In pure terms of seeing opportunities appear on Jobserve or LinkedIn this is a bad as I have seen it in my 16 years in contracting. That said in my last few goes at getting a new contract it came through my network or being approached through LinkedIn so maybe it isn't the end of the world.
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State of the Market
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Originally posted by Fraidycat View PostSome historical data from the Jobstats archive, chart below.
Shows the 2001 slump lasted from mid 2001 to the end of 2003. That was 30 months.
The 2008 slump looks like it lasted around 15 months, the cut to almost zero interest rates saving the day.
With reports that this current slump started in mid 2022, would mean we are 24 months into this one
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Originally posted by SchumiStars View Post
Have you got a graphic which represents more up to date data, this one shows up to 2010 please?https://www.itjobswatch.co.uk/contracts/uk/csharp.do6months to June 2022 6months to June 2023 6months to June 2024 Contract jobs citing Finance 18,065 11,912 8,175 Contract jobs requiring a Developer 16,044 8,970 6,253 Contract jobs citing C# 5,216 2,884 2,051 Contract jobs citing Java 8965 4651 2816 Comment
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That site would suggest the market in general for most skills is down almost 60% compared to 2 years ago, when looked at over the last six months.
This month on its own, the market looks to be in even worse shape, probably down 80% on two years ago. While job applicants for each role could be 10x to 100x what they used to be.Last edited by Fraidycat; 26 June 2024, 16:58.Comment
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According to layoff.fyi, World wide tech layoffs increased in Q1 2024 to 57,000 from 23,000 in Q3 last year, and are on track for around 45,000 in Q2
We need a return to 2021 levels (see the chart below) for the boom times to return.
Second half of last year it looked like the worst was over, seven interest rates cuts were expected for 2024 back then and layoff fells,
but when those cuts didn't happen this year it looks like layoffs accelerated
Last edited by Fraidycat; 27 June 2024, 08:33.Comment
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Thanks for posting these graphs and stats. It looks like the current slump started around 18 months ago. The 2001 slump lasted 30 months or so, so we know that is very possible. I think what worries me is that the situation globally is still deteriorating - as you say, the 4 interest rate cuts never materialized. So my reading of this is that the current slump is still on a downward trajectory and the turnaround some way off.
Here are just some of the indications that I am aware of that suggest a large deflationary event is on its way:
* Strong correlation between the VIX (volatility index) and interest rates delayed 18 months. Suggests high likelyhood of coming volatility over the next 6 months.
* Current rising CDO defaults on commercial real estate. The worst is still to come and we can expect bank failures.
* The "Hindenberg Omen" technical indicator is giving a signal right now - stock market rising but more companies making new 52-week lows than making 52-week highs. That is, the market is getting very concentrated into just a few stocks. NVidia!
* The Shiller P/E ratio made a new high since the last one in 1999, meaning stocks are now more overpriced than they were then.
* US house sales dropped to a low at the start of this year. Strong indicator of a coming recession.
None of these are perfect on their own, but taken together - and there are more - are a mounting collection of evidence that the US economy is coming under strain and will reach a breaking point.
Oil is currently relatively low. If it were to rise, that might be the trigger.Last edited by willendure; 27 June 2024, 09:35.Comment
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The good news is, if you are out of work right now, its not because you are a numpty - the market really is bad!Comment
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Originally posted by willendure View PostThanks for posting these graphs and stats. It looks like the current slump started around 18 months ago. The 2001 slump lasted 30 months or so, so we know that is very possible. I think what worries me is that the situation globally is still deteriorating - as you say, the 4 interest rate cuts never materialized. So my reading of this is that the current slump is still on a downward trajectory and the turnaround some way off.
Here are just some of the indications that I am aware of that suggest a large deflationary event is on its way:
* Strong correlation between the VIX (volatility index) and interest rates delayed 18 months. Suggests high likelyhood of coming volatility over the next 6 months.
* Current rising CDO defaults on commercial real estate. The worst is still to come and we can expect bank failures.
* The "Hindenberg Omen" technical indicator is giving a signal right now - stock market rising but more companies making new 52-week lows than making 52-week highs. That is, the market is getting very concentrated into just a few stocks. NVidia!
* The Shiller P/E ratio made a new high since the last one in 1999, meaning stocks are now more overpriced than they were then.
* US house sales dropped to a low at the start of this year. Strong indicator of a coming recession.
None of these are perfect on their own, but taken together - and there are more - are a mounting collection of evidence that the US economy is coming under strain and will reach a breaking point.
Oil is currently relatively low. If it were to rise, that might be the trigger.
On the plus side, the property market in my neck of the woods (Yorkshire) has just caught fire. On my return from the supermarket today, a journey of just over 1 mile, on the main road alone, 12 For Sale signs and 1 To Let. Eight of those properties have sold and the rental has been let. Three more my estate all sold. Some folk out there are doing well, have the confidence to move. Also lots of people staying and improving/extending what they've got. Further afield in Southern Spain where I have property, prices have shot up, 12.5% in the last year (after flatlining for a decade since the financial crash).
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Christ. Just had an email for a Service Manager for DWP in Blackpool. 2-3 days on site. Tons of qualifications and experience required..... 260-285 a day inside...
That's the worst rate I think I've ever seen for work in my area. I think I'll pass thank you.'CUK forum personality of 2011 - Winner - Yes really!!!!Comment
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Originally posted by northernladuk View PostChrist. Just had an email for a Service Manager for DWP in Blackpool. 2-3 days on site. Tons of qualifications and experience required..... 260-285 a day inside...
That's the worst rate I think I've ever seen for work in my area. I think I'll pass thank you.
The funny thing is that the same contractors who were rejected by them earlier gets the role at a better rate. Public sector Efficiency is Awesome!Comment
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