Article 50 won't be triggered this year under Gove

[Bee]

Technically he has the authority, but he's already said he won't, having previously indicated he would (honour the outcome of the referendum). Only it didn't go quite to plan, so it was toys-out-of-the-pram time and he ran off with the ball.

That's why I used the term "swallow the frog".

[CretinWatcher]

In terms of triggering Article 50 quickly, that would be stupid. Aside from the consolidation and planning that we need to engage with, it's one of our few bargaining chips. If the Gov't are willing to bargain with EU citizens living in the UK, they'll most assuredly be willing to use this as a bargaining chip. That the EU institutions are whining so much about us invoking it quickly is evidence of this leverage. They have other mechanisms to encourage us (e.g. the French talking about Euro clearing), but we have these too (e.g. Gidiot talking about the UK becoming a tax haven), but that isn't going to end well, and the nuclear option (Article 7) isn't remotely plausible.

I don't think the EU will need "mechanisms to encourage us", the markets will force our hand well before we're ready

[tomtomagain]

But you must remember Cameron is a pathetic coward, and no doubt still hopes he can somehow engineer things to prevent Brexit happening.

You cannot start a negotiation until you know what you want to get out of it. Until you know your "Red-Lines". And have your team in place.

There's zero point starting it now as the UK has none of those in place. Starting when you are not ready is stupid.

Juncker et al can moan and belly-ache as much as they like. But they cannot force the UK to start the process. Juncker is a supposed drunk and seems to be bringing the wrath of other European countries onto himself. Hanging for a bit longer is likely to put more pressure on him. It would be handy if Merkel sacked him before the start of the negotiations.

Nothing will happen until PM T. May is in office. And my guessing is that it wont start until after the French General Election.

Personally I wouldn't start it until I had some trade-agreements lined up with some other countries ( Australia, New Zealand for example ) .

Why would you want to give up your timing-advantage?

[jamesbrown]

I don't think the EU will need "mechanisms to encourage us", the markets will force our hand well before we're ready

Market reaction has feck all to do with Article 50 as an administrative procedure and everything to do with the substance of the positions being negotiated. Again, I don't think many of you realise the narrowness of the Article 50 process. It has bugger all to do with trade deals.

Once May is elected, I think you'll see some of the rhetoric about pre-talk talking subside. Afterall, there's nothing the EU institutions like more than a pre-talk talk, especially when the questions are existential ones for them

[CretinWatcher]

o be bringing the wrath of other European countries onto himself. Hanging for a bit longer is likely to puYou cannot start a negotiation until you know what you want to get out of it. Until you know your "Red-Lines". And have your team in place.

There's zero point starting it now as the UKas they like. But they cannot force the UK to start the process. Juncker is a supposed drunk and seems tt more pressur has none of those in place. Starting when you are not ready is stupid.

Juncker et al can moan and belly-ache as much e on him. It would be handy if Merkel sacked him before the start of the negotiations.

Nothing will happen until PM T. May is in office. And

Personally I wouldn't start it until I had some trade-agreements lined up with some other countries ( Australia, New Zealand for example ) .

Why would you want to give up your timing-advantage?

No offence but that's bollux.

You have no clue about:

1. how real life economics (more precisely FDI falling off a cliff and the current account deficit rising sharply) will create increasing pressure on the UK for certainty one way or another
2. how long it takes to negotiate trade deals with other countries - its usual 5-10 years if you're lucky.

HTH, BIKIW.

[CretinWatcher]

Market reaction has feck all to do with Article 50 as an administrative procedure and everything to do with the substance of the positions being negotiated. Again, I don't think many of you realise the narrowness of the Article 50 process. It has bugger all to do with trade deals.

Once May is elected, I think you'll see some of the rhetoric about pre-talk talking subside. Afterall, there's nothing the EU institutions like more than a pre-talk talk, especially when the questions are existential ones for them

I see more hope than reason in your post.
I'm talking about markets and businesses not liking uncertainty and forcing the invocation of Article 50.
It's not something the politicians can delay indefinitely.
There was an editorial by a CBI guy in the Times about this yesterday - he said essentially he was a Remainer, but what is done is done and lets get on with it, as every day there's uncertainty, the economy is damaged.

[jamesbrown]

I see more hope than reason in your post.

Welcome to my world, SasCretin

[tomtomagain]

No offence but that's bollux.

Well that's your opinion. We'll see how it pans out.

It's also your usual snide, nasty tone. No change there.

CretinWatcher : What you do when you look in the mirror.

[CretinWatcher]

Well that's your opinion. We'll see how it pans out.

It's also your usual snide, nasty tone. No change there.

CretinWatcher : What you do when you look in the mirror.

I apologise I should have been more polite in pointing out reality to you.

[CretinWatcher]

Welcome to my world, SasCretin

Yes wish I could live in La La land, too.