Salmond "We can take Scotland in two weeks"

[minestrone]

As I said the other day RBS used to pay more in corporation tax than the Scottish workforce paid in PAYE. At some point they will return to a profitable bank.

To brush off RBS moving their taxable head office to London as nothing shows how deluded and out of touch the nationalists are.

[BrilloPad]

As I said the other day RBS used to pay more in corporation tax than the Scottish workforce paid in PAYE. At some point they will return to a profitable bank.

To brush off RBS moving their taxable head office to London as nothing shows how deluded and out of touch the nationalists are.

The only way RBS will ever be profitable would be via even more QE.

[Unix]

Bookies odds of a YES vote have drifted to 7/2. Looks unlikely now, which is a pity.

Bookies and polls have no idea how its going to go. No one can predict the result, who can know the mind of millions of Scots.

[Old Greg]

Bookies and polls have no idea how its going to go. No one can predict the result, who can know the mind of millions of Scots.

Of course nobody can predict the result, but bookies can predict the likelihood of a result as it's their business. Who can predict the result of a horse race?

However, there is a nice analysis here which suggests that it is slightly more complicated than a pure prediction of the likelihood.

And yet the betting isn’t reflecting that. If polls were reliable, you would expect odds of about evens on both yes and no, reflecting a 50% chance of either. Instead the odds say 2/5 for no (implying a 70% chance) and 12/5 for yes (implying a 30% chance). Why are bookmakers so certain that Scotland will say no?

Graham Sharpe of William Hill explains that it’s partly about liability management. “We are facing a seven-figure loss on a no vote and a six-figure win on a yes vote so we’re trying to even that out,” he says. The momentum might be with yes, but long-term the money has been coming in for a no. “Plus a lot of people think 15% of ‘no’ voters haven’t just disappeared overnight,” says Sharpe.

[Unix]

Of course nobody can predict the result, but bookies can predict the likelihood of a result as it's their business. Who can predict the result of a horse race?

However, there is a nice analysis here which suggests that it is slightly more complicated than a pure prediction of the likelihood.

The problem with the bookies is that their largest bets are probably coming from London who probably were betting based on earlier polls and biased media down south. Given none of them can vote the odds are a terrible way to predict the result.

[scooterscot]

RBS is 64% owned by the Government, hardly surprising they are being used as a mouthpiece for the No camp.

Not to mention bankrupt and owned by the taxpayer, since it's YOU that's paying for it.

Nice of the English tax payer to take away this rotten apple.

[Old Greg]

The problem with the bookies is that their largest bets are probably coming from London who probably were betting based on earlier polls and biased media down south. Given none of them can vote the odds are a terrible way to predict the result.

Then why don't you pile in at 7/2?

[Unix]

Then why don't you pile in at 7/2?

I don't gamble.

I do think the result will shock the media, there are many estates in Glasgow/Edinburgh/Aberdeen etc where the pollsters and media were scared to go who will all vote Yes. I think it will be high 50's for Yes.

[scooterscot]

Are we watching the live broadcast?

Nick Robinson is being torn a new one. It's a laugh.

[Unix]

Are we watching the live broadcast?

Nick Robinson is being torn a new one. It's a laugh.

Who is doing the tearing? Nothing on 5 live.