Scottish Referendum Part 2 - Electric Boogaloo

[jamesbrown]

Doesn't everywhere other than London operate at a net 'loss' and get subsidy from central government?

Sure, but they're mostly not looking for independence

[jamesbrown]

No more weaker than they are for the rUK which borrows billions every year from international lenders. The UK cannot afford to be an independent country.

Ah, but the UK can borrow at sensible rates because we're seen as relatively safe. These costs would likely rise following independence, but they would rise most for Scotland. I agree that rUK also has structural problems, but that doesn't change the relatively (much) worse position of Scotland. If you want independence, fine, but you'll need to explain and own the economic consequences (as do those of us who voted for Brexit), and the current strategy of the SNP appears to involve covering their ears and pretending they can't hear us . Also, how are the SNP going to fill 90% of their annual conference when the English grievance is gone?

[BlasterBates]

I'd have a lot of sympathy for Scotland (not so much the SNP) if they chose independence. However, the economic arguments are weak. There's no skirting the enormous deficit and transfer of wealth from England (London) to Scotland. This supports a much higher standard of public services in Scotland than would otherwise be possible. The block grant is far more generous than the tax revenues Scotland could generate for itself. Sure, the Scottish government could adopt different policies, but structural changes of that magnitude would take years, perhaps decades. No, the arguments for independence may be reasoned, but Scotland will need full sight of the economic pain coming their way. For Scotland, the economic risks are on a completely different scale than the UK leaving the EU. They would be absolutely hammered in the financial markets and they have no hope of meeting the criteria for joining the Euro. They would need a leap of faith on a political settlement with the EU, should membership become their objective, because the EU would not (and cannot) agree a compromise upfront. Alternatively, reliance upon Sterling (and hence the BoE) would embed massive structural imbalances at precisely the time when Scotland would need flexibility. It would be damaging for the rUK, no doubt, but devastating for Scotland.

You have to see Scottish independence within the context of the UK economy turning to "poo".

[LondonManc]

Ah, but the UK can borrow at sensible rates because we're seen as relatively safe. These costs would likely rise following independence, but they would rise most for Scotland. I agree that rUK also has structural problems, but that doesn't change the relatively (much) worse position of Scotland. If you want independence, fine, but you'll need to explain and own the economic consequences (as do those of us who voted for Brexit), and the current strategy of the SNP appears to involve covering their ears and pretending they can't hear us . Also, how are the SNP going to fill 90% of their annual conference when the English grievance is gone?

In Q3 2016, there were over 542,000 Scots working in the Public Sector, against an estimated population of 5.4 million. Total public sector for the UK was 5.4 million against an estimated population of 66 million.

Genuine question for scooter, blaster, etc - how many public sector jobs do you think Scotland would have post Scexit?

[BlasterBates]

In Q3 2016, there were over 542,000 Scots working in the Public Sector, against an estimated population of 5.4 million. Total public sector for the UK was 5.4 million against an estimated population of 66 million.

Genuine question for scooter, blaster, etc - how many public sector jobs do you think Scotland would have post Scexit?

It will have less but due to the demographics i.e. an ageing population and far more Scots leaving the workforce than joining it, not a big problem. The reduction can easily be done through "natural wastage". In many respects, i.e. rising oil prices, the rUK turning to "poo" and the ageing workforce, it is the perfect time for independence.

[scooterscot]

Ah, but the UK can borrow at sensible rates because we're seen as relatively safe. These costs would likely rise following independence, but they would rise most for Scotland. I agree that rUK also has structural problems, but that doesn't change the relatively (much) worse position of Scotland.

Your argument precludes countries such as Iceland, Norway, Sweden, in fact all small countries, should not exist. It's ludicrous. The current economics of Scotland cannot exist as an independent nation because it is trying to act as if something bigger, just like the UK. No one is arguing they should.

Scotland has far too many public services for such a small country that were bestowed upon us for many years. Many of which service the country as a whole (and would probably continue to do so after independence because lets face it who can understand a Indian accent over the phone?).

Scotland needs to become independent to prevent decades of Tory shafting or even worse Labour spending to buy voters.

[chopper]

i.e. an ageing population and far more Scots leaving the workforce than joining it, not a big problem.

You don't see a problem with a rising population of pensioners, and a shrinking population of people working to pay taxes to give said rising pensioner population an actual pension? Or indeed any of the other stuff that many pensioners need, e.g. social care, increasing demand on the health service?

[jamesbrown]

You have to see Scottish independence within the context of the UK economy turning to "poo".

If someone poos on the carpet do you: a) clear it up; or b) spread it around everywhere? The SNP has a right to spread the poo if they can convince the owner it's in their best interests. However, I don't fancy their chances.

[jamesbrown]

Your argument precludes countries such as Iceland, Norway, Sweden, in fact all small countries, should not exist. It's ludicrous. The current economics of Scotland cannot exist as an independent nation because it is trying to act as if something bigger, just like the UK. No one is arguing they should.

Scotland has far too many public services for such a small country that were bestowed upon us for many years. Many of which service the country as a whole (and would probably continue to do so after independence because lets face it who can understand a Indian accent over the phone?).

Scotland needs to become independent to prevent decades of Tory shafting or even worse Labour spending to buy voters.

I simply take the facts as they come. Here's a trick question for you: what countries in Europe would have a larger deficit than an independent Scotland? If you're ready for a monumental fiscal consolidation, I wish you all the best. My guess is that the SNP won't be arguing for that position, but the voters will understand that as the choice on offer. IMHO, this is the beginning of the end of the SNP.

[scooterscot]

In Q3 2016, there were over 542,000 Scots working in the Public Sector, against an estimated population of 5.4 million. Total public sector for the UK was 5.4 million against an estimated population of 66 million.

Genuine question for scooter, blaster, etc - how many public sector jobs do you think Scotland would have post Scexit?

41

Aye danne ken Scotland's population increased that much. Public sector jobs slashed and then some post independence, a number of them service the country as a whole, which likely continue. If anything the public sector has increased under the Tories during their so called Austerity.