stock market crash

[Whorty]

7700, that's where the market was when I started the thread was it no?

And, as everyone keeps pointing out, the only reason the market is still not in the 7000's is because of a global pandemic and world governments locking down their countries - 2 things you did not see and hence your 'prediction' only happened via chance.

If we look at the S&P that is higher now than pre CV19, and much higher than when you started this thread.

Next

[scooterscot]

And, as everyone keeps pointing out, the only reason the market is still not in the 7000's is because of a global pandemic and world governments locking down their countries - 2 things you did not see and hence your 'prediction' only happened via chance.

If we look at the S&P that is higher now than pre CV19, and much higher than when you started this thread.

Next

Chance is one word. I prefer probability.

[BABABlackSheep]

Remember he only makes 5-6 trades a year though, and he’s not invested in equities, apart from a £250,000 PUT option on the FTSE 100 tanking.

Strange he’s getting excited about Nasdaq dropping 2% after a Stella year.

Cause they are all connected. Hope that alleviates the strange for you.

It’s a bitch when you get excited about a 2% Nasdaq drop, only for the market to bounce by the end of the week and end up higher.

Anyway, hows the FTSE crash coming along?

“Cause they are all connected“

[scooterscot]

I'm not caring about the %, I'm caring about the trend. Don't worry, it is not completed.

[Whorty]

I'm not caring about the %, I'm caring about the trend. Don't worry, it is not completed.

Since the initial drop (due to CV19) and slight recovery the trend of the FTSE100 has been flat, floating around 5800-6200.

So, if you're interested only in the trend, how come you keep trying to convince everyone that it's going to drop to 4500 when there is no evidence that this is the case?

The small % changes is where the profits are at the moment ..... that is unless you've bet big on the market dropping where, in that case, the (negative) profits are going to be huuuuuge

[scooterscot]

Since the initial drop (due to CV19) and slight recovery the trend of the FTSE100 has been flat, floating around 5800-6200.

So, if you're interested only in the trend, how come you keep trying to convince everyone that it's going to drop to 4500 when there is no evidence that this is the case?

The small % changes is where the profits are at the moment ..... that is unless you've bet big on the market dropping where, in that case, the (negative) profits are going to be huuuuuge

Oh I beg to differ.

A picture speaks a thousand words so they say, read em:







PS: The correction is nothing to do with Covid-19. It may have accelerated the matter, however it is not responsible for the macro trend I started this thread on. The underlying cause is the same as it was in 2008. DEBT.

[northernladuk]

A picture speaks a thousand words so they say, read em:
.

And those words aren't complete bollocks and 100% wrong..kinda like the opposite of yours.

That last paragraph you posted for example... Covid second wave is not responsible for recent market movements and you are comparing reasons for the movents to 2008??

[DealorNoDeal]

Looking at scoots' chart. If I had to choose between going long or short, I would choose short.

But I don't think I'd sleep very well at night if I stood to lose $250,000 in the event that it didn't tank within a few weeks. Talk about squeaky bum.

[Whorty]

Looking at scoots' chart. If I had to choose between going long or short, I would choose short.

But I don't think I'd sleep very well at night if I stood to lose $250,000 in the event that it didn't tank within a few weeks. Talk about squeaky bum.

If I was on a trading game then given where we are and what is happening in the world I'd probably go for a drop on FTSE rather than rise ... but it's a 70/30 to me that the market will drop a bit. I can't see it crashing although I can see it losing to maybe 5500, but, almost equally I can easily see it hanging around 6200 too. Everyone is waiting for a major external trigger to significantly move the markets again one way or the other.

What we also need to remember is, whilst there are some high profile companies struggling during the pandemic, there are also lots of companies who are doing very well during this period; not every company has their backs against the wall.

[scooterscot]

Looking at scoots' chart. If I had to choose between going long or short, I would choose short.

But I don't think I'd sleep very well at night if I stood to lose $250,000 in the event that it didn't tank within a few weeks. Talk about squeaky bum.

Have devoted a lot of hours to study. I'm satisfied the probability that I'm not wrong is high enough. If the dollar were to collapse, I'd close this trade for sure, losses to boot. But I'm expecting a dollar demand surge.