stock market crash

[scooterscot]

My first stop is the monthly chart when considering long term. I'm willing to bet folks on here buying into the stock market do so once and forget about it for years.

Right now the monthly chart screams *sellers only*, no one is buying. Technically this is starting to look like a "L-shaped" recovery, the worst of them all given the length of time that must come to pass before an uptrend is realised.

The blue line I've drawn is there to identify resistance in market strength, I've got an alarm on it to notify me when broken. Worst case, it does not trigger until September 2024, when RSI is around 30 as it was in 2002 and 2009

Also think about the psychology of people right now. Everyone is expecting money to become tight, if you've got cash on you you're saving it not investing it.

[DealorNoDeal]

If they wanted Italy could bail themselves out (especially is the true value of Gold is realised, not spot market). The UK however... we have a magic tree.

Italy is the world's third-largest holder of gold reserves, behind the United States and Germany, with 2,451.8 tonnes as of last year, according to the World Gold Council. In 1976, 543 tonnes of gold bullion were used by the Bank of Italy as collateral for a loan from the German central bank.

2,451.8 tonnes sounds like a lot but I doubt it's anywhere near enough to bail out the country.

2,451.8 tonnes = 86m oz

86m oz * $1,600 = $138bn

[scooterscot]

Are those not the paper contract prices of spot gold used in that calculation?

I'm expecting inflation to go crazy in the coming months, at that time so will gold. Italy will be sitting pretty soon enough.

[DealorNoDeal]

I'm expecting inflation to go crazy in the coming months, at that time so will gold. Italy will be sitting pretty soon enough.

12 days ago you predicted gold would collapse to $700.

https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...ld#post2745997

[Paralytic]

Ok, own up, who bought the wrong Zoom stock?

Zoom Stock or ZM Stock? Confusion Continues for Potential Zoom Video Investors

[scooterscot]

12 days ago you predicted gold would collapse to $700.

https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...ld#post2745997

Yes spot gold. The paper contract stuff.

If you physically own it, hold it.

[TheGreenBastard]

Yes spot gold. The paper contract stuff.

If you physically own it, hold it.

So spot gold and physical gold value aren't correlated?

Is everyone going to renegade on spot gold contracts? (If this happens the value of gold will be the least of your worries).

[scooterscot]

So spot gold and physical gold value aren't correlated?

No, not correlated. More folks own spot gold than there is physical gold to honour the contract.

Also worth noting HSBC holds the majority of spot gold contracts. A bank that is on the verge of going belly up.

[d000hg]

My concern right now is the US. I am quite fearful that they are genuinely going to have a major catastrophe there due to lack of early action, though Donald seems to have back-tracked on his plans to re-open for Easter come hell or high water.

If the world's richest, most developed (or perceived) nation suffers in this way I could see an utter rout in the markets. We seem to have a bit of stabilisation recently but is a US-led collapse round the corner?

I am somewhat seriously considering liquidating all holdings for 6 months if there are any signs. Crazy?

[wantacontract]

My concern right now is the US. I am quite fearful that they are genuinely going to have a major catastrophe there due to lack of early action, though Donald seems to have back-tracked on his plans to re-open for Easter come hell or high water.

If the world's richest, most developed (or perceived) nation suffers in this way I could see an utter rout in the markets. We seem to have a bit of stabilisation recently but is a US-led collapse round the corner?

I am somewhat seriously considering liquidating all holdings for 6 months if there are any signs. Crazy?

I have just entered the market at 26k on shares.......