Coronavirus vs Natural Deaths

[WTFH]

Please stop following me around on here,

OK, Dr Minesy, let’s get this straight. You are the one stalking me on here.

Here’s your first post on this thread:

No there isn't.

Look who it’s replying to.

You joined the thread with the sole purpose of replying to me.

One day you’ll learn how to argue and debate facts, rather than being a keyboard warrior who attacks other posters, thinking you’re some hilariously funny genius.
You’re not.

[NotAllThere]

Over here, they're expecting exponential growth to continue until next Friday at least. If social distancing measures are working, then new cases should start to level off early the following week. We're still expecting 10 to 15 thousand cases.

There is a consensus that there are two strains of the virus. One of them producing the deadly pneumonia.

This is an example of how not to say things. It's factually correct, but spreads fear as it doesn't quantify the risk. The implication is that if you get the worse strain, you'll get the deadly pneumonia inevitably. But that's not the case.

There are two strains of the virus, S and L. S is the older one with milder symptoms and less infectious. L is the one most people have. It can produce deadly pneumonia in a significant minority of people. It will make around 20% of people pretty ill. This is across the population. Different figures for different demographics.

What is coronavirus, how did it start and could the outbreak grow bigger?
Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly? | New Scientist*

“In all practical terms, the virus is as it was when it originally emerged"

So don't worry about which one you'll catch. It'll be the worse one most likely.



* I know the New Scientist article is 5th March,and reports on a study with limited data, but nothing has come out since that refutes it.

[Whorty]

Ok, go on, I'll bite ....

Sensible people see what is happening

I see what happened in China and how they controlled the spread. I didn't wait for BoJo and pals to tell me to practice social distancing, I've been doing this to keep my wife safe for weeks now. Pity everyone isn't doing the same.

only retards like Whorty think that this is a joke.

Name calling .. mature. Not hysterical at all!

As for finding the virus a joke, no I don't. I find the hysterical behavior and panic a joke.

Anybody who is educated and is able to understand the word 'exponential' will quickly see how bad this will hit us.

Not sure why you need to put the word exponential in quotes, but either way, yes, I know what that means thanks (phew, I did learn something on my stats degree!)

Now to be pedantic like Old Greg .... so you're convinced we will have it bad? Not 'could' but 'will'? You must be convinced then that the actions being pushed by the government will be ignored and no one is taking this seriously?

The world is not prepared for a pandemic.

Ah, the arrogance of the West. Something nasty spreads that can hurt us, and suddenly we all have to take action to stop it. Here's some news for you, poor countries face these types of virus/life threatening illnesses all the time, but because they don't get to us in the West people like you show no interest. Cholera and TB are top of this list. Maybe when all this dies down, start to show some compassion for others and not just be concerned for yourself?

The problem is that people have now become used to a world where nothing bad is happening. Yeah, sure, earthquake here, minor war conflict there. As long as it doesn't affect people - they aren't bothered. But global events that used to wipe out millions are not known to some because they haven't lived through them. Well that's all about to change.

FFS, the arrogance and ignorance of this comment is astounding. You, in your comfortable UK home may not be used to this, but the majority of humans on this planet are used to dealing with these threats each year. In the West, we only take note when it threatens us and our way of life.

[Whorty]

I am sure he is devastated. Losing the patronage of the forum's saddest most delusional c0ckwomble must be hard to take.

I'm only glad I read this today, and not before I went to bed last night ..... this information would have given me a sleepless night, but instead I slept like a baby

[Whorty]

What happens in the next 2 weeks is entirely dependent on the discipline of the country. If the Uk can get the R number to 1 or less we will be ok. But I'm not confident.

On the one hand you're supporting the scaremongers and panic stricken, and then you post the above which gives us our solution to controlling the spread. Why not be part of the solution and not the problem?

China controlled it's spread by controlling social contact, thus removing the ability for the virus to get to the next person, as there is no next person. This is the message we need to keep pushing, not the hystrionics being peddled by mass media, copied by some on here, and which is causing behavior like panic buying.

And for the record, I have a stats degree ( although it was a few years ago now that I've performed much modelling) and my final year thesis was modelling the spread of AIDs in Africa so I do now a little about the type of models being used .... you know, just thought I'd drop that in, incase you want to get all high and mighty =

[Whorty]

It's a pity you turned out to be a fool. A real pity, because otherwise I liked you. The fact that a complete cretin and loser like BR14 is liking your posts should tell you how far you've fallen. Where did it all go wrong? Lack of mathematical education, I suspect.

I could say te same for yourself fella ..... what's it like agreeing with oPM. PurpleG and those who are hysterical?

[Zigenare]

In terms of behaviour of people, action by government and bodycount, we're tracking two weeks behind Italy. It's gonna get grim.

On the flipper side, dolphins have returned to Venice. Greta 1 Italy 0.

They're just checking if we're all dead...

[OwlHoot]

I wont believe it until confirmed by oPM's dentist.

I won't believe a word of it until confirmed by the fount of all wisdom and ultimate arbiter of everything right and wrong, Piers Moron of the Daily Mail!

[LondonManc]

In terms of behaviour of people, action by government and bodycount, we're tracking two weeks behind Italy. It's gonna get grim.

On the flip side, dolphins have returned to Venice. Greta 1 Italy 0.

[cannon999]

Brother inlaw is a doctor at Wolverhampton hospital where two have died and one of them was 51 who was a doctor a close friend. He was health and only have very mild asthma.

He said that people have no idea what is about to hit them in two weeks time. Major sh**e storm is coming. Also you don't know if you gonna be the one who will need icu or not. He said NHS is crapping itself as it can't already cope.

He took me and my son to gp yesterday. Local sent us to another one as my son had a sniffly nose. Arrived at gp. Had to wait in car as it's one in one out. The lady and her daughter went in before us. When they came out my brother in law right away said that girl has corona. 3 minutes later an ambulance arrived with protective clothing to take the poor kid away. Her mum was in tears. They wouldn't go near the mum.

Brother in law said it's gonna be at least 1 year before anything good comes out of this. Only way is to get infected and build antibodies. He did say two drugs are being tested. One is anti malaria that has been effective in China. But it's not a vacinne which is at least 1 year out at best.

What hurts my brother in law is that no one is taking it seriously. He said when it happens to them or people around them it's too late. By that point most will be infected and your chance of survival drops. There is a consensus that there are two strains of the virus. One of them producing the deadly pneumonia.

This is a life changing event. Nothing will be the same. Sorry but with pumping silly money into a broken economy and this happening globally means nothing but bad news. As contractors were screwed all directions.

Good luck and god speed to all!

Sensible people see what is happening, only retards like Whorty think that this is a joke. Anybody who is educated and is able to understand the word 'exponential' will quickly see how bad this will hit us. The world is not prepared for a pandemic. Many highly authoritative figures have been saying this for years YouTube

The problem is that people have now become used to a world where nothing bad is happening. Yeah, sure, earthquake here, minor war conflict there. As long as it doesn't affect people - they aren't bothered. But global events that used to wipe out millions are not known to some because they haven't lived through them. Well that's all about to change.