BREXIT betting markets tracker

[jamesbrown]

Has anyone here put any serious cash on the result?

Depends what you mean by serious cash. I've had a moderate bet on Remain @ 1.55 decimal odds, but I've taken some much larger punts on Barclays and Easyjet (probably stand to lose 20-30k on a Brexit vote). Both would be hammered (esp. Barclays with financial passporting being uncertain), but they would survive, whereas some other companies, I'm not sure sure (e.g. RBS will rebound very strongly indeed on a Remain vote, but I wouldn't want to be left holding those on Brexit). So, yes, I will receive a reasonable kicking if we Brexit. On the other hand, MyCo is quite heavily exposed to foreign currencies, so there's an element of hedge (i.e. a lot of the losses would be clawed back via weak Sterling).

[jamesbrown]

Another good article:

Should you trust the pollsters or the bookies on the EU referendum? | Politics | The Guardian

Yes. My main reason for favouring betting odds, in general, is not so much the cash being staked, but the statistical averaging that is taking place over a fairly large sample and, as we know, the average or expected value is generally a good predictor. However, there's also a lot of herd behaviour and, frankly, the current odds are completely miss-pricing the probability of a Leave vote IMO, so this makes me very wary of trusting them more than the polls.

The tricky thing with probability forecasts is that you can never verify them retrospectively for one-off events. The weather provides a reasonable (contrasting) analogy. If you collect together 1000 cases where a weather forecast suggested a 30% chance of rain (on average), you could at least have some confidence that the probability forecasts were reliable if, when collecting the observed outcomes retrospectively, rain occurred on ~300 of those 1000 occasions. But there are some implicit assumptions here (stationarity, edogicity) that don't apply in one-off referendums, so we'll never know whether the probabilities were any good, retrospectively, for this referendum.

[The_Equalizer]

Depends what you mean by serious cash. I've had a moderate bet on Remain @ 1.55 decimal odds, but I've taken some much larger punts on Barclays and Easyjet (probably stand to lose 20-30k on a Brexit vote). Both would be hammered (esp. Barclays with financial passporting being uncertain), but they would survive, whereas some other companies, I'm not sure sure (e.g. RBS will rebound very strongly indeed on a Remain vote, but I wouldn't want to be left holding those on Brexit). So, yes, I will receive a reasonable kicking if we Brexit. On the other hand, MyCo is quite heavily exposed to foreign currencies, so there's an element of hedge (i.e. a lot of the losses would be clawed back via weak Sterling).

So a reasonable hedge. I've got a fair bit in Sterling, but that's for a house in the UK so should make very little difference at least in the short term.

[Old Greg]

Yes. My main reason for favouring betting odds, in general, is not so much the cash being staked, but the statistical averaging that is taking place over a fairly large sample and, as we know, the average or expected value is generally a good predictor. However, there's also a lot of herd behaviour and, frankly, the current odds are completely miss-pricing the probability of a Leave vote IMO, so this makes me very wary of trusting them more than the polls.

The tricky thing with probability forecasts is that you can never verify them retrospectively for one-off events. The weather provides a reasonable (contrasting) analogy. If you collect together 1000 cases where a weather forecast suggested a 30% chance of rain (on average), you could at least have some confidence that the probability forecasts were reliable if, when collecting the observed outcomes retrospectively, rain occurred on ~300 of those 1000 occasions. But there are some implicit assumptions here (stationarity, edogicity) that don't apply in one-off referendums, so we'll never know whether the probabilities were any good, retrospectively, for this referendum.

Yes, and I think also that a referenedum is a fun novelty bet for occasional gamblers - like the Grand National. Makes an all night drinking session for exit poll analysis until 5 am or later ( When are the EU referendum results, what time will we know the winner - and how do I watch it on TV? ) more fun.

[jamesbrown]

Yes, and I think also that a referenedum is a fun novelty bet for occasional gamblers - like the Grand National. Makes an all night drinking session for exit poll analysis until 5 am or later ( When are the EU referendum results, what time will we know the winner - and how do I watch it on TV? ) more fun.

Precisely. I'm looking forward to it either way

IIRC, YouGov is doing one traditional poll on Thursday, which should be fun. There won't be any exit polls (in the traditional sense), because they don't work well for binary options. However, you can bet that all of the financial institutions will be doing/commissioning polling on the day and feeding that into their risk models. You may actually learn the result via Sterling on Thursday, depending on how close the result falls, although there could be some false dawns too.

[AtW]

Markets know that even in the good outcome Govt will be forced to do more tax increases - Osborne only postponed total carnage in pension reliefs until after the referendum, he needs to do it now in a vain hope that everybody forgets it by 2020...

[jamesbrown]

Markets know that even in the good outcome Govt will be forced to do more tax increases - Osborne only postponed total carnage in pension reliefs until after the referendum, he needs to do it now in a vain hope that everybody forgets it by 2020...

If I were betting, I'd bet on Gidiot being gone before the Autumn Statement, regardless of the outcome. At this point, there's going to be serious turmoil within the Tories and, given Gidiot's punishment budget, he can't survive as Chancellor.

[AtW]

If I were betting, I'd bet on Gidiot being gone before the Autumn Statement, regardless of the outcome. At this point, there's going to be serious turmoil within the Tories and, given Gidiot's punishment budget, he can't survive as Chancellor.

He'd only agree to go if he becomes PM - Brown style.

[jamesbrown]

He'd only agree to go if he becomes PM - Brown style.

IMO, it's going to pan out as follows. Remain win by ~53/47 (by less than I'd previously expected). There's enormous pressure on Hamface for his conduct during the campaign, as perceived by his backbenchers supporting Brexit. They may or may not decide to write to Graham Brady and spark a leadership contest. If they do, Hamface wins, so it wouldn't be a good idea. Either way, there are may more backbench Tories in the awkward squad than Hamface has a parliamentary majority. They absolutely hate Gidiot and want him gone. They also want a timetable for Hamface to go. Either Hamface governs as a minority for the next 3-4 years, and no significant/controversial legislation is passed, or he agrees to outline a timetable for his departure and to move Osborne from HMT to, perhaps, the Foreign Office (he likes playing with foreign dignitaries). In that event, they may get some legislation through.

[PurpleGorilla]

IMO, it's going to pan out as follows. Remain win by ~53/47 (by less than I'd previously expected). There's enormous pressure on Hamface for his conduct during the campaign, as perceived by his backbenchers supporting Brexit. They may or may not decide to write to Graham Brady and spark a leadership contest. If they do, Hamface wins, so it wouldn't be a good idea. Either way, there are may more backbench Tories in the awkward squad than Hamface has a parliamentary majority. They absolutely hate Gidiot and want him gone. They also want a timetable for Hamface to go. Either Hamface governs as a minority for the next 3-4 years, and no significant/controversial legislation is passed, or he agrees to outline a timetable for his departure and to move Osborne from HMT to, perhaps, the Foreign Office (he likes playing with foreign dignitaries). In that event, they may get some legislation through.

I think the vote will be closer, my guess is 1%, either way.