State of the Market

[Unix]

This thread started in 2016. Interest rates and GEs and pandemics and downturns and summer holidays are all reasons, on different timescales. However, the systematic commoditization of IT skillets started before this thread started. Peaks and troughs will continue, but they are superimposed on a downwards trajectory.

I was talking about this recent quiet period. I've been in contracts since 2006 with at most gaps of a few weeks, rate it highest its been in current contract so not seeing the downward trajectory in my area.

[Fraidycat]

However, the systematic commoditization of IT skillets started before this thread started. Peaks and troughs will continue, but they are superimposed on a downwards trajectory.

The background downwards trajectory is relatively small, like -2% a year on rates in real terms or something like that.

It was pretty meaningless and not noticeable over the short term, anything less than a 10 year timeframe.

We have had something like an 80% fall in the number of contracts in the last couple of years. Thats what we are talking about.

[jamesbrown]

I was talking about this recent quiet period. I've been in contracts since 2006 with at most gaps of a few weeks, rate it highest its been in current contract so not seeing the downward trajectory in my area.

The recent quiet period will probably end when interest rates are cut substantially. For anyone with a generalist IT skillset, it isn't going to get any easier to maintain a decent living standard and the next downturn probably won't be very far away.

[Fraidycat]

The recent quiet period will probably end when interest rates are cut substantially. For anyone with a generalist IT skillset, it isn't going to get any easier to maintain a decent living standard and the next downturn probably won't be very far away.

When demand exceeds supply, companies will hire almost anyone with a pulse. Ok i am exaggerating, but companies are more than happy to cross hire people into different skillsets as long as you can half pass the interview process. Anyone who is any good wont have a problem finding a decent paying contract when the good times return.

During the booms times it easy to think the good times will last forever, and during the bust it easy to fall into the trap the good times will never return. I think you are suffering from the later.

[jamesbrown]

When demand exceeds supply, companies will hire almost anyone with a pulse. Ok i am exaggerating, but companies are more than happy to cross hire people into different skillsets as long as you can half pass the interview process. Anyone who is any good wont have a problem finding a decent paying contract when the good times return.

During the booms times it easy to think the good times will last forever, and during the bust it easy to fall into the trap the good times will never return. I think you are suffering from the later.

I'm not personally suffering from anything, as I've never been out of work and never had better paying contracts, but I'm not an IT generalist. From what I can see of general IT, it has been a very long downwards slide, accelerated by the pandemic and associated gov't interventions. This thread serves as a testament to the broader forces operating, which are definitely not recent, some of those UK-centric (e.g., IR35) and others not (e.g., commoditization and offshoring).

[Fraidycat]

This thread serves as a testament to the broader forces operating, which are definitely not recent, some of those UK-centric (e.g., IR35) and others not (e.g., commoditization and offshoring).

Im not seeing much difference so far with this downturn and the one in 2001-2003. That one lasted about 30 months.

The 2008 and 2020 down turns were relatively short as the central banks cut interest rates and pumped in money using QE, so contractors did not have to experience a long downturn in the almost 20 years between 2003 and 2022.

There was also a nasty downturn between 1991 and 1994.

[Fraidycat]

Pro tip for out of work contractors struggling to land perm roles, this works with public sector/government roles:

[sreed]

I was talking about this recent quiet period. I've been in contracts since 2006 with at most gaps of a few weeks, rate it highest its been in current contract so not seeing the downward trajectory in my area.

Same here. I don’t have as much contracting history as Unix but even as a generalist PM I’ve not found it terribly hard to get a decent paying contract. If I lost my current contract tomorrow, I’m fairly confident of being able to get another one that I’m happy with.

The contracting market (and the general white collar job market) has definitely changed a lot in the past few years but there’s still plenty of opportunity if you have the right skills, drive and flexibility to adapt.

[SussexSeagull]

I think generalists get a bit of a hard time on here. The thing is about specialisation is it is, well, quite specialised so not many people can do it. Absolutely fine if you have carved a niche for yourself that is so small it wouldn't occur to anyone to try and muscle in (even if they could) but I recall being in demand as a web tester 25 years ago and now it is so assumed it wouldn't get mentioned in an interview.

You are also entirely at the mercy of trends in that sector and when the market is bad there is no work for anyone, no matter what your CV is.

I am being overly simplistic but it its business, not a purity test.

[sadkingbilly]

Pro tip for out of work contractors struggling to land perm roles, this works with public sector/government roles:

what utter balderdash.