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The Official "There will be no Brexit" Thread

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    #21
    Originally posted by CretinWatcher View Post
    I'm no lawyer but this suggests you're wrong:

    https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016...pensable-role/
    Very good find. Worth quoting the last sections:

    (iv) The Role of Parliament

    It might be thought that this gives rise to something of a constitutional chicken and egg dilemma: how can Parliament legislate to take the UK out of the EU before the exit negotiations are complete? There is in fact a straightforward answer to this apparent conundrum. Before an Article 50 declaration can be issued, Parliament must enact a statute empowering or requiring the Prime Minister to issue notice under Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, and empowering the Government to make such changes to statutes as are necessary to bring about our exit from the European Union.

    Is this a mere formality? The political reality might be “yes”. Parliament might consider that following the referendum it must pass a statute in these terms. But the answer in constitutional terms is “no”. As a matter of constitutional law, Parliament is not bound to follow the results of the Brexit referendum when deliberating this legislation. A number of options are constitutionally open to Parliament.

    First, it could decide not to grant this power at all. As some of the core claims made by the leave campaign unravel, Parliament might decide that the case for Brexit has not been made – or was gained under a false prospectus. As Edmund Burke taught us, ours is a representative, not a direct, democracy. Those representatives whose consciences required them to reject the referendum vote would have to justify themselves to their electorates at the next General Election – an event that is likely to arrive quite soon. We should make clear that we take no position as to whether Parliament should adopt such a course, but it is undoubtedly open to Parliament as a matter of constitutional law. Parliament is, after all, sovereign.

    Secondly, Parliament could conclude that it would be contrary to the national interest to invoke Article 50 whilst it is in the dark about what the key essentials of the new relationship with the EU are going to be, and without knowing what terms the EU is going to offer. Parliament might well conclude that to require the Government to issue the notice immediately would be contrary to the national interest, even if Parliament is committed to leaving the EU, because the legal structure of Article 50 would place the UK at a seriously disadvantageous position in negotiating acceptable terms. Surely, Parliament is unlikely to require the Government to issue notice under Article 50 if it considers that the Government might be forced to accept exit terms which do not protect key aspects of our economy. Parliament may therefore require the Government to engage in extensive informal negotiations or even to seek to negotiate exit from the UK by formal Treaty amendments rather than through the Article 50 process.

    If the UK seeks to obtain some form of framework agreement on key terms before invoking Article 50, once these terms are in place, Parliament could then trigger the Article 50 procedure to effect exit, perhaps with only details left to negotiate by the Government. Immediately upon an agreement being finalised the UK would no longer be part of the EU. This option would comply with the outcome of the referendum.

    Finally, of course, Parliament could decide to authorize notice under Article 50 at once by empowering the Prime Minister to issue the declaration.

    There are very good reasons for involving Parliament. With its broad range of representatives and peers, various pertinent committees with extensive evidence gathering powers, it is an institution that has the expertise and legitimacy to discuss the implications of various withdrawal options and any framework conditions or further approvals that Parliament may want to stipulate. The referendum was silent on the terms of withdrawal. Such terms should be matters for cross-party discussion in open Parliament rather than among the front bench of a (divided) single party in closed Cabinet meetings.

    Conclusion

    Far from being a straightforward and streamlined process of exit, the Article 50 process raises very complicated legal and political issues and is pregnant with risk (additional to those inherent in existing outside the EU). These complexities are compounded by the murky ambiguities of our unwritten constitution.

    The referendum result itself does not speak to the question of how the UK should leave the EU. It is up to the Government and to Parliament to ensure that the exit is managed consistently with the UK’s national interest.

    Our analysis leads to the possibility that the process of extraction from the EU could be a very long one indeed, potentially even taking many years to come about. Of course, the EU Member States have made clear that they will only negotiate once the Article 50 exit provisions have been triggered and are pressing the UK to pull the trigger “as soon as possible”. It is also clear that uncertainty is itself undesirable. But uncertainty needs to be weighed against other imperatives, such as the need to comply with the UK’s constitutional requirements and the need to ensure that Brexit is effected consistently with the national interest. A quick pull of the Article 50 trigger is unlikely to be feasible under the UK’s constitutional arrangements and may well not be desirable for any UK Government or Parliament, even one committed to eventual withdrawal from the EU.

    Brexit is the most important decision that has faced the United Kingdom in a generation and it has massive constitutional and economic ramifications. In our constitution, Parliament gets to make this decision, not the Prime Minister.

    Nick Barber, Fellow, Trinity College Oxford.

    Tom Hickman, Reader, UCL and barrister at Blackstone Chambers

    Jeff King, Senior Lecturer in Law, UCL

    Comment


      #22
      Originally posted by bobspud View Post
      Right now there are a fair few un-elected toss pots in the EU that want this to play out. But they are not the ones that have to get European Beer, Wine and cars INTO England. Not to mention cheese and artisan foods of relatively high values.

      When the right people start to make their presence felt we will see a more balanced less nationalistic view.

      If Article 50 finally gets stabbed it will be under a pre-arranged and cleverly orchestrated deal that shows why it simply won't be worth pulling the plug and the damage it will cause both sides.
      The vested interests will boom and life will continue as nothing happened apart from in those places that will feel that they were screwed.
      It's great to have optimists around at a time like this.

