draw a graph to see what the figures might be.
I’d suspect a reduction by a factor of about 9 compared to the figures for better hygiene through hand washing.

Let's see how close these are.

1.46 million with no measures
<1 million with basic measures (hand washing)
110,000 with current restrictions.

[Paddy]

That Boris chap has a very odd definition of "success".

As in the charge of the Light Brigade.

[WTFH]

That Boris chap has a very odd definition of "success".

His Home Secretary announced at one of last week's Covid-19 briefings that the government's policies on policing had successfully reduced shoplifting for April 2020 compared with April 2019.

[quackhandle]

His Home Secretary announced at one of last week's Covid-19 briefings that the government's policies on policing had successfully reduced shoplifting for April 2020 compared with April 2019.

There's that Taking Back Control.

qh

[DoctorStrangelove]

Along with removal of brains in the Cabinet from the sounds of it.

Anyway it's good to see that the Tory plans to get Care for the Elderly done are well underway.

[Old Greg]

Along with removal of brains in the Cabinet from the sounds of it.

Anyway it's good to see that the Tory plans to get Care for the Tory voters done are well underway.

FTFY

The first sentence explains the second.

[darmstadt]

His Home Secretary announced at one of last week's Covid-19 briefings that the government's policies on policing had successfully reduced shoplifting for April 2020 compared with April 2019.

From today's Pritti good briefing:

The chair of the home affairs committee, Yvette Cooper, said 130 countries had taken stricter approaches to the border than the UK, including Germany, New Zealand, South Korea, Italy, Singapore, Australia and Greece.

and her answer:

We are not similar to those countries, in terms of travellers and passenger flows. It’s a fact that the UK has one of the largest numbers of international arrivals, very different flows to some of the countries mentioned. That is a key consideration of Sage.

Surely then, that is a pretty damn good reason to check international arrivals and quarantine them?