stock market crash

[northernladuk]

A loss of confidence will trigger the collapse - does not matter at that point if the FED fills the system with funny money, they'll only destroy the dollar quicker than expected and the US most certainly does not want that. They want to retain some world reserve status.

Taxes have to go up. Then comes massive deflation. There is no hiding the loss of income to the treasury when ties with the UK's largest trading partner are throw into chaos. Taxes will have to increase internally to make up the loss.

The rich created the mess, the poor pay for it. Same old same old.

FOS

[TheGreenBastard]

A loss of confidence will trigger the collapse - does not matter at that point if the FED fills the system with funny money, they'll only destroy the dollar quicker than expected and the US most certainly does not want that. They want to retain some world reserve status.

Taxes have to go up. Then comes massive deflation. There is no hiding the loss of income to the treasury when ties with the UK's largest trading partner are throw into chaos. Taxes will have to increase internally to make up the loss.

The rich created the mess, the poor pay for it. Same old same old.

Dollar collapse would require devaluation against other first class currencies. Sadly in regards to your theory other central banks are partaking in massive QE money printing of their own.

From my perspective the configuration of the US market with its tech dominance is going to weather this storm much better than old money Europe.

[scooterscot]

Dollar collapse would require devaluation against other first class currencies. Sadly in regards to your theory other central banks are partaking in massive QE money printing of their own.

From my perspective the configuration of the US market with its tech dominance is going to weather this storm much better than old money Europe.

Half right. Is anyone expecting 'other currency' appreciation against the dollar? Not a bit. But that's what is now likely going to happen in the years ahead. Especially with Euro. And the ECB are bricking it. The Euro is growing in strength week after week against the dollar and pound. Printing a lot more is an option, but not popular. If Europe becomes more expensive then the UK deals are going to seem very expensive increasing deflation risk in the UK by some margin. Interesting times ahead.

The US tech companies are in a massive bubble, the higher they rise the harder they fall. Take away from tech companies from the S&P 500 and the remaining businesses have hardly budged an inch.


source:
One Question for the ECB: How Will It Tackle the Strong Euro?

Have noticed even against Bitcoin, the EURO is strong than the dollar price causing an a divergence I've not seen before. I've started taking more interest in measuring BTC/EUR pair over the dollar to understand if BTC is showing strength or not.

Investors want to know how the European Central Bank is going to tackle the euro’s strength.

It’s been a guessing game since ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said “the euro-dollar rate does matter,” hours after the common currency breached $1.20 for the first time in more than two years.


Money markets priced in a 10 basis-point cut in the main policy rate by next September, the euro tumbled and bonds advanced, all on the assumption that the central bank will eventually do more than just talk down the euro. A stronger currency makes it harder for the ECB to reach its inflation target.


“It seems highly likely that next week’s ECB meeting will have a dovish slant, partly in response to the strength of the euro,” wrote Jamie Searle, a rate strategist at Citigroup Inc. “A change in policy stance seems unlikely, however.”

[TheGreenBastard]

The US tech companies are in a massive bubble, the higher they rise the harder they fall. Take away from tech companies from the S&P 500 and the remaining businesses have hardly budged an inch.

Very emotive, in this reality the S&P is tech heavy. It's just as useful to pose "imagine the German stock markets without the car industry".

[scooterscot]

What is emotive? I'd rather ask or do, what is probable? Higher highs in an over extended stock market? Very improbable.

Lets have a chart...

Notice something at the close of August on the monthly chart below? A resistance trend line of higher highs price action diverging with lower lows on the RSI (strength index). This resistance has been forming since early 2018, when I started this thread.

The sell off that ended last week just so happen to coincide with a new month and at resistance.

Look how far extended price action is above the 50-week moving average (blue line).

Look left to see what happens every time to price action after such an extension.

Clearly a 50% drop is in the making here. Which would be underwhelming as it would only take us back to 2016, and market were vastly overextended during this time to. Ugly couple of years ahead.

[TheGreenBastard]

Lets have a chart...

There'll be another stock market crash in May / June - should be able to pin point the week nearer the time.

Hmm.

[scooterscot]

Mmmm nothing. If you're trading every other month you're not an investor, you're a gambler.

[Andy2]

softbank has been identified as the entity behind tech rally , who bought call options worth $4 billion
how can one company cause such a massive rally, its ridiculous

[scooterscot]

Similar thoughts. Article in the FT about this.

Reckon they realise they'll be bankrupt with the WeWork fiasco so why not go all in on the Stock Market rally? Nicely played - but can't they get out in time...

[Whorty]

FTSE doing it's normal Monday morning rally (1.3% so far) following the normal Friday sell off

Why, why, why won't it look at Scooty's graph and crash as he keeps saying it should?!?