BREXIT betting markets tracker

[jamesbrown]

Betting odds reflect where the money is going and where people see value. They are a useful tool, but simply a tool, alongside the polls. Personally, I think there's little value in Remain at these odds. The latest Survation phone poll (just released) has Leave climbing to 49.5, with Remain only 1% ahead. Very close indeed. The value is skewed towards Leave, as a risk/reward calculation, although I think the betting odds have the result correct (just not the probability).

[Old Greg]

Betting odds reflect where the money is going and where people see value. They are a useful tool, but simply a tool, alongside the polls. Personally, I think there's little value in Remain at these odds. The latest Survation phone poll (just released) has Leave climbing to 49.5, with Remain only 1% ahead. Very close indeed. The value is skewed towards Leave, as a risk/reward calculation, although I think the betting odds have the result correct (just not the probability).

I agree it's worth a punt on Leave at those odds.

[The_Equalizer]

I agree it's worth a punt on Leave at those odds.

Has anyone here put any serious cash on the result?

[DodgyAgent]

Will Paddy Power do a cull of the Brexiteers?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvq-uO-XgjM

[Old Greg]

Has anyone here put any serious cash on the result?

Interesting article here, but not me as I've lost every political bet I've ever made (no way the US will elect a black president etc.)

EU referendum is biggest political betting event in British history | Politics | The Guardian

[Uncle Albert]

Interesting article here, but not me as I've lost every political bet I've ever made (no way the US will elect a black president etc.)

Just out of interest, how would you bet on Trump v Clinton?

*Gets ready to bet warchest on the other side*

[The_Equalizer]

Interesting article here, but not me as I've lost every political bet I've ever made (no way the US will elect a black president etc.)

EU referendum is biggest political betting event in British history | Politics | The Guardian

I've never been in a bookies and I'm not starting now. That said, I've 'done well' on losing cash on shares. Although £40 million sounds quite a chunk, it would appear that £200 million was punted on the Grand National in 2015.

[Old Greg]

Just out of interest, how would you bet on Trump v Clinton?

*Gets ready to bet warchest on the other side*

Trump is worth a go at 5/2.

[sirja]

I've never been in a bookies and I'm not starting now. That said, I've 'done well' on losing cash on shares. Although £40 million sounds quite a chunk, it would appear that £200 million was punted on the Grand National in 2015.

I've done so badly on shares and spread bets I am considering setting up subscription service, where for a small fee, I tell people what I am buying/selling and they can go ahead and do the exact opposite(If I am long go short, if I am long go short) lots of people will pay off their mortgages in no time with my 'track record'!

[Old Greg]

Betting odds reflect where the money is going and where people see value. They are a useful tool, but simply a tool, alongside the polls. Personally, I think there's little value in Remain at these odds. The latest Survation phone poll (just released) has Leave climbing to 49.5, with Remain only 1% ahead. Very close indeed. The value is skewed towards Leave, as a risk/reward calculation, although I think the betting odds have the result correct (just not the probability).

Another good article:

Should you trust the pollsters or the bookies on the EU referendum? | Politics | The Guardian