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Carney says Brexit already costing UK economy £10B per year
Carney says Brexit already costing UK economy £10B per year
Yes, but considering that we're already £10T better off due to the economy growing so much, it's not exactly significant? Anyway, it's a small price to pay for
Yes, but considering that we're already £10T better off due to the economy growing so much, it's not exactly significant? Anyway, it's a small price to pay for
£10T where did you get that figure? Was it on a bus?
Where is the "immediate" recession that was foretold?
AssGuru stated that there would be a recession either the end of 2017 or early 2018. The earliest we can have one now is Mid-2018 ... and honestly, it certainly doesn't feel like we're moving into recession.
It was reported yesterday that unemployment fell again. It's at a 40 year low. Forty years!
The pound has strengthened against the dollar. Inflation looks like it has peaked.
The problem with making hysterical pronouncements of doom is that you look like a bit of a tit when they invariably don't come true.
Where is the "immediate" recession that was foretold?
AssGuru stated that there would be a recession either the end of 2017 or early 2018. The earliest we can have one now is Mid-2018 ... and honestly, it certainly doesn't feel like we're moving into recession.
It was reported yesterday that unemployment fell again. It's at a 40 year low. Forty years!
The pound has strengthened against the dollar. Inflation looks like it has peaked.
The problem with making hysterical pronouncements of doom is that you look like a bit of a tit when they invariably don't come true.
Growth at 1.5% has to be seen within the context of the US and Germany both growing at twice that rate, more worrying is the fact that UK's growth is steadily declining.
Of course it will probably perk up for the next two quarters as it did in 2016 but the overall trajectory is down, and here is the really bad news, the UK has managed to delay leaving the EU for 3 years firstly by not walking into Brussels in 2016 to throw down article 50 in front of the EU commision and secondly by agreeing to a 2 year transition period. The real impact will be felt 18 - 12 months before really leaving. If the transition becomes permanent then the UK will probably manage to maintain a stagnant economy, but that will still mean freedom of movement.
In other words it's a choice between nothing really changing, except the economy stagnates i.e. perma transition or "freedom" followed by a deep recession.
Last edited by BlasterBates; 26 January 2018, 11:39.
Where is the "immediate" recession that was foretold?
AssGuru stated that there would be a recession either the end of 2017 or early 2018. The earliest we can have one now is Mid-2018 ... and honestly, it certainly doesn't feel like we're moving into recession
It was reported yesterday that unemployment fell again. It's at a 40 year low. Forty years!
The pound has strengthened against the dollar. Inflation looks like it has peaked.
The problem with making hysterical pronouncements of doom is that you look like a bit of a tit when they invariably don't come true.
Don't forget that Scoterscot predicted GBP/EUR parity...
Growth at 1.5% has to be seen within the context of the US and Germany both growing at twice that rate, more worrying is the fact that UK's growth is steadily declining.
Not really. It's not worrying at all.
Don't forget that the UK has outpaced most of the EU in terms of growth since 2008. It was unlikely to keep ahead indefinitely. The growth rate in economy's always changes, up a bit, down a bit, up a bit. One day we'll have a recession, whether there had been a BREXIT or not. And one day that recession will end and growth will resume.
Given that we are very close to full employment, I'd put more weight on the slower growth being caused by the well documented, and deep-rooted "Productivity Problem" that has beset the UK economy for at least 25 years. A lack of investment in education, skills and technology that has been perpetuated by both Labour and Conservative governments for as long as I can remember.
Don't forget that the UK has outpaced most of the EU in terms of growth since 2008. It was unlikely to keep ahead indefinitely. The growth rate in economy's always changes, up a bit, down a bit, up a bit. One day we'll have a recession, whether there had been a BREXIT or not. And one day that recession will end and growth will resume.
Given that we are very close to full employment, I'd put more weight on the slower growth being caused by the well documented, and deep-rooted "Productivity Problem" that has beset the UK economy for at least 25 years. A lack of investment in education, skills and technology that has been perpetuated by both Labour and Conservative governments for as long as I can remember.
Before the referendum was called London was booming. Goldman Sachs. JP Morgan and Bloomberg had plans to make London their HQ. When the referendum was called their plans were put on hold and now a few months after the referendum they plan to reverse those plans and consolidate in New York instead.
The week after the referendum on the radio in Frankfurt it was announced that a local chemical manufacturer had shelved a plan to build a factory in the UK and was building it in Germany instead.
My sister in law has told me the IT center she works in for a major European manufacturer will be relocated to Barcelona.
Make no mistake the UK would have been booming now without the uncertainty.
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