      Comment


        #23
        FFS we're leaving. One of the points made (by all parties) is that MOST of the people who voted wanted a change in attitude from the 'authorities'. If they do as you suggest there would be Civil Unrest the likes of which would be unprecedented, and it wouldn't be those in need of a new TV orchestrating it.

        Comment


          #24
          Originally posted by NigelJK View Post
          FFS we're leaving. One of the points made (by all parties) is that MOST of the people who voted wanted a change in attitude from the 'authorities'. If they do as you suggest there would be Civil Unrest the likes of which would be unprecedented, and it wouldn't be those in need of a new TV orchestrating it.
          We're probably leaving. But we might not be. Nobody knows the future.

          Comment


            #25
            Originally posted by Old Greg View Post
            It's great to have optimists around at a time like this.
            No Im just a realist. I would be happy to pay something for free trade but not enough to make the EU happy and certainly not enough to continue to bankroll their socialist experimental Ponzi scheme.

            I know we have many more uses for the money we could save if we can do this properly and I know that we can benefit from not being in a position where we are all disadvantaged just so we are equal.

            That stated I can see that the outcome will cause the rich to lose far more than the poor in this fiasco and I know that because of that fact, short of holding a gun to their head they will not go through with it.

            So whats left?

            Comment


              #26
              Originally posted by CretinWatcher View Post
              I'm no lawyer but this suggests you're wrong:

              https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016...pensable-role/
              No, this is an argument, and I would fully expect to see such arguments (from academics in this case). I read it shortly after it was published a few days ago, and it centres around the conflicts that arise between the triggering of Article 50 and its implications for domestic legislation. However, they concede themselves that such conflicts do not contradict the formalistic interpretation that it can be triggered without approval, only that a conflict arises at some point in future. Of course, whether it does or not depends on the outcome of the negotiation!

              We'll see who is right in due course

              But think about this for a second. Had you won, how would you have responded to the idea that Gov't was going to ignore the outcome as advisory? That, I predict, would be the much bigger constitutional crisis, which is why very few MPs are arguing that the result should be ignored. They can abstain, of course. Again, we'll see who's right in due course...

              Comment


                #27
                Originally posted by bobspud View Post
                No Im just a realist. I would be happy to pay something for free trade but not enough to make the EU happy and certainly not enough to continue to bankroll their socialist experimental Ponzi scheme.

                I know we have many more uses for the money we could save if we can do this properly and I know that we can benefit from not being in a position where we are all disadvantaged just so we are equal.

                That stated I can see that the outcome will cause the rich to lose far more than the poor in this fiasco and I know that because of that fact, short of holding a gun to their head they will not go through with it.

                So whats left?
                I need you to use the term "sheeple" if I'm going to get on board.

                Comment


                  #28
                  Originally posted by Old Greg View Post
                  2 possible routes for Section 50 not being activated (or whatever the verb is)

                  1. Government chooses not too
                  2. Parliament takes the power from government though an Act

                  Either of these could happen with or without a GE.
                  You keep forgetting how Acts arise. The Executive is not going to put forward an Act that contradicts their stated position.

                  Seriously, I understand that you're upset, but take a step back for a second, and imagine the constitutional implications of what you're proposing, even if it were possible. You're a sensible chap, so I'm really quite surprised that you think there's a realistic scenario that we ignore this result. This is really no different than the conspiracy theories from the more loony Brexiters that you were mocking a couple of weeks ago.

                  Comment


                    #29
                    Look at this logically, who is going to vote for the UK to leave the EU, given the financial turmoil that will be apparent by the time the vote is taken?

                    Tory MPs are mostly for Remain, and yes, they are likely to be beholden to their constituents that voted Leave, likely to vote with the PM of the day and to Leave. Some, more than a few, will not however, probably 20-30 and that's enough for it to be rejected.

                    If Labour keep Corbyn they MPs will vote against whatever he tells them to do, given he was always for Brexit anyway, he'll tell them to accept the decision. If he's gone then MPs will, given the vast majority voted Remain in their constituencies, vote to reject it.

                    Lib Dems have already said they'd vote it out, obviously the same with the SNP.

                    The Result is likely to be that parliament rejects the motion. Now that is a constitutional crisis, likely to only be resolved by a second referendum which is legally binding, expect leave to need 55% of the vote though.

                    There, world sorted out for you and I haven't even opened my sandwich box yet, despite the permie opposite crunching his way through a bag of walkers.

                    Comment


                      #30
                      Originally posted by jamesbrown View Post
                      No, this is an argument, and I would fully expect to see such arguments (from academics in this case). I read it shortly after it was published a few days ago, and it centres around the conflicts that arise between the triggering of Article 50 and its implications for domestic legislation. However, they concede themselves that such conflicts do not contradict the formalistic interpretation that it can be triggered without approval, only that a conflict arises at some point in future. Of course, whether it does or not depends on the outcome of the negotiation!

                      We'll see who is right in due course

                      But think about this for a second. Had you won, how would you have responded to the idea that Gov't was going to ignore the outcome as advisory? That, I predict, would be the much bigger constitutional crisis, which is why very few MPs are arguing that the result should be ignored. They can abstain, of course. Again, we'll see who's right in due course...
                      1. Remain would be a simple outcome to manage whereas Leave is complex, whatever we think of the merits of each outcome.

                      2. Even Farage is championing a rerun due to the narrow 52 / 48 result.

                      3. I do think it would be politically impossible for the Parliament to ignore the result. But a new Parliament after a GE is a different matter.

                      Comment

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