stock market crash

[scooterscot]

Wont happen unless its sub $700 to mine which wont happen in this economy.

Dont forget most refiners are shut due to Covid-19.

A crisis like this can easily decouple futures price from physical supply price which is what we are seeing at present.

In this economy - exactly - 100% agree. Tomorrow's (figuratively speaking) economy will be far different than the one we leave behind of those past 10-15 years. Gold reacts to economic uncertainty & inflation. I'd argue we're sooner entering a period of deflation, massive deflation. I know everyone is expecting inflation + hyper inflation following money printing, therefore everyone is bullish on gold. However we've already had inflation, bucket loads of it. Look at inflated asset prices of everything around you. Genau so (how do you say that in English?! Brain fade...) dollars are in demand to balance the base money supply following years and years of fake electronic money printing by the banks in the form of newly created debt will only create even more downward pressure on Gold.

As with every major economic downturn unemployment rises and wages fall. Folks are so desperate for work they'll accept lower wages. You think wages are low now? Depression - the name is well earned. Following the crash of 1929 after the roaring 20's, we saw a massive drop in confidence & demand. This drop in demand trickled through ever sector, just like we're seeing today. See the table below as to how wages became cheaper. Thus, gold mining costs will tank. That should scare the crap out of any gold bug.

In my eyes Gold is going to tank. People are buying it for the wrong reasons. Once you have it, what do you do with it in a world that is cash strapped? You still need cash, therefore you'll sell it to buy food and everyday things to live. The margin calls we've seen recently should be warning shot across the bow for many.

Polite disagreement welcomed - I've spent hours studying the subject, historical references etc. I still think it's a good idea to hold gold as part of ones portfolio, but I'm quite bearish as to future price action performance.


https://www.nber.org/chapters/c2256.pdf

[BrilloPad]

I'd argue we're sooner entering a period of deflation, massive deflation.

I'm expecting inflation to go crazy in the coming months, at that time so will gold. Italy will be sitting pretty soon enough.

[BR14]

good, in't he??

faux fritz's finest forecasts.

[BrilloPad]

good, in't he??

faux fritz's finest forecasts.

Predict everything. Just remember the result that comes true. Its a pity really because despite what many on here say, I enjoy Scooters graphs.

Oh well...

[scooterscot]

One is a macro trend (over the next 2-3 years) the the other more immediate - surely that's obvious! Yar a practicing pettifogger ;-)

Glad you're paying attention. But to be clear, deflation is what most folks will notice. Inflation in the short term not so much, partly because we're already so used to it.

[Whorty]

good, in't he??

faux fritz's finest forecasts.

To be fair to him .... he makes every conceivable prediction ... up, down, stay the same, zig-zag left and right .... when one of them hits the mark he calls a success (whilst hoping no one spots the 99 predictions that were total bollox).

[scooterscot]

Only one prediction - the same as the start of this tread no matter how you try to spin it.

[Whorty]

Only one prediction - the same as the start of this tread no matter how you try to spin it.

Of course there is

[scooterscot]

At last you're woke.

[Whorty]

At last you're woke.

Do you even know what that means?