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The issues with the graph are statistical, so someone studying for a doctorate in econometrics is more than qualified to point out the errors. Indeed anyone doing GCSE science knows that any result must be presented with an estimate of the uncertainties.
Here's the first problem…
"For starters, where are the confidence intervals? I don't mean the pseudo-intervals generated by the CMIP5 ensemble (those are really just a spread of the individual trend means across all of the climate models). I mean the confidence intervals attached to each trend estimate*. Any first-year statistics or econometrics students knows that regression coefficients come with standard errors and implied confidence intervals. Indeed, accounting for these uncertainties is largely what hypothesis testing is about: Can we confidently rule out that a parameter of interest doesn't overlap with some value or range? Absent these uncertainty measures, one cannot talk meaningfully about rejecting a hypothesis. I have therefore reproduced the above figure from M&K's poster, but now with 95% error bars attached to each of the "observed" HadCRUT4 trend estimates.
…
As we can see, there is complete overlap with these error bars and the ensemble range. M&K's bold assertion that we should reject climate models as failed mathematical hypotheses does not hold water. At no point can we say that the observed trend in temperature is statistically different from the trend predicted by the climate models."
And as you played the man rather than the ball, did you read down Michaels' CV to the point where his 6-figure income from the oil and coal industry are discussed?
Oreskes. Famous for her intellectual prowess, has three weapons in her arsenal
1. shut down debate by calling people a denier
2. shut down debate by telling people they are not climate scientists
3. she can out-stare a garden gnome
Naomi, top tip - cash in on the climate scam while you still have your looks
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("")("") Born to Drink. Forced to Work
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