Commerzbank: City fears Brexit disaster

[darmstadt]

We have just done something about it. We voted to get out of Tulipeville.

Yup, you flushed the chain and now you're down in the sewers...

[AtW]

Yup, you flushed the chain and now you're down in the sewers...

Maybe that's where he belongs, which is why he is so happy, but why take everybody else with him???

[scooterscot]

Even though the US President-elect has already signalled an interest in closer ties with its former colonial masters which may well cushion the economic impact of the decision for the UK, what Larry Summers said in his interview about the US also applies to the UK: “if our strategy is to trade only with people that speak English that’s going to be a poor strategy”.

Vielleicht sollte sie etwas Deutsch lernen!

[jamesbrown]

May sh*tting bricks

It's bloody obvious what May wants, and it has been for some time. She wants to get out of everything first, and then selectively negotiate her way back into specific aspects, while being outside of the scope of the ECJ (i.e. a new bilateral court of arbitration). This is why she keeps banging on about not recognising "hard" or "soft" Brexit, because she honestly believes that the "control" aspect outside of the ECJ is separate from the economic arguments for free trade. She may be wrong on that, but she has form on this way of thinking from the Home Office and she's highly consistent in her methodology (as are those advising her).

Those aspects of the media and continuity Bremain that keep banging on about lack of clarity know quite well the broad direction of travel, and they don't like it. It's been clear since at least the Tory Conference speech, but really before that. May honestly believes that she can get out of everything and then re-negotiate her way back into a comprehensive FTA for goods and services with bolt-on options for the CU and other aspects in specific sectors (the latter would come into place immediately, as a "transition" arrangement). The markets are betting that politics will trump economics and they could be right with the EU, which is why Sterling, for example, completely ignored these "clarifications" this morning. She really has been saying the same thing for some time now. Some people don't want to listen.

[BlasterBates]

It's bloody obvious what May wants, and it has been for some time. She wants to get out of everything first, and then selectively negotiate her way back into specific aspects, while being outside of the scope of the ECJ (i.e. a new bilateral court of arbitration). This is why she keeps banging on about not recognising "hard" or "soft" Brexit, because she honestly believes that the "control" aspect outside of the ECJ is separate from the economic arguments for free trade. She may be wrong on that, but she has form on this way of thinking from the Home Office and she's highly consistent in her methodology (as are those advising her).

Those aspects of the media and continuity Bremain that keep banging on about lack of clarity know quite well the broad direction of travel, and they don't like it. It's been clear since at least the Tory Conference speech, but really before that. May honestly believes that she can get out of everything and then re-negotiate her way back into a comprehensive FTA for goods and services with bolt-on options for the CU and other aspects in specific sectors (the latter would come into place immediately, as a "transition" arrangement). The markets are betting that politics will trump economics and they could be right with the EU, which is why Sterling, for example, completely ignored these "clarifications" this morning. She really has been saying the same thing for some time now. Some people don't want to listen.

...and what did she promise Nissan....

I rest my case.

watch out for the "transitional deal"

[PurpleGorilla]

Lichtenstein has access to the single market and an opt out of FOM.

[jamesbrown]

...and what did she promise Nissan....

I rest my case.

watch out for the "transitional deal"

Obviously, we disagree about what is going to happen when the EU says "non", with you being of the opinion that May will capitulate and beg for EEA w/ ECJ, free movement and massive budget contributions and fall on her sword with the electorate. I think she won't But it seems as though we disagree on her starting position too. You'll need to do better than "Nissan", given the consistency in what she's been saying for several months. The bottom line is that Nissan didn't need convincing. They made a risk-based commitment of 5-10 years and iced it with some crying/whining/foot stomping for show. Their decision was never in doubt. Business always trumps politics, and if business goes downhill, as you believe, they won't stick around forever. My guess is that they'll be around for some time.

[AtW]

May honestly believes that she can get out of everything and then re-negotiate her way back into a comprehensive FTA for goods and services with bolt-on options for the CU and other aspects in specific sectors (the latter would come into place immediately, as a "transition" arrangement).

Their hopes of softening EU up are totally misplaced - in fact, I think they lost any hope but don't want to admit it to UK public.

So, what she wants to do now is pull out regardless of consequences to prevent Brexit being stopped at a later date - that's her (and other "hard Brexiters" overriding objective).

I'd say, as a matter of principle EU won't sign up any deals with her at all, other than maybe something to do with anti-terrorist cooperation but that's it.

[AtW]

May will capitulate and beg for EEA w/ ECJ, free movement and massive budget contributions and fall on her sword with the electorate.

May won't give up, instead she will sacrifice UK economy to prolong her own political survival - she put that before the country.

[AtW]

Lichtenstein has access to the single market and an opt out of FOM.

Liechtenstein got area of 62 sq miles.

Greater London is 607 sq miles.

UK - 93,628 sq miles.

Liechtenstein is mainly used to launder dirty money, where in UK there is a whole service support sector for laundering dirty money.

HTH