Article 50 won't be triggered this year under Gove

[OwlHoot]

I see more hope than reason in your post.
I'm talking about markets and businesses not liking uncertainty and forcing the invocation of Article 50.
It's not something the politicians can delay indefinitely.
There was an editorial by a CBI guy in the Times about this yesterday - he said essentially he was a Remainer, but what is done is done and lets get on with it, as every day there's uncertainty, the economy is damaged.

Must say, there's something in that.

My main concern with delaying invoking this Article 50 is that a new Tory leader, with the collusion of parliament, will try and weasel out of ever doing it.

Let's not forget that the favourite (?) to succeed Cameron, Theresa May or May Not, campaigned for Remain!

[CretinWatcher]

As Harold Macmillan once pithily said, what does a politician most fear?

"Events, dear boy, events".

And in this scenario, at this time in history, we are not in control of economic events.

[jamesbrown]

Yes wish I could live in La La land, too.

Along with Lucid Thought Land, Humility Land,...

[jamesbrown]

My main concern with delaying invoking this Article 50 is that a new Tory leader, with the collusion of parliament, will try and weasel out of ever doing it.

That's a separate point (with which I agree). However, if they really want to do this, they will. The consequences will be severe for their future electoral success, but Parliament is ultimately sovereign (in degree).

Putting aside the trust issue, and focusing on the substance of the countervailing arguments, I haven't heard anyone with detailed knowledge of these matters argue for a swift invocation of Article 50. Several business leaders are arguing for a swift conclusion (reduction in uncertainty), while conflating this with Article 50. In practice, invoking Article 50 will not substantially reduce the uncertainty about our trade arrangements because Article 50 isn't about trade agreements. More importantly, the timing is undeniably are bargaining chip. It's worth watching recent evidence sessions to the Treasury Select Committee on this.

[SueEllen]

You cannot start a negotiation until you know what you want to get out of it. Until you know your "Red-Lines". And have your team in place.

There's zero point starting it now as the UK has none of those in place. Starting when you are not ready is stupid.

Juncker et al can moan and belly-ache as much as they like. But they cannot force the UK to start the process. Juncker is a supposed drunk and seems to be bringing the wrath of other European countries onto himself. Hanging for a bit longer is likely to put more pressure on him. It would be handy if Merkel sacked him before the start of the negotiations.
<snip>

Merkel can't sack Juncker --- but you already know that as you know how the EU works.

Plus she may not be Chancellor next year as there are German elections in October.

[tomtomagain]

One thing that could play into this in the short term is the re-run of the Austrian presidential election.

For those who've missed it whilst we've been caught up in our own news .... The Austrians nearly elected a far-right president ( he lost by some 30k votes ).

The far-right guy was ahead in the "real" voting. But lost the postal votes. Turned out that a lot of them were fraudulent ( who'd have thought, postal voting, open to abuse? ) and the result was quashed.

So they are re-running it on October 2nd. He has strong anti-migration views.

Then we have the French and their travails with Mlle Le Penn. She's calling for a Frexit ( and if that happens, the whole thing is shot ). She's doing well in the polls.

Very interesting to see how Brexit impacts on those elections.

And finally we have The Trump. If he is a triumphant Trump on November 9th then whole Brexit thing could look like a mere side-show. He's got some interesting views on whether US taxpayers should continue to fund the defence of Europe.

So "Events, my dear boy, events". But who's events? And who's going to be able to respond the best?

One thing that you can say, is that the UK does form stable, strong governments that can push through decisions quickly. Not so sure you can say that about the EU.

[tomtomagain]

Merkel can't sack Juncker --- but you already know that as you know how the EU works.

Plus she may not be Chancellor next year as there are German elections in October.

I used "Sacked" as a short-hand for "Uses her power and influence to push him out of his post".

German election : No next to nothing about German politics. Does she have any serious rivals?

[Mordac]

I used "Sacked" as a short-hand for "Uses her power and influence to push him out of his post".

German election : No next to nothing about German politics. Does she have any serious rivals?

Not sure about serious rivals, but if this poll is to (and others are to) be believed as many as two thirds want shot of her.
Two-thirds of Germans want Merkel out at next election - The Local

Wonder if the migrant crisis might have something to do with that...

[tomtomagain]

I wonder how much Farage can charge per day as a consultant to Europe's far-right parties?

[SueEllen]

I wonder how much Farage can charge per day as a consultant to Europe's far-right parties?

He would get more than Tony Blair.