What happened to Global Warming?

[pjclarke]

The fascinating thing is how identical the weather forecasts are in 1997 to 2017, even the temperatures are identical.

Well quite. GW is currently happening at around 0.18C / decade. TV weather forecasts report in whole degrees.

[BlasterBates]

Well quite. GW is currently happening at around 0.18C / decade. TV weather forecasts report in whole degrees.

Indeed, I suppose that the 18 year pause may also be a contributory factor to no change in the weather forecasts.

[BrilloPad]

And I always thought climate and weather were different....

[BlasterBates]

And I always thought climate and weather were different....

That's right, the climate is changing but the weather is still the same as it was 20 years ago,

[BrilloPad]

That's right, the climate is changing but the weather is still the same as it was 20 years ago,

I distinctly remember 12th December 1997. It was alot warmer than this.

And CUK was just a glint in admin's eye.....

[d000hg]

I seem to remember a prediction in year 2000 that the UK will not have snow after 2010 and a BBC program about the UK having a Mediterranean climate by 2012

Lots of scientific theories turned out to be correct despite early versions having predictions which turned out to be false. Early CC/GW theories were pretty sensational - not to mention that a lot of these so called 'claims' were deliberately sensationalised by the media to get headlines.

I'm dubious about a lot of the claims but on the other hand... one day of snow is now headline news. Doesn't that imply it's not happening as often? Even in the north, snow is a relative rarity... my wife's Reception kids had in some cases never seen heavy snow before last week!

[FrontEnder]

Lots of scientific theories turned out to be correct despite early versions having predictions which turned out to be false. Early CC/GW theories were pretty sensational - not to mention that a lot of these so called 'claims' were deliberately sensationalised by the media to get headlines.

I'm dubious about a lot of the claims but on the other hand... one day of snow is now headline news. Doesn't that imply it's not happening as often? Even in the north, snow is a relative rarity... my wife's Reception kids had in some cases never seen heavy snow before last week!

No, it just shows we've had relatively mild winters the last few years. Before that we had really heavy snow for several years on the bounce.

I'm no "denier" of global warming - we probably have contributed to a slight warming due to increased CO2 concentrations, but there's no real evidence that this is happening at some sort of catastrophic rate.

[pjclarke]

Counterintuitively, the effect of GW on the Arctic ice cover may cause more snow in Europe and N. America..

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22371563

[d000hg]

No, it just shows we've had relatively mild winters the last few years. Before that we had really heavy snow for several years on the bounce.

I'm no "denier" of global warming - we probably have contributed to a slight warming due to increased CO2 concentrations, but there's no real evidence that this is happening at some sort of catastrophic rate.

At what does "a few" become significant? I can recall only one heavy snowfall in my early childhood (1986/7 probably) and in my entire life only once where we had snow sitting on the ground for a week or more (around 2010 IIRC). I spent 10 years in Cornwall which meant I had no idea how much snow there was for that period though But I've lived in the north 17 years as an adult (legally).

[FrontEnder]

At what does "a few" become significant? I can recall only one heavy snowfall in my early childhood (1986/7 probably) and in my entire life only once where we had snow sitting on the ground for a week or more (around 2010 IIRC). I spent 10 years in Cornwall which meant I had no idea how much snow there was for that period though But I've lived in the north 17 years as an adult (legally).

Never. Local variations in weather paterns are not an indication of long term global climate trends. And neither are pithy anecdotes about how much snow there was when you were a kid.