stock market crash

[Whorty]

Keep an eye on the futures if Monday seems far away.

ES00 | E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch

On this site : FTSE Futures - FTSE 100 Futures | FTSE 100 Futures Rates | UK Futures | Live Index these are their kwy indices for FTSE100 futures ....

FTSE 100 FUTURES : TECHNICAL RESISTANCE LEVEL
RESISTANCE 1 - R1 : RESISTANCE 2 - R2 : RESISTANCE 3 - R3
5,904.03 : 5,972.40 : 6,025.93

FTSE 100 FUTURES : TECHNICAL SUPPORT LEVEL
SUPPORT 1 S1 : SUPPORT 2 S2 : SUPPORT 3 - S3
5,782.13 : 5,728.60 : 5,660.23

Given this, why do you think that the FTSE100 could drop as low as 5400 when the futures index has the lowest technical support at 5660? Assuming your technical analysis is similar to theirs, what extra do you see that they don't?

[DealorNoDeal]

Yes my target has not changed. There's even the possibility to go below that.

Hey if it doesn't pay off, it doesn't. That'll be my first and last time playing with options and I'll just stick to spot, which is where the returns have all been made to date.

Wise decision.

If you want to short an index, you're probably better off with an inverse ETF where at least there's no time decay to contend with. I reckon something like this 3x would give you similar bang for your buck (leverage) as an option. They also do a 1x (SUK1).

http://companyresearch.digitallook.c...gi?csi=3709027

[scooterscot]

On this site : FTSE Futures - FTSE 100 Futures | FTSE 100 Futures Rates | UK Futures | Live Index these are their kwy indices for FTSE100 futures ....



Given this, why do you think that the FTSE100 could drop as low as 5400 when the futures index has the lowest technical support at 5660? Assuming your technical analysis is similar to theirs, what extra do you see that they don't?

I think it'll go to 4500 not 5400.

So many reasons for this think this way, easier to show in a chart. Monthly below. ~40% major corrections in the FTSE 100 are normal, previous events stopped at the golden ratio. When RSI on the monthly is less than 38 = there's never anything positive price action wise. Not in all its history.

The timing it is the near impossible part. I'd hoped for sooner. However this could be another year away I confess. In that scenario the UK is in a deep recession, depression even. No one wants that. However the government of the day seems to be doing everything in their power to get exactly that, I'm befuddled by it all.

Two outcomes:

1) Crash now and quickly, best option. Recovery begins sooner. And my Put pays off.

2) More stimulus to businesses that cannot survive the next business cycle. My Put goes up in smoke. Hey ho.

If option (2) - Gwd, we'll have no possibility of recovery until 2022 (the chart suggests this not me) with rotation around 2024/5.


If the BoE goes with negative interest rates, option (2) seems increasingly likely. And will only accelerate a period of deflation in housing, with rising unemployment.


I hate this. I really do. I don't like to see / want to see destitution. But sometimes change does not come without the negative... ask Greece.

[DealorNoDeal]

I think it'll go to 4500 not 5400...

The timing it is the near impossible part. I'd hoped for sooner. However this could be another year away I confess. In that scenario the UK is in a deep recession, depression even. No one wants that. However the government of the day seems to be doing everything in their power to get exactly that, I'm befuddled by it all.

If I had to bet, up or down, I'd definitely pick down. 4500 is certainly not outlandish.

If it's going to happen, I don't think it will be another year away. Between now and the end of November might throw up some surprises, so you might get lucky.

As Whorty said above, "interesting times".

[Paralytic]

(the chart suggests this not me)

I do wish you’d stop peddling this “it’s the chart saying this, not me” crap.

You are the person who is choosing where to draw the lines based on your pre-existing thoughts.

At least have the balls to own your predictions rather than the setting yourself up to blame the charting fairies if it goes wrong.

[scooterscot]

I do wish you’d stop peddling this “it’s the chart saying this, not me” crap.

You are the person who is choosing where to draw the lines based on your pre-existing thoughts.

At least have the balls to own your predictions rather than the setting yourself up to blame the charting fairies if it goes wrong.

I only examine the facts of the chart. Nothing more. Look left. If price action is making 'lower highs', that is a trend. The trend is more visible if you connect them with a line. The trend is powerful, it tells you a lot about the psychology of buyers and sellers around a certain point.

The chart tells you everything you need to know, one just needs to know how to read it. By all means refute those claims if you see otherwise in those charts I've published. If I were so biased I'd not have left the world of contracting to give investing a bash!

[BABABlackSheep]

He seems fine, FTSE going to open about 1% higher. US will follow, unless he relapses.

[Paralytic]

I only examine the facts of the chart. Nothing more. Look left. If price action is making 'lower highs', that is a trend. The trend is more visible if you connect them with a line. The trend is powerful, it tells you a lot about the psychology of buyers and sellers around a certain point.

The chart tells you everything you need to know, one just needs to know how to read it. By all means refute those claims if you see otherwise in those charts I've published. If I were so biased I'd not have left the world of contracting to give investing a bash!

I'm not refuting that connecting lower highs indicates a trend (that's kind of, duh, of course). But, YOU choose the where to connect the lines, how far back to go to find the trend, which particular low point over a period to choose, which ones to ignore.

It's not the chart, its you. You might be right, or you might be wrong, but its you, not the chart.

And as soon as you accept that, you'll soon realise that your existing thoughts could prejudice those selection-points to produce the result you want to show, especially for emotional investors like you.

I recall seeing the findings of two TA's on the same chart. One was bearish, one was bullish. Both said the chart was telling them what they presented, even when shown the other TA's workings.

The worrying thing is, one of them will have been right and was probably convinced it was the chart that predicted the future.

[scooterscot]

I'm not refuting that connecting lower highs indicates a trend (that's kind of, duh, of course). But, YOU choose the where to connect the lines, how far back to go to find the trend, which particular low point over a period to choose, which ones to ignore..

That's not true.

The connecting lines are always the ones with the most confluence. i.e. the ones candles interact the most with. That's basic of charting. Amazingly you can nearly always see this confluence even when a market was 1% of its current size when extending into history.

If there's a linechart I've published without this confluence that I'm only cheating myself and shall not profit from it. That is not in my interest. Always try to keep the charts as clean as possible.

Regarding bias, I've noticed that bias fades over time when there's less reason for you to be biased. And that bias only appeared in the first place because of the worry of not having enough money. Money is emotional, no arguing that.

[The Bona Fide]

CINE

Down 49.5% when I looked this morning.

(yes, I'm in...)