Crypto industry set to grow

[willendure]

Fair enough - its only a short term trend. But still remarkable that it ever got there.

[mogga71]

Its volatility has been falling over time.

Get this...

https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bi...paypal-and-amd

"On January 15, 2025, Bitcoin's volatility was reported to be lower than that of Nvidia, PayPal, and AMD, according to data from IntoTheBlock (Source: TheCryptoBasic, January 15, 2025). Specifically, Bitcoin's 30-day volatility stood at 2.34%, while Nvidia's was at 3.12%, PayPal's at 2.89%, and AMD's at 3.05% (Source: IntoTheBlock, January 15, 2025). This decrease in volatility reflects Bitcoin's growing maturity in the financial markets, signaling a shift towards more stable trading conditions."

Makes me think of the falling volatility of emerging markets from 1990 through to 2007 due to the ending of the cold war and globalization. If you spotted the trend, you profitted handsomely.

It's crazy that we live in a world whereby gigantic companies like Nvidia can see 10% daily swings. In Peter Lynch's time hardly any stocks made those sort of moves in a year.

Regarding Bitcoin ... it's a strange one. Some incredibly smart people (like Lyn Alden) have bought Bitcoin but I personally consider it a big risk. I would only feel comfortable buying some if it stopped behaving like a 'risk on' tech stock and instead had its own path. For example if the Nasdaq went down but Bitcoin went up I wouid consider it. Also presently it's not a currency that can easily used in a transaction ... that has got to change.

I don't think poor Trump will end up doing Bitcoin any favours ..... I think the poor sucker will end up being the fall guy for a massive market crash that will take down both stocks and cryptos.

[willendure]

It's crazy that we live in a world whereby gigantic companies like Nvidia can see 10% daily swings. In Peter Lynch's time hardly any stocks made those sort of moves in a year.

Regarding Bitcoin ... it's a strange one. Some incredibly smart people (like Lyn Alden) have bought Bitcoin but I personally consider it a big risk. I would only feel comfortable buying some if it stopped behaving like a 'risk on' tech stock and instead had its own path. For example if the Nasdaq went down but Bitcoin went up I wouid consider it. Also presently it's not a currency that can easily used in a transaction ... that has got to change.

I don't think poor Trump will end up doing Bitcoin any favours ..... I think the poor sucker will end up being the fall guy for a massive market crash that will take down both stocks and cryptos.

Yes, if bitcoin and nasdaq ever diverge, then it becomes its own thing. I certainly think if there is an AI bubble popping, it will take bitcoin down with it. The case for divergence comes if the dollar continues into fiscal dominance and they start printing money to pay their interest. In that scenario gold should do very well and by extension bitcoin too.

Trump could well end up being the fall guy for the AI bubble. If he imposes tarrifs too quickly that really will not help. Echoes of Reagan here his term in office started with a recession and then his policies really turned that around. It might not be bad for Trump overall if he gets the pain out of the way early, then takes credit for the boom that follows.

[WTFH]

Simple solution: get AI to trade crypto.

[willendure]

Simple solution: get AI to trade crypto.

https://jesse.trade/

There certainly are patterns and short term predictability, whether or not large and predictable enough to exploit to make a consistent profit above buy and hold, not so sure. This framework only offers hyper parameter tuning through the genetic algorithm. I can see how more modern AI techniques can be used on this kind of data to predict probabilities of win/loss. Then use fractional kelly betting to enure your risk/return is likely to be positive. But is there enough edge beyond transaction costs?

[Cookielove]

Crypto risky I know a few people who have made a fair whack on dogecoin …but it’s high risk!

[willendure]

Some incredibly smart people (like Lyn Alden) have bought Bitcoin but I personally consider it a big risk. For example if the Nasdaq went down but Bitcoin went up I wouid consider it.

In the last month, NDQ down 6.73%, BTC up 8.59%. We have also seen SPX and NDQ drop below their 200 day averages, whilst BTC just smashed its way above its 200 day. I know its not a long enough time horizon to be sure but the decoupling meme is certainly alive now.

I read Lyn Aldens book "Broken Money", a lot of things made sense that I had not fully appreciated before. Decided to run a full bitcoin node, installed core on a vm on my homelab box. Just for kicks this does not do any mining and I don't have a live wallet attached but helps to verify the network.

Decided I am going to start using my corporate bitstamp account and averaging a small amount every month from now on.