Commerzbank: City fears Brexit disaster

[jamesbrown]

Their hopes of softening EU up are totally misplaced - in fact, I think they lost any hope but don't want to admit it to UK public.

So, what she wants to do now is pull out regardless of consequences to prevent Brexit being stopped at a later date - that's her (and other "hard Brexiters" overriding objective).

I'd say, as a matter of principle EU won't sign up any deals with her at all, other than maybe something to do with anti-terrorist cooperation but that's it.

I think that's a reasonable point of disagreement. I'm just interpreting her position, not saying whether it will be successful as a negotiating stance. Indeed, if you look at how the EU has operated, they're frequently willing to self-implode. But politics can change quickly, and there is some sense in what she's doing. Among other things, she's hoping that the facade of consensus will crack when Putin and Trump declare their undying love and NATO and security edge their way up the agenda.

[AtW]

Among other things, she's hoping that the facade of consensus will crack when Putin and Trump declare their undying love and NATO and security edge their way up the agenda.

That would pave way for the EU Army.

I have no doubt that May would gamble the farm (that isn't hers) just like Camoron did - this will all end in tears.

[LondonManc]

That would pave way for the EU Army.

I have no doubt that May would gamble the farm (that isn't hers) just like Camoron did - this will all end in tears.

Given Brown and Blair already raped the farm, who cares?

[jamesbrown]

That would pave way for the EU Army.

I have no doubt that May would gamble the farm (that isn't hers) just like Camoron did - this will all end in tears.

It might not. But the EU is going to end in tears, anyway (starting with the Eurozone). There's zero chance it will weather another crisis.

[AtW]

Given Brown and Blair already raped the farm, who cares?

You are so rude!

Could not you just say that Brown and Bliar gave the farm all the love they could?

At least they did not sell it!

[AtW]

It might not. But the EU is going to end in tears, anyway (starting with the Eurozone). There's zero chance it will weather another crisis.

100% chance they would do fine because they can print at will what is now only 2nd world RESERVE currency. Just like USA they will get away with it, UK on the other side...

[vetran]

May won't give up, instead she will sacrifice UK economy to prolong her own political survival - she put that before the country.

Oh she is going to a Gideon, Gordon or a Norman what a shock?

[BlasterBates]

Obviously, we disagree about what is going to happen when the EU says "non", with you being of the opinion that May will capitulate and beg for EEA w/ ECJ, free movement and massive budget contributions and fall on her sword with the electorate. I think she won't But it seems as though we disagree on her starting position too. You'll need to do better than "Nissan", given the consistency in what she's been saying for several months. The bottom line is that Nissan didn't need convincing. They made a risk-based commitment of 5-10 years and iced it with some crying/whining/foot stomping for show. Their decision was never in doubt. Business always trumps politics, and if business goes downhill, as you believe, they won't stick around forever. My guess is that they'll be around for some time.

The government won't willingly go in for a transitional deal, it will be "frog marched" into it, by economic reality.

[AtW]

The most amusing thing would be to watch income tax (including NICs) fall once highly paid City jobs get moved to countries with more sensible, stable Govts - budget is very heavily depends on taxes taken from the "wealthy", somebody will have to make up for the loss of revenue.

[AtW]

The government won't willingly go in for a transitional deal, it will be "frog marched" into it, by economic reality.

What transitional deal?

They will have 2 years to negotiate and will fail in all key objectives, EU will only survive if they make example of UK - that means no transitional deals (acceptable to May that is), it will be tulipy WTO rules.