"I can still be Prime Minister. This is still on. Absolutely"

[BlasterBates]

All other potential Tory leader candidates less popular than May



They may have to look to Nigel Farage, a true Bexiteer.

[jamesbrown]

It isn't the Hard Brexiteers who will bring down the government it will be the "Remoaners", in particular Ruth Davis and her 13 Conservative MPs, they're almost a separate party now doing their own thing and have nothing to fear from UKIP.

Hard Brexit would then only be possible if the Tories then subsequently got a stonking gr8 majority that would mean the Scottish Conservatives are irrelevant. Is that likely?

I would say, probably not as young people now have learnt to go out and vote. A second election will probably return a minority Labour government propped up by the SNP and Lib-Dems, and you know what that means.

Again, you're missing the point. The default position is now "out", with the only variable being the date of departure, based on a formal request being made to, and unanimously accepted by, the EU27 for a one year delay. In that context, any failure within Parliament to reach an agreed position will result in a chaotic exit. For an EEA-style arrangement to make it through Parliament, the gov't would need to fail (because backbenchers will definitely not accept that, as we've heard from Raab and others today) and a party would need to stand on that manifesto (i.e. free movement) and receive a stonking majority. I would say that, given old people have always know how to vote, the Lib Dem strategy isn't likely to win a majority any time soon. A car crash is now the default outcome unless, in 6-12 months, Labour has lost "momentum" (quite likely, as Korbyn is terrible in Parliament) and the Tories are sufficiently confident to boot Maybot and choose a Brexit-supporting leader who drops the austerity narrative and focuses a little more on younger voters. But it will need to be in 6-12 months, because the Tories would lose an election right now (as in, another Hung Parliament), even with a change in narrative. In 6-12 months, it's still highly doubtful, because voters hate a divided party, and I don't see the Tories remaining as one. At the same time, the arithmetic of FPP makes it's incredibly difficult for Labour to win an outright majority. Basically, we've entered a protracted car crash.

[AtW]

"Home Secretary Amber Rudd would attract just 13 per cent and revile 26 per cent, while Philip Hammond attracts 15 per cent of voters and repulses 23 per cent."

[AtW]

Again, you're missing the point. The default position is now "out", with the only variable being the date of departure, based on a formal request being made to, and unanimously accepted by, the EU27 for a one year delay. In that context, any failure within Parliament to reach an agreed position will result in a chaotic exit. For an EEA-style arrangement to make it through Parliament, the gov't would need to fail (because backbenchers will definitely not accept that, as we've heard from Raab and others today) and a party would need to stand on that manifesto (i.e. free movement) and receive a stonking majority. I would say that, given old people have always know how to vote, the Lib Dem strategy isn't likely to win a majority any time soon. A car crash is now the default outcome unless, in 6-12 months, Labour has lost "momentum" (quite likely, as Korbyn is terrible in Parliament) and the Tories are sufficiently confident to boot Maybot and choose a Brexit-supporting leader who drops the austerity narrative and focuses a little more on younger voters. But it will need to be in 6-12 months, because the Tories would lose an election right now (as in, another Hung Parliament), even with a change in narrative. In 6-12 months, it's still highly doubtful, because voters hate a divided party, and I don't see the Tories remaining as one. At the same time, the arithmetic of FPP makes it's incredibly difficult for Labour to win an outright majority. Basically, we've entered a protracted car crash.

What's your projection for Sterling then?

[jamesbrown]

"Home Secretary Amber Rudd would attract just 13 per cent and revile 26 per cent, while Philip Hammond attracts 15 per cent of voters and repulses 23 per cent."

Post-election polling can be dismissed more than regular polling. If you look at post election polls, historically, they always swing to the actual outcome (confirmation bias). They're basically useless as a projection of future sentiment.

[scooterscot]

At the next GE, all the Tories need to do is to offer every 18-year-old school leaver, a one-off no strings attached payment of £10k tax free.

And because the Tories are true to their word without u-turns there'll be no reason to doubt any of their promises.

[BlasterBates]

Again, you're missing the point. The default position is now "out", .

If there is no progress in the negotiations and the government refuses to budge, the Labour party will simply bring a vote of no confidence in the government and the pro-European Conservatives will abstain.

[jamesbrown]

What's your projection for Sterling then?

If I had one, you'd probably do well to assume the opposite, based on my recent record

It has been surprisingly resilient; 1.2 on Cable is a line in the sand now, and it would need to be chaos to cross this (an assumed hard Brexit wasn't enough). It's probably range-bound, 1.25-1.3, until things become clearer. The markets will likely perceive an increased chance of both a soft Brexit and a car-crash. It will swing in the wind depending on the chaos of the day. If Maybot is having a hard day, Cable will too. Other than that, it also depends on the Fed next week (probably rise, but they may bottle it). Eurodollar looks like a pretty decent bet in the short/medium term (long-term, not so much ).

[jamesbrown]

If there is no progress in the negotiations and the government refuses to budge, the Labour party will simply bring a vote of no confidence in the government and the pro-European Conservatives will abstain.

Right, and what happens next? Korbyn doesn't have the numbers for a progressive alliance. Another GE.

[BlasterBates]

Right, and what happens next? Korbyn doesn't have the numbers for a progressive alliance. Another GE.

Yes of course it would mean he would spend a short time as PM to organise a GE as happened in the 1970's.

It is in any case highly likely there will be a GE in the next 12 months, regardless of whether a confidence motion will be proposed.



This will be repeated until there is a government with a firm majority or a formal coalition.