Oil < $50 a Barrel. The Dirty Spekulant thread

[chef]

Energy intensive industries are looking good. I think the oil price will stay low for at least 9 - 12 months, till OPEC reduce supply. The Saudis are playing some sort of long game, I don't know what or why.

the game the saudis are playing is directly linked to the US fracking industry. By lowering the cost of oil so low the fracking industry cant survive they have wiped out a competitor and then business can resume as normal when the saudis know they have the monopoly over the market again. until that point they have strengthened relations with their local neighbours by offering dirt cheap loans to other countries while the game is played out so that they arent affected by it.

that's my theory reading between the lines based upon the middle east newspapers back in October last year.

[scooterscot]

You're changing the topic here. One minute you're talking about cheap prices, and now you're talking about falling prices. I've been following, or trying to follow, this thread thinking that cheap means already bottomed out.

I don't think I've mentioned price anywhere in this thread, have I... I'm only interested in identifying the successors of 2015. My firm belief is it belongs with those industries that excel during period of normalising. The period we're about to enter. You'd be amazed how many we've abandoned during the so called 'boom' years to the point of forgetting them completely.

[zemoxyl]

Think about the companies, that are already heavily in debt, but whose services are in demand.

Banks.

[Tasslehoff]

the game the saudis are playing is directly linked to the US fracking industry. By lowering the cost of oil so low the fracking industry cant survive they have wiped out a competitor and then business can resume as normal when the saudis know they have the monopoly over the market again. until that point they have strengthened relations with their local neighbours by offering dirt cheap loans to other countries while the game is played out so that they arent affected by it.

that's my theory reading between the lines based upon the middle east newspapers back in October last year.

That's exactly the theory I was told by a friend who works on a North Sea oil rig. Wait for Fraking to frak up, the stick the prices back up again.

[scooterscot]

That's exactly the theory I was told by a friend who works on a North Sea oil rig. Wait for Fraking to frak up, the stick the prices back up again.

And if it doesn't?

[GlenW]

successors of 2015

That'll be 2016, 2017 and 2018.

HTH

[Tasslehoff]

And if it doesn't?

Seems pretty straight forward, why would you buy Fracked oil at $90 if you can get "normal oil" at $40.

But if for some reason it does not, the price will continue to fall and places like Russia and Qatar have real problems.

[DannyF1966]

I don't think I've mentioned price anywhere in this thread, have I...

No you haven't, apart from these times:

Do your own research. Who benefited last time oil prices were so low? Its bleeding obvious.

Think long-term. The beneficiaries of low oil prices could not be clearer.

The effects of a low oil price will be long-term.

Why would we think cheap oil would stimulate when demand falters?

[scooterscot]

As in the number not the written word!! Argh


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[eek]

the game the saudis are playing is directly linked to the US fracking industry. By lowering the cost of oil so low the fracking industry cant survive they have wiped out a competitor and then business can resume as normal when the saudis know they have the monopoly over the market again. until that point they have strengthened relations with their local neighbours by offering dirt cheap loans to other countries while the game is played out so that they arent affected by it.

that's my theory reading between the lines based upon the middle east newspapers back in October last year.

That's not a good theory. The bankruptcy of the original fracking companies will result in a lower production cost if production restarts as the replacement fracking companies who bought the original assets dirt cheap restart production.

Yes there is a short term gain by removing fracking production from the market but unless prices remain low all they will have done is reduce fracking production costs in the longer term.