Wisdom of the crowd - FTSE100 low point

[northernladuk]

I'm still trying to decide when to put extra money into my pension fund.

I feel like I'm trying to jump into a skipping rope game.

I don't think you can do worse than sticking it one of the Vanguard trackers or similar in the longer term but christ knows what is going to happen in the short term. I feel exactly the same.

[scooterscot]

This monthly chart is telling us something very ugly is on the horizon..

It could happen in a flash or a slow miserable 3-years.. either way there's a high degree of probability the index is going down by 30%.

[scooterscot]

I don't think you can do worse than sticking it one of the Vanguard trackers or similar in the longer term but christ knows what is going to happen in the short term. I feel exactly the same.

Traditional investors should forget equities at the minute, massively overvalued. Focus on commodities instead... the reason? They are considerably undervalued. More so when we consider the number of people coming out of poverty (thinking China), who will push up the demand for said commodities.

If you want a little more risk, buy some Bitcoin (5% of portfolio?) or a fund that tracks it. It is very clear we've left the bear market now.

[BlasterBates]

I waded into the New York stock exchange yesterday evening, big mess with plenty of blood on the floor, and managed to pick up some cheap Verizon shares.

[scooterscot]

I waded into the New York stock exchange yesterday evening, big mess with plenty of blood on the floor, and managed to pick up some cheap Verizon shares.

Was "Gestern Abend" Ihr erste gedacht? :-)

[BlasterBates]

Was "Gestern Abend" Ihr erste gedacht? :-)

probably

[lukemg]

I'm just gutted I've fired my last buy bullet, I am all in on shares now and trying to scratch some more out of the company to buy more.
Fill ya boots, this is the dip you have been waiting for.
No-one knows where it's going to - NO-ONE. I do know it will be a lot higher than this at some time in the next 10 years.

[scooterscot]

I'm just gutted I've fired my last buy bullet, I am all in on shares now and trying to scratch some more out of the company to buy more.
Fill ya boots, this is the dip you have been waiting for.
No-one knows where it's going to - NO-ONE. I do know it will be a lot higher than this at some time in the next 10 years.

Oh the irony.

[scooterscot]

I do know it will be a lot higher than this at some time in the next 10 years.

In addition, you might be surprised how incorrect the above statement is... I've circled the low points of previous recessions on the UK FTSE... do you see the length of time from peak to circled area? Do you also notice it is equal to the amount of time to recover to previous peak?

Now look at the last circled area according to the resistance trend I've drawn. I've not made this up, this is the chart telling us there is a slow resistance unlike anything we've seen before with a bear market that could last until 2025. Consider we've not had a recession since 2008, rather than every 8-10 years. This is falling on the back end of 12 years of boom. We could equally therefore see 5 years of recovery before we back to today's levels!!

A lot higher in 10 years time you say? I'll wager we'll be no higher than we are today. Imagine contributing to a linked share index pension for the next 10 years and not seeing any appreciation apart from added capital.

[DealorNoDeal]

You are overlooking one important factor - dividends.

I don't know what the yield on the FTSE is at the moment but over 10 years it would compound to a significant amount, which would make up for subdued capital growth.

In any case, if you have a well diversified portfolio, spread across multiple asset classes*, then none of this should really matter.

* global stocks, bonds, commodities, property, precious metals