Climate Catastrophe

[LondonManc]

I'm tulip

As you were then.

[WTFH]

I'm tulip

No you're not, you're a very naughty boy

[pjclarke]

July was warmest month on Earth in 136 years, NOAA says - LA Times

[DodgyAgent]

July was warmest month on Earth in 136 years, NOAA says - LA Times

Wow Over 136 years!!!

I am holidaying in the UK .. bring it on.

[BlasterBates]

To be expected really, as we are in the warm part of the climate cycle.

Enjoy it while its lasts, because.....

Global Cooling Ahead

Had they looked at the temperatures over the last 250 years, they may have arrived at a different conclusion.

Lüdecke, Hempelmann and Weiss also examined the oldest existing thermometer datasets going back some 250 years [2] taken at the locations of Kremsmünster, Vienna, Prague, Hohenpeißenberg, Munich and Paris. Their study also included ice cores and stalagmite datasets, which the scientists say “show exclusively periodic climate changes in fine detail. There is no trace of aperiodic effects, such as from the continuously rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

[BlasterBates]

According to the satellite temperatures it was not the hottest July in 136 years.




In fact it wasn't even the hottest July in the last two years.

[original PM]

Stop with your facts we're doomed I tell ya


Doomed

[pjclarke]

To be expected really, as we are in the warm part of the climate cycle.

Enjoy it while its lasts, because.....

Global Cooling Ahead

Had they looked at the temperatures over the last 250 years, they may have arrived at a different conclusion.

Many, many attempts have been made to apply dubious filtering and curve-fitting techniques to the temp record to find cycles (check out the work of Nicola Scarfetta). None, including this, explain the recent rapid rise. I'll be surprised if the paper is ever published. Here's a review by Richard Telford of the University of Bergen.

http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/11/...-C206-2015.pdf

Lüdecke et al filter their proxy data with an OLS filter. Lüdecke et al argue that this filter
allows them to focus on the rate of temperature rise rather than temperature per se.
However, the effect is to use a (poorly performing) band-pass filter. Low frequencies are
supressed. High frequencies are also supressed but not monotonically. Frequencies
near the 1/200 year cycle the paper seeks to detect are preserved and consequently
dominate the filtered record. [...]

The rationale for using this filter does not seem greatly persuasive, especially since
the authors explain that the filtered record is just a phase shift from the original with
the advantage that frequencies they do not wish to consider supressed. Even if the
authors processed white noise, they would find apparent de Vries cycles fairly often
with this filter.

The predictions for future climate are dubious. The 200-year cycle the authors have
extracted from the proxy data represents a very small component of the variance in
the proxies. It only appears large in this paper because of the filter used. Even if
this cycle could be predicted, which is doubtful as at least some of its power is due
to volcanic forcing, the contribution of other frequencies would make any prediction
useless before we even consider the role of anthropogenic forcings. The predictions
would be more credible if the methods could be shown to have some predictive power.
This could be done by splitting the data into two parts, fitting the sine waves to one part
and comparing the predictions with the remainder of the data.
Rather than making dubious predictions about future climate, it would be much more
valuable if the authors explored the physical relationship between solar variability and
the proxy records. How is it possible that, for example, the proxies are not in phase
with each other and the TSI if they are governed by the de Vries cycle?

[pjclarke]

According to the satellite temperatures it was not the hottest July in 136 years.




In fact it wasn't even the hottest July in the last two years.

So you don't understand the difference between absolute temperatures and anomalies, or indeed the lower atmosphere and the surface.

[EternalOptimist]

It's starting to look like In North America they had the refusal of the great lakes ice to melt, In Europe we had a cold July, Asia - freezing, Arctic - ice up, Antarctic - ice up, Australia - dismal and cold, South America - colder than normal.
But from a global point of view, it seems to have been very warm.