And one with a plan.... Although his plan is now unworkable. This is where we’re at.
I’m not a brexiteer but this is a good overview.
Seems about right.
I’m not a brexiteer but this is a good overview.
1. There are two sides to the "rule out no deal" #Brexit debate - and both are wrong. There is no ruling out no deal. You can delay or revoke, but for as long as talks are in progress, no deal remains the default outcome unless a deal is agreed.
2. Parliament does not have the power to force the PM to ask for an extension. She is well within her rights to let the clock expire. Parliament can only take no deal off the table by voting for a deal.
3. The Brexiters, though, seem to think that no deal is leverage. It isn't. Brussels will not reopen the withdrawal agreement. Unless we extend for the 21 months, there is no chance of reframing negotiations. As far as they are concerned it is a non amendable instrument.
4. If the UK does not ratify a deal by the end of March then the EU will not lift a finger to stop us leaving without a deal. They take the view that the sovereignty of their customs and regulatory territory (as far as Brexit is concerned) is sacrosanct.
5. They know that if the UK walks away we will be forced to grant unilateral concessions as part of our contingency measures so they will retain many of their existing trade preferences without a deal. That, though, in many instances is not reciprocated by the EU.
6. Then within a few weeks when the penny drops of how how exports take a pummelling without a formal agreement, it is we who will be pressing with the most urgency for a deal. There will be internal pressures in the EU but many will be glad to cannibalise UK market share.
7. Being that no deal creates a gaping hole in the EU's frontier, where it will have to employ unsatisfactory remedial measures to keep its promise to ireland, the first condition of opening up any new talks will be the backstop as it is now.
8. The difference then is that it will not go as far as a political declaration ot phase it out. Any and all trust and goodwill is gone. If the UK wants a deal then it will will be confronted with a take or leave it ultimatum. eventually the UK will cave in.
9. Not forgetting that we don't know who would be negotiating any new deal. No deal would collapse the government and nobody is going to vote for a party led by a Brexiter by that point. Certainly not after the first wave of job losses.
10. the notion that "they won't give us a deal if we take no deal off the table" rather overlooks the fact they already have offered us a deal and it's as good as it is ever going to get. All they can stretch to is more statement of intent in the political declaration.
11. No deal has never been credible leverage because this has never really been a negotiation. It was always going to come down to a one sided ultimatum. The EU is a trade superpower, and we are not. There are no other sellers in the market. We can't walk away.
12. One way or another the UK is going to end up with a complex and binding relationship. You either bite the bullet now or you fanny around only to end up taking a major economic hit then to end up with a leash of a deal which is a magnitude worse.
13. You can wail about May's deal and call in BRINO, but eventually you have to wake up and engage with the world as it is. International relations are complex with multiple binding obligations and leaving a 40 year relationship will have loose ends to tie up.
14. Had we never joined the EU we would by now have a relationship similar to that of Switzerland or Norway because we need cooperation agreements on everything from space policy to fisheries surveillance. There is no simplifying the inherently complicated.
15. If we have no deal it won't take us every long at all to realise why much of this trade governance exists and why it is in our interests to have binding commitments on transboundary concerns on anything from trade to air/sea pollution. The relationship will need to evolve.
16. You should by now have worked out that trade is more than just the logistics of trade in goods. It ties in with services and specialist regulated markets. The bare bones international frameworks are never going to be sufficient for a complex economy like ours.
2. Parliament does not have the power to force the PM to ask for an extension. She is well within her rights to let the clock expire. Parliament can only take no deal off the table by voting for a deal.
3. The Brexiters, though, seem to think that no deal is leverage. It isn't. Brussels will not reopen the withdrawal agreement. Unless we extend for the 21 months, there is no chance of reframing negotiations. As far as they are concerned it is a non amendable instrument.
4. If the UK does not ratify a deal by the end of March then the EU will not lift a finger to stop us leaving without a deal. They take the view that the sovereignty of their customs and regulatory territory (as far as Brexit is concerned) is sacrosanct.
5. They know that if the UK walks away we will be forced to grant unilateral concessions as part of our contingency measures so they will retain many of their existing trade preferences without a deal. That, though, in many instances is not reciprocated by the EU.
6. Then within a few weeks when the penny drops of how how exports take a pummelling without a formal agreement, it is we who will be pressing with the most urgency for a deal. There will be internal pressures in the EU but many will be glad to cannibalise UK market share.
7. Being that no deal creates a gaping hole in the EU's frontier, where it will have to employ unsatisfactory remedial measures to keep its promise to ireland, the first condition of opening up any new talks will be the backstop as it is now.
8. The difference then is that it will not go as far as a political declaration ot phase it out. Any and all trust and goodwill is gone. If the UK wants a deal then it will will be confronted with a take or leave it ultimatum. eventually the UK will cave in.
9. Not forgetting that we don't know who would be negotiating any new deal. No deal would collapse the government and nobody is going to vote for a party led by a Brexiter by that point. Certainly not after the first wave of job losses.
10. the notion that "they won't give us a deal if we take no deal off the table" rather overlooks the fact they already have offered us a deal and it's as good as it is ever going to get. All they can stretch to is more statement of intent in the political declaration.
11. No deal has never been credible leverage because this has never really been a negotiation. It was always going to come down to a one sided ultimatum. The EU is a trade superpower, and we are not. There are no other sellers in the market. We can't walk away.
12. One way or another the UK is going to end up with a complex and binding relationship. You either bite the bullet now or you fanny around only to end up taking a major economic hit then to end up with a leash of a deal which is a magnitude worse.
13. You can wail about May's deal and call in BRINO, but eventually you have to wake up and engage with the world as it is. International relations are complex with multiple binding obligations and leaving a 40 year relationship will have loose ends to tie up.
14. Had we never joined the EU we would by now have a relationship similar to that of Switzerland or Norway because we need cooperation agreements on everything from space policy to fisheries surveillance. There is no simplifying the inherently complicated.
15. If we have no deal it won't take us every long at all to realise why much of this trade governance exists and why it is in our interests to have binding commitments on transboundary concerns on anything from trade to air/sea pollution. The relationship will need to evolve.
16. You should by now have worked out that trade is more than just the logistics of trade in goods. It ties in with services and specialist regulated markets. The bare bones international frameworks are never going to be sufficient for a complex economy like ours.
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