stock market crash

[scooterscot]

I've noticed that you seem to really relish that prospect.

"The misery that is now upon us is but the passing of greed - the bitterness of men who fear the way of human progress. The hate of men will pass, and dictators die, and the power they took from the people will return to the people. And so long as men die, liberty will never perish."

[scooterscot]

Reassuring the lessons of 2008 have been learnt. Folks are not back on a debt binge, nothing to see here... nope everyone is tightening their belts.

[TwoWolves]

Even ordinary people can see this, but what can we do? Our leaders seem insane, they behave as if there will be no tomorrow.

[scooterscot]

I guess ordinary folks can reduce exposure to stuff that is overbought & overvalued such as stocks & property. Perhaps even invest in precious metals. Gold rallied 4 years straight after 08 to more than double.

If salaries don't go up and folks are left with sky high mortgages after some correction there'll be many defaults, which will push prices down even further.

Giving serious thought to selling my Edinburgh place. A recent valuation put it at £450k for a 2-bed flat. That's insane. I could buy a converted farmhouse in Aachen for that.

[GreenMirror]

The question is not how mad things are. It is how much more mad it will go.

[scooterscot]

I hate to keep posting it but time and time again this chart of emotions proves true, whether individuals or institutional investors. As Bernard Baruch once said "Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news."

The Elliott wave structure is very clear here, 5-waves to the top. Looks like we're somewhere between greed & delusion at the minute. The market will not ignore a head & shoulders if a new all time high is formed, which I think is likely. In fact I don't think a Trump impeachment will cause a correction, it'll be something else.

[Hobosapien]

Normal folk should be 'fixing the roof while the sun is shining' such as paying down debt while it is still cheap in terms of interest charged and each payment has a bigger impact (not as much taken in interest).

Regarding the next stock market correction, I wonder if it may be something like a massively indebted company being unable to fulfil its plans that has shareholders re-evaluating the common approach these companies take of 'faking it until you make it' and effectively gambling with their investment that these companies will make it.

e.g. Tesla and Uber both massively in debt yet have a company paper value of over $50bln. Following Amazon and other tech companies that aim to build a dominant market position by massive debt that is intended to be paid off when the market share means they can put up prices to finally make a profit, as they have seen off the competition by effectively using investment money to operate at a loss for as long as it takes to bankrupt the competition or scare them out of the market. A reverse protection racket.

Similar to what we saw in the dot com crash when investors woke up that running pet food delivery services at a loss would never recoup the many millions invested and they would never be worth the $billion market cap forecast.

'Sentiment turns a market'.

[scooterscot]

The two biggest happenings that are currently happening with next to no attention:

1) National banks printing money and buying assets. Where are the alarm bells. We have to work and earn the printed money before buying the same assets. Where are the pitchforks?

2) Some of the largest holders of US debt, China, Japan, Ireland (rather surprised to learn that one), Brazil, are quietly unloading it. The weird part is who is buying it. Hundreds of billions going through an anonymous Cayman island bank account. US debt has been shuffled around the globe with complete transparency for the last 30 years. Why hide now? Rumour has it the US is buying. If that's true.. the US dollar would become extraordinarily vulnerable. Might even loose its reserve status.

[fiisch]

I hate to keep posting it but time and time again this chart of emotions proves true, whether individuals or institutional investors. As Bernard Baruch once said "Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news."

The Elliott wave structure is very clear here, 5-waves to the top. Looks like we're somewhere between greed & delusion at the minute. The market will not ignore a head & shoulders if a new all time high is formed, which I think is likely. In fact I don't think a Trump impeachment will cause a correction, it'll be something else.

I like this a lot.... But then if it is so cyclical, surely the smart money is to hold off until we reach despair, to "time the market" so to speak, yet everything I have read suggests this is a fool's game.

I'm currently investing (very) modest amounts on a monthly basis and waiting for the inevitable crash, before dumping a load of money in to try and time the market, going against every instinct to cut and run. I'm in my 30s and no immediate need for the money, so can wait out (several) bull markets - why isn't this obvious/easy/everyone doing it?

[northernladuk]

I like this a lot.... But then if it is so cyclical, surely the smart money is to hold off until we reach despair, to "time the market" so to speak, yet everything I have read suggests this is a fool's game.

I'm currently investing (very) modest amounts on a monthly basis and waiting for the inevitable crash, before dumping a load of money in to try and time the market, going against every instinct to cut and run. I'm in my 30s and no immediate need for the money, so can wait out (several) bull markets - why isn't this obvious/easy/everyone doing it?

Wouldn't it be worth putting even modest investments on hold until you've paid off your CT debts first?