State of the Market

[Fraidycat]

Bad news in the US, inflation came in a bit hotter than expected yesterday.

Instead of 3 rate cut this year there may be now only be 1 rate cut this year.

Some are even saying more rate rises might be needed instead of cuts.

The Bank of England follows the US Fed most of the time so not good news for the UK Contracting market either.

[edison]

Bad news in the US, inflation came in a bit hotter than expected yesterday.

Instead of 3 rate cut this year there may be now only be 1 rate cut this year.

Some are even saying more rate rises might be needed instead of cuts.

The Bank of England follows the US Fed most of the time so not good news for the UK Contracting market either.

That is bad news. We might even have a scenario where there are no UK base rate cuts before an autumn election.

[edison]

I keep applying for stuff but 99.9% of the time I never hear back at all.

It's disheartening when you don't even get automated rejections and ghosting is common but you have to keep persevering.

On the plus side, I saw a contract role on Jobserve last week where I now seem to get no replies to any applications. A recruiter's name was listed with a phone number so I chanced my arm and called it and got the switchboard. Thought I would get fobbed off but the recruiter spoke to me and after just 30 seconds outlining my experience he asked me to email my CV directly and he would call straight back.

I now have an interview with the client today. If I had just applied straight via Jobserve my CV might just have got lost in a pile of others.

So always try to speak to the recruiter. 90% of the time now it's impossible but you never know.

[tsmith]

It's disheartening when you don't even get automated rejections and ghosting is common but you have to keep persevering.

On the plus side, I saw a contract role on Jobserve last week where I now seem to get no replies to any applications. A recruiter's name was listed with a phone number so I chanced my arm and called it and got the switchboard. Thought I would get fobbed off but the recruiter spoke to me and after just 30 seconds outlining my experience he asked me to email my CV directly and he would call straight back.

I now have an interview with the client today. If I had just applied straight via Jobserve my CV might just have got lost in a pile of others.

So always try to speak to the recruiter. 90% of the time now it's impossible but you never know.

You're probably right.

If theres a lack of roles though. Youd have thought that would give recruiters all the time in the world to call candidates

Im guessing whats happening is their bosses are asking them to spend 95% of their time cold calling potential clients to drum up new business as the market is depressed = less time to spend on resourcing candidates

I remember hearing some stat years ago - the percentage of time spent looking for new biz was 40% of the role for a recruiter - wonder what it is now

Also these recruiters are on commission so they ultimately dont care who gets the role as long as they dont bounce straight back out again

1) this guy called me - saves me having to call 100 other candidates to see if theyre free
2) chuck the dudes CV over to the client
3) back to smile and dial some random startups to see if they need Python Devs so i can get another commission on a sale

[avonleigh]

Bad news in the US, inflation came in a bit hotter than expected yesterday.

Instead of 3 rate cut this year there may be now only be 1 rate cut this year.

Some are even saying more rate rises might be needed instead of cuts.

The Bank of England follows the US Fed most of the time so not good news for the UK Contracting market either.

If you listen to Megan Greene the UK is not going to have rate cuts at all this year. It's really bad news as nothing is going to change until we do.

[sreed]

If you listen to Megan Greene the UK is not going to have rate cuts at all this year. It's really bad news as nothing is going to change until we do.

Tbf her opinion isn’t shared across the MPC.

An alternate opinion (copy pasted as-is from the top rated comment under her FT opinion piece) is as follows. Only time (and future unknowns) will tell who turns out correct -

“Once the tricky March-June annual comparison period drops out of the equation (ie by July) then the annualised inflation number will move down to be closer to the 3,6,9 month inflation numbers, all of which are below 2% and at the highest 1.6%.

We will then be in a situation where inflation has a 1 handle, GDP is 0.something (0.2%??) and rates are 5%+.

The last time we were in such a situation was almost 50 years ago and rates ended up coming down 10%+ from a very high level.

Further fuelling the inflation drop are food prices, household energy prices and rapidly slowing wage growth outside of the minimum wage increase (self inflicted inflation).

It should be clear by now that I think Megan is completely and utterly wrong, borderline crazy. The U.K. is not the US, for sure. We have lower growth, lower consumption, lower disposable income thanks to structurally higher energy prices, no housing bubble, no stock market bubble,.

We will soon have inflation well below 2% (within 3 months). The Bank was woefully slow to see that inflation was due to spike 2 years ago and it is now at risk of completely missing the point as inflation falls and consequently over tightening. In actual fact tge damage is already done since monetary policy operates with a lag.

Wake up, Megan and listen to your colleague Dingra, who is the only one who understands all this.”

[Peoplesoft bloke]

It's "Outside IR35 Roles", and I think you're right about the scraping. E.g. this role says:
Salary: £65,000 – £80,000 Base Salary plus bonus and benefits
Workday Senior HRIS Specialist - Outside IR35 Roles Limited

That doesn't sound like an outside contract to me!

Ha ha I have applied for that on Linkedin - I strongly suspect not to hear a dicky bird back. I have worked for Focus on an inside contract before and even then it was like trying to pull teeth to get to speak to anyone or get anything done about anything.

[Fraidycat]

It should be clear by now that I think Megan is completely and utterly wrong, borderline crazy. The U.K. is not the US, for sure. We have lower growth, lower consumption, lower disposable income thanks to structurally higher energy prices, no housing bubble, no stock market bubble,.

Its not just Megan, the City now expects just 2 cuts totalling just 0.5% this year for the UK, from the FT:

"City Traders are no longer fully pricing in the first UK interest rate cut in August and now expect borrowing costs to begin to fall in either that month or September. The two cuts they now expect for this year contrast with the more than six cuts markets anticipated in January. On Thursday the interest rate swaps market fully priced in a cumulative cut by year end of around 0.5 percentage points. Market expectations have shifted in similar fashion in the US and the eurozone

UK consumer price inflation fell to 3.4 per cent in February, its lowest level since 2021, and big declines in household energy bills will drag it down further in the near term. But the BoE’s latest forecasts suggest this drop will be temporary, with domestic price pressures pushing headline CPI back above the central bank’s 2 per cent target for much of the next two to three years"


Plus crude oil is currently $90 and will go over $100 if the tulipe hits the fan in the middle east.

Six rate cuts would have kick started the contract market for sure this year, as clients would have green lit projects that are currently on hold.

[sreed]

Just to be clear, as I mentioned in my post, the comment you’ve quoted (Megan is wrong) isn’t mine, it’s a comment under the FT article

The Swiss central bank cut rates by 0.25% (from 1.75% to 1.5%) a few weeks ago, so you never know!
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rate...ng%20inflation.

Its not just Megan, the City now expects just 2 cuts totalling just 0.5% this year for the UK, from the FT:

[dsc]

[...]rapidly slowing wage growth outside of the minimum wage increase (self inflicted inflation).[...]

Every article I read about rising min wage said that it will cause overall wages to grow as well as suddenly people on lower wages realise they earn minimum wage and so want a raise. Min wage only kicked in beginning of April, so surely it's too quick to be saying that it doesn't affect overall wage growth